I agree that it is less likely.
OTOH, if history is any guide, contracts may not be worth their paper if survival is at stake. It is an open question if the US or the French will risk losing half of their population and most of their cities over UK.
OTOH, if history is any guide, contracts may not be worth their paper if survival is at stake. It is an open question if the US or the French will risk losing half of their population and most of their cities over UK.
But it's not the real reason, of course.
As evidenced by Putin's countless bombastic speeches on the topic (and the simple vacuousness of the claimed NATO threat).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Karaganov#Karaganov_Doc...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Russian_chauvinism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-Russian_nation
When Putin speaks of "The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" -- this is what he's alluding to.