How Far Are We from AGI | Hacker News Reader

How Far Are We from AGI

arxiv.org

14 pointsbelter7 comments

I would say we don’t really know what AGI is.

As humans, we are basically working with an N of 1 and trying to figure out what is the essential part.

At one time, being able to do math might have seemed to be it. Maybe playing chess? Maybe having a conversation (Eliza)? Mane generating art? Maybe generating summaries? They are impressive but not quite it.

We are like the shopper who only has a vague idea of what they are looking for but can tell after some inspection when it is not quite it.

I think developments in AI have been helpful in helping us learn more about human intelligence as well.

This is like being in 1200 and asking "how far we are from flying like birds".

One very important lesson I learned while talking with a physics professor, is that often, breakthrough in science are made either by chance, or because of things in other fields.

I'll repeat that same complaint: study cognitive science, neuroscience, and psychology, and have more multi-domain/epistemology stuff about a definition of intelligence, and ask broader questions, especially in the realm of evolution. STOP testing ML models on GPUs.

Things seem to be speeding up though. Look at the short period of time we went from flying a basic plane to landing on the moon. It was not hundreds of years between those two events. Perhaps as human population grows the "by chance" part increases/improves? More humans means more scientific die rolls.

But yeah who knows if we will stumble upon the solution to AGI next week or in 1000 years.

If anyone is interested, there are markets on Manifold trying to predict this: https://manifold.markets/ai

To be honest, even as a participant and enthusiast, I’m not sure how useful or accurate it is. I can push the prediction by 13 years with $1 worth of Manifold currency.

First sentence:

> The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly impacted human society, driving significant advancements in multiple sectors.

OK this is not serious science.

Remove the word "serious". It's an op-ed, we can take it for what it is. The opinion of a scientist isn't science, but might be interesting.

Let me clarify: I am not going to waste my time reading the rambling of someone drunk on the AI kool aid.

> profoundly impacted human society,

So far there are fears, well founded fears but any impact is yet to be measured and "profound" has certainly not happened yet.

> driving significant advancements in multiple sectors.

ROTLFMAO. There's nothing more to be said. What is happening is asshole corporate owners destroying their own companies by firing competent workers and replacing them with a bullshit printer. Not quite sure how that's an "advancement".

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