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>Otherwise you're optimizing for criteria other than "selecting whether to invest in Apple or Uber.

They arent single-mindedly optimizing to invest in the next apple or uber at all cost! They are balancing it against the need to screen out no-name bums that look and sound the same.

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All I'm saying is that a "screen out the bums" heuristic is also a "screen out some of the wealthiest companies to ever exist" heuristic then it's probably not rooted in anything other than vibes.

It is a huge amount of vibes. There is no scientific way to know the future and predict rare events. The whole VC business model isnt about having good predictions. It is about being a few percent more accurate than random chance.

If you can win a coin flip 51% of the time instead of 50, you have a viable business model.

Perfection isnt the goal.

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