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The first AGI will probably take way too much compute to have a significant effect, unless there is a revolution in architecture that gets us fast and cheap AGI at once the AGI revolution will be very slow and gradual.

A model that is as good as an average human but costs $10 000 per effective manhour to run is not very useful, but it is still an AGI.

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> A model that is as good as an average human but costs $10 000 per effective manhour to run is not very useful, but it is still an AGI.

Geohot (https://geohot.github.io/blog/) estimates that a human brain equivalent requires 20 PFLOPS. Current top-of-the-line GPUs are around 2 PFLOPS and consume up to 500W. Scaling that linearly results in 5kW, which translates to approximately 3 EUR per hour if I calculate correctly.

That is if the first model we make is as efficient as a human.

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