We could have a superintelligence in months. 1% catastrophic risk is too large

> We already have (weak) AGI

No. We all intuitively know what AGI means, we've read/seen enough science fiction. It doesn't have to be "superintelligent", but it does need independent agency. None of the recent AI stuff is anything approaching that.

I am not so impressed with the Turing test. The ability to listen actively and change the subject when your are over your head will get you pretty far in conversation.

idk squealing about exponentials seems like a thing someone whose never seen a sigmoid does…

Yes, but you still don't have the front of the brain yet. that's the key.