My thoughts exactly. On the other hand, an email address I used with Usenet ca 1999–2001 has had a consistent flood of spam. I think most spammers are using the same 20+-year-old list of emails.
The email address on my website doesn’t even get stuff that goes to the spam filter. Nothing, nada zilch.
I do think that there are some mailing lists that get generated by trying to guess emails, brute-forcing gmail addresses by trying dictionary attacks of the FIRSTNAME.LASTNAME variety or 1–10 letters. I get a tiny amount of spam sent to a domain@domain.com address I have, but that’s typically on the order of one message a year.
And all else aside, the overall volume of spam email has declined dramatically, even ignoring the effect of the gmail spam filter. I’m guessing that email as a spam vector just doesn’t make sense anymore and most of what goes out is a mix of 419 scammers trying to make their quotas and would-be scammers who’ve been scammed into buying that 20-year-old list of emails.