UK General Election called for July 4th
bbc.co.uk
bbc.co.uk
If he had waited until 11th July, that would have been between the semis and the final.
Conclusion: he backs England to play in the quarter finals, but not to get as far as the final.
I think a meaningful number of English folk will subconsciously have their vote swayed by how well England do in a football competition, yes.
Also, old people are the Conservative government's key constituency. Old people vote more in the warmer, dryer summer months, than if the government waits until winter.
If they hang on until January 2025 then there's a small -- but real -- risk that the defeat is so bad that the Tory party effectively ceases to exist.
A general reason for doing it is the government isn't really working or passing many laws and some things they want to do seem to be questionable in their effectiveness
For our friends in the USA: in the USA it's common to have a long-term fixed-interest mortgage. In the UK they are limited to a few years, then you have to renew. Because interest rates have risen so much in recent years, people will have to pay much higher mortgage payments when their current fixed-term ends, which is coming due fairly soon for many people. On top of that, because people's other costs have gone up more than incomes generally, that reduces their credit rating at renewal, so their payments may rise even higher than interest alone would suggest, at the same time as their ability to pay is lower than it was a few years ago.
There is a strategic aspect to it. If you assume that your position will become worse in the future you want to capture the moment. This is commonly done from a position of strength. When the opposition is in tatters and your poll numbers are great you want to "lock" the numbers in. I'm not sure if that logic applies now. Maybe they suspect their polling will get worse with time?
I know this is a slice on the opinion of a small set of people, but I still find interesting that this might mean that the government might still be willing to postpone certain measures for effect of the election.
There was also concern from Conservative activists about campaigning in cold and wet November weather - these people are mostly retired.
> Privately, there is confusion in at least some parts of the Conservative Party about why Rishi Sunak decided to call the general election sooner than was widely expected. “I just don’t understand it,” one Conservative MP said. “The economy is improving. Why not give that more time to bed in?”
However you have to question this timing, as everyone thought he'd hang on until the end, so he either things something bad will come out about them soon, or vice versa, something bad will come out about Labour soon, and wants to capitalize on that.
It's quite a surpise.
Prior to that Act, and since it was repealed, I don't think there's any clear mandate saying when an election must be held. Only convention, that the Prime Minister calls it when they feel the time is right, and it tends to be around the 4-5 years mark.
It's a bit of a surprise the PM has called it for this summer at short notice, after saying he wouldn't for so long.
Pollsters and commentators anticipate a sweeping change of government from a large Tory majority (right wing, Brexit-will-solve-our-propblems, blame-the-immigrants flavour, "party of business" yet tanked the economy and terrible for business these last few years, cruel to disabled and/or poor people) that most of the country seems to be fed up with by now, to a predicted large Labour majority (left wing, that few really trust because they avoid committing to a clear policy direction, perhaps for election strategy reasons). Even for people who don't like Labour, widespread tactical anti-Tory voting is likely.
It's been in the interests of the PM and Tory party to delay the election as long as they can, hoping for something good for them to happen, like a major improvement in the economy, or some world event, or some political embarrassment to Labour, to improve their chances and maximise the number of seats they will get when the election takes place.
So commentators have been expecting the election to be near the end of this year or early next year, in the strategic party-political interests of the current government pary, while saying that it would be better for the country if it were sooner.
It's a surprise that the PM has decided to get on with it after all. Some MPs in his party are surprised. The opposition Labour party is delighted.
I think this will change the mood of the country quickly - before the election. Crudely, although there is a wide spread of opinions and allegiances, for a lot of people change represents hope because they blame the current government and party for so many difficulties. There are many distressed and unhappy people, still recovering from effects of Covid-19, hard Brexit, and in economic precarity due to rising costs, shrinking wages and, for a chunk of the population, disappearing savings and unusually high levels of small business bankruptcy, all of which has occurred under the current party (though not the same PM, and the last two PMs were not elected by the people).
There are a million places to discuss politics on the internet, but none of them quite have the perspective that HN does. As a relatively long-term reader (I don't think I commented at all for the first decade or so), I find that these days my horizons are expanded more by the non-technical threads on the site.
In particular I was looking forward to learning how the HN crowd in the USA and Europe view our politics at the moment. I'm not sure where else I would go to learn that; I suppose could look on Reddit or a clone, but any unique views there tend to be drowned out by memetics.
I think the parent is right, even if it's still "the conservatives" there have been plenty of governments in the 15-odd years that the tories, as a party, have clung to power.
One government since 2019.as far as I understand the term.
We've had a few prime ministers though.