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Comment by voisin | Hacker News Reader

I haven’t experienced much turbulence in maybe 15 years, whereas I remember in the 90s I experienced tons of turbulence in almost every flight. I am not sure if this is something modern airliners have been designed to deal with or avoid, or not.

Has anyone else experienced this or is my memory just faulty?

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Radar, planning software and routing have all gotten much, much better in the last decade.

I believe even as late as 2007 or 2008, ATC was limited in the deviations it could do due to the track system still in use in certain areas. Once the ARTCC/TRACONs were updated, ATC in the US now has way more capability and capacity to re-route traffic around storms. I forget when the last ARTCC refresh/rebuild happened.

It has gotten better. I, perhaps erroneously, attribute it to better communication between flights/ATC, improved understanding of wind shear, and better forecast models.

Some things never change, though. Front Range of Colorado on a summer afternoon? Gonna be at least a few bumps.

I travelled a lot by plane back when I was working in Luxembourg going back and forth from Italy.

I'll always remember Luxair's tiny Bombardier DHC-8-400 [0], lot of turbulence on those every single time, I guess because they are so small compared to other planes. I had the impression that they could be easily thrown around in the sky, and don't get me started on the noise of those propellers! The combination of the two made it quite the experience.

[0]: https://airlinesfleet.com/luxair-fleet-bombardier-dash-8-q40...

Those turboprop planes don't fly as high as turbofan plane. The Dash-8 tops out at around 25-27k ft. compared to ~40k ft. for most modern jetliners.

When you are going over the alps, that extra altitude can really help.

One thing that I experienced is that planes before flew at lower altitude, so I believe there was more turbulence overall.

Also I remember in the late 80s going right through a storm while in mid flight during a long flight. That hasn't happened to me in the last 15 years. And I flight around 8 times a year.

Seems relatively constant according to this graph: https://icao.usmission.gov/air-carrier-turbulence-related-in...

that graph doesn't show severity

that seems to be just total number of incidents, not corrected for increased air traffic over the last 30 years

Good point.

Huh.

>> The study also highlighted a new product, a turbulence nowcast, that combines numerous data sources to produce forecasts that are updated every 15 minutes – providing air carriers, all users of the National Airspace System and the air traffic controllers who support them – timely and critical safety information about locations and severity of potential turbulence. The turbulence nowcast is not yet widely used so the NTSB recommended the FAA and the NWS work together to fully implement its adoption and use in the national airspace system.

We spent an extra 20 minutes on the tarmac at O'Hare last week whilst they replotted around a major thunderstorm over Canada.

My recollection of bad turbulence is that same as yours - a flight to Seattle in '98 was the last time I can remember bad turbulence.

I’d guess better routing around weather.

Also, I recall worse turbulence over land and smoother over the ocean. I’m assuming that’s just random luck and not a real thing?

There is more flexibility on routes over the middle of a trip than near the departure or arrival constraint. Flight over large bodies of water tends to be away from the arrival or departure airport.

Going 100 miles out of your way for weather at a point that's 100 miles from the airport is a big diversion. Going 100 miles laterally out of your way at the midpoint of a 2500nm trip is about an 8 nm deviation (4nm out and 4nm back).

Nah, I remember this as well. I seem to recall many flights having bags in the seat pockets in case you had to throw up.

Luckily with better predictive modeling most flights can avoid these rough patches now. There’s even some apps you can download to see the turbulence forecasts and pilot report maps.

According to a study reported by the BBC, it should be getting worse thanks to climate change: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65844901

Probably biased memory and better weather radar allowing planes to avoid turbulence more often.

The data seems to show a significant increase in clear-air turbulence, apparently due to increased energy in the system from climate change. I have heard people say "when you add energy into a chaotic system, it becomes more chaotic."

> Moderate turbulence increased by 37%, and light turbulence increased by 17% during this period. Other flight routes over the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic also significantly increased.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2023/11/20/more-cl...

It may actually be improved radar tech, so finding smooth air is easier

The article states “ Turbulence is most commonly caused by aircraft flying through cloud but there is also "clear air" turbulence which is not visible on a jet's weather radar nor is it possible to predict.”

So are we just avoiding the storms? Or are “clear air” turbulence situations decreasing?

I thought that the aircraft had LiDAR on the front of them as a way to avoid incoming turbulence. I could be wrong.

They don’t. There is a weather radar but it can only detect density of water.

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