Rates are not going to 1% again unless there's another financial crisis. 0.25%-0.5% cuts are not going to save over-leveraged people.
If you can issue at 6% instead of 7%, your interest expense on that debt has decreased by 16%.
I don't think anyone expects say the fed funds rate to go to 1%, but it could go to 3.5% or 4%. [0]
[0] Fed funds: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1mM6j [-] Const 10yr Treasury https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1nYkd
Only since the 2nd half of 2023 do I see some listings have very minor price cuts and stay on the market slightly longer.
Housing prices need to fall ~10% across the board before we can say the rate increases had a measurable effect.
Source: I'm looking for a countryside property and scrape Redfin for a few thousand listings every day.
Granted this will be different depending on where you live. This chart for the median sales price of homes sold in the US[1] seems to think it's still trending slightly downward.
Housing prices around me is up 25% since 2021 and show no signs of slowing down.
Interest rates aren't high by historical terms. They are about .75 points above the historical average.
For a long time, we had high asking price and low interest rate. That was mostly acceptable to people.
Low asking price and high interest would probably also be acceptable.
Now we have both parameters (relatively) high, which just sucks. And yeah, supply is the big constraint, no question.