Atlantic hurricane season will be 'extraordinary,' forecasters warn | Hacker News Reader

Atlantic hurricane season will be 'extraordinary,' forecasters warn

npr.org

40 pointsgeox12 comments

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane202...

> The outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, along with a 10% chance for a near-normal season and a 5% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

The updated 2024 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2024 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th: 17-25 Named Storms 8-13 Hurricanes 4-7 Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 150%-245% of the median

Does anyone have any idea if the hurricanes will eventually hit the U.S. West Coast? Will climate change change the climate so much that the West Coast will eventually see hurricanes?

the Tropical Tidbits video linked here suggests that there will be lower than normal cyclone activity in Pacific band from S. California westward, due to cool waters

Low risk, but never say never. Hilary in 2023 caused a bunch of flooding in SoCal and the NHC sent out a tropical storm warning, but with the California Current keeping the water cold along the west coast there's a pretty big barrier in the way, plus the winds blow away from the coast on average in that region. Hilary is a good example: it was a Cat 4 until it hit the cold water, landed as a Tropical Storm, and lost steam fairly quickly as an organized system (though still had impact via rainfall). Storms might start stronger and get further north, but I don't think it's high on the list of risks.

for the quantitatively engaged

https://berkeleyearth.org/data/

https://climatereanalyzer.org/

And for some more in depth discussion on the models and weather patterns while still being accessible, tropical tidbits released an outlook video this week https://youtu.be/QFID_jfNId4

I’m happy to see Tropical Tidbits in this thread but am also surprised that Levi’s site and content doesn’t appear on HN more often.

It will be interesting to see how this one compares with the 2005 season (that had 28 named storms, and 4 category 5 hurricanes, Katrina among them) and the 2020 season (that had 31, but no category 5 hurricanes).

> the eastern half of the country

For Missouri's sake, I hope they meant eastern seaboard :D

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