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Comment by stocknoob | Hacker News Reader

You know, you can make money with predictions if you have the conviction.

I also think NVDA is overvalued, but timing is everything. They could stay overvalued for years before coming back down. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" and all that.

Not GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.

really? intel a sideways stock from the 70s is the best long you found in the entire planet? out of all the financial instruments and all the markets and all the categories u actually believe that’s the best pain to gain ratio play

They have their own fabs, a new GPU line, and they're national security critical. they also make pretty good CPUs even if they aren't the best value/$.

Intel literally cant fail because of national security. The government will continuously bail them out which I think is a pretty big advantage, giving them time to figure something out. Theyre cheap as fuck too so tons of upside

MSFT went sideways for like a decade too. Who knows... Intel is doing something the others aren't with building its own fabs. Which arguably carries a lot of risk but it could pay off.

Well, I'm betting on Gelsinger's plan to launch Intel 18A process, and regaining process lead - this should bring Intel's stock price from current $31 to at least $70. Also, it's a hedge against China invading Taiwan and blowing up TSMC, in which case it would probably skyrocket to $100+. In the meantime Intel pays nice dividends.

$869 sale means you sold between March 2024 and last week. Let’s game this out:

100 shares of NVDA at 453 pared down to just profits from 869 sale would mean holding about 48 shares and selling 52 shares. After today’s after hours movement your invested profit would be worth about $48k, or about $6300 more than when you cashed out your initial investment ($41712).

You take that same $41712 and buy INTC between March and now. If it was bought in March then you’re in for something like $43/share or 970 shares. Intel has been sliding since April and is now at $31. Your profit from NVDA has shrunk by nearly 30%. In the worst case (you bought in March rather than April), you’ve given up near $19k in profit by following your convictions. Your gains have gone from 115% (had you held) to potentially as low as 70%. I guess it’s all house money anyways though, right?

I have a 6 figure profit in NVDA shares right now. Cost basis is something like $100. I have considered selling( or at what price I would sell). The problem I have is what could I possibly buy with that profit? Intel hasn't shown that they have a real plan. The move in META seems to have already happened. I don't trust that Alphabet has any idea what they're doing. I could buy more Microsoft or Amazon shares I guess. I wouldn't throw money at these software stocks like Snowflake or the SNOWs of the world. AAPL might be a play if I have the conviction that Tim Cook has an AI plan in place.

In the end I'd probably just take the easy way out and go buy VTSAX and chill.

Your last paragraph: I would recommend this instead: VOO-Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

You're talking about this with benefit of hindsight. When I was selling at $869 I would not know how it will go. And, as a matter of fact, a week or two after I sold NVDA dipped to $700, although temporarily. So, it's just a matter of personal risk tolerance, I guess.

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