Japanese angst as India set to overtake as 4th largest economy

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12 points·smgit··5 comments

This means nothing to Japan and this should only be interpreted as India developing.

It now has the largest population so, everything else being equal, it should ultimately be the largest or second largest economy on the planet. This does not imply that others are doing poorly.

I was just about to say. India has more than 10 times the population, you cannot compete with that as countries get closer in terms of development.

Rationality has nothing to do with it. Look at US reaction to China.

Japan's economy has been pretty stagnant since before I was born. So scared perhaps, but shocked is a ridiculous word to describe a clear trend that started nearly 30 years ago.

As much of India catching up as JP falling down.

JP's 2023 nominal/dollar GDP @4.2T is like 65% of previous peak @6.2T due to USD strenghening. USD strengthened another 15% in 2024 so JP nominal GDP probably 55% of peak now. Per capita GDP dropped from 50k usd to 34k USD. Apart from FX drama that makes JP buying imports/going abroad difficult (while dealing with tourists), also general sign that JP's effort to improve business enviroment last couple decades have been failing. They can try to strenghten yen / but then lose exports to bother producers.

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