Geoffrey Hinton "godfather of AI" says that AI will surpass human intelligence | Hacker News Reader

Geoffrey Hinton "godfather of AI" says that AI will surpass human intelligence

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20 pointssizzle16 comments

Well, duh, this is basically the goal of Artificial Intelligence. With no timeframe, well, sure, that seems plausible.

But we're not there yet, and we're not close either. I do think that recent experimentations and products can be useful and maybe also serve as a brick for something more powerful, but this is not simply a scaling problem at this stage.

I think that many of us noticed how the hype is currently cooling down, a new AI winter is also plausible.

Managing expectations should be the norm in this field, given its history...

There's a timeframe. It's the first 5 words of the tweet.

I think we're far closer to AGI than most might realize. It possible that these systems may self-improve, and companies like OpenAI may already be doing this very thing. If that's the case, the time to AGI will decrease at an exponential, compounding rate.

EDIT: cite source

I have yet to see any evidence of this. To the contrary, we have seen for years that advances in LLMs require orders of magnitude more parameters/power for each generation. Neural architecture search has been underwhelming. RLHF seems to have regressed models like GPT3.5+, rather than improving them. And recently, researchers concluded that multi-modal models require exponentially more data for each extra "mode" being added to the model.[0]

Even in my own experimentation, I've tried to get some AGI-like behavior, and it just isn't there. I have convinced GPT4, for instance, to generate XML source for an SVG, but it looks nothing like what I describe.

I'd argue that these models don't generalize well at all, and I'd bet that, like with Moore's Law, advances in AI will require continual discovery of incremental new innovations and occasionally new architectures.

[0]https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125

Geoffrey Hinton's campaign to stay relevant is souring what was a nice legacy in the development of AI.

A click bait headline, but watching the video and what he said, everything seems somewhat reasonable.

If the experts don’t agree on risks, then clearly there’s a non-zero chance.

On some tasks, computing machines passed us by a while ago. I already ask an LLM several questions a day as it has a much “broader” intelligence than I do. Many times the code it suggests is exactly what I was about to write - sometimes better. The capabilities of generative AI today were in the realm of science fiction just a few years ago.

Artificial intelligence will continue to evolve faster than human intelligence. Sticking our head in the sand and acting like we will always be “superior” seems fool-hardy.

Already it knows more about me on most subjects.

Fortunately 'intelligence' is a hand-wavey subject!

a calculator from half a century ago surpasses human intelligence too

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