How bad are satellite megaconstellations for astronomy?
leonarddavid.com
leonarddavid.com
The article definitely gets this part right:
> “Some astronomers see this as a true ‘hair on fire’ emergency, heralding irretrievable losses to space science; others present a more sanguine face, depicting this as yet another challenge to be surmounted in surveying a decreasingly pristine sky,” Koplow remarks.
Being involved in both space and astronomy plants me squarely in the latter camp. It takes a bit more work and software, but having so many satellites in space is a surmountable challenge for terrestrial astronomers. (Not to mention, these days some of the best astronomy is performed by telescopes in space, so astronomy overall benefits by having easier access to space.)
Sorry, but one of the two example images (https://noirlab.edu/public/images/iotw1946a/) is a single 333-second exposure with a modern survey camera, the Dark Energy Camera. This is not particularly long nor does it represent some outmoded observational strategy. Large, wide-field imaging sky surveys (such as the upcoming Rubin Observatory) are among the highest-profile ground-based astronomy projects today.
Masking and stacking can mitigate the problem but it does not of course compensate for the lost area and sensitivity. And the brightest satellites (like BlueWalker) saturate the readout electronics and spoil the whole exposure.
Narrow field instruments (such as spectrographs) have less geometric chance of seeing a satellite but tend to take longer exposures (tens of minutes), so there is a greater loss of telescope time when a streak does happen.
Even space telescopes are affected by streaks (https://www.space.com/hubble-images-spoiled-starlink-satelli...).
> It takes a bit more work and software
Equivalently, it takes more money and time. That just means less science, given flat to declining funding from Congress.
Is this only a problem in systems that aren't aware of where the satellites will be? I naively assume that, if the system knew, it could start exposing in the next clear window. I naively assume that the window is almost always clear, especially for an individual sensor.
I’d guess terrestrial light pollution is a much bigger problem.
>so just grab 5% more images.
You say it like major observatory telescopes are sitting idle, but they're not. In practice what actually happens is you lose 5% of your scientific data return. >terrestrial light pollution
Problem is that it's global vs local, so our normal solution for terrestrial light pollution (build telescopes in a remotely populated area) doesn't work.Believe it or not, actually using 100% capacity on the big expensive telescope you paid for isn't some brilliant unheard-of suggestion like people seem to think. This Dunning-Kruger idea always seems to crop up whenever this particular topic is in the news.
There simply isn't any "slop in the system" that lets you get that 5% (and climbing!) back "for free." If there was, then that inefficiency should be fixed regardless of the situation with megaconstellations.
And who knows, necessity is the mother of invention so one of those grad students could invent a way around it.
>Doing 5% less science is an acceptable cost
That's certainly one choice we can make as a society.However my point is we shouldn't delude ourselves that there's some "easy" fix, therefore the cost should actually by counted as zero. This defense mechanism is misguided and uninformed, yet it's shockingly common to have it (or some variation) crop up when discussing this particular topic.
Personally, I blame the current tribalize-all-the-things trend. You're either on Team Starlink or Team Astronomy. Only two options. Pick a side, we're at war!!!
> And who knows,... one of those grad students could invent a way around it.
See? Shockingly common. :DEven when we don't even have an idea, nevertheless we feel oddly compelled to suggest that maybe there's an easy ("grad student") solution that makes the scientific cost simply go away.
If we're willing to pay the cost in lost scientific data, then let's do it and say so. We shouldn't live in (oh so tempting!) denial about the downsides. That's all I'm saying.
As for the system problem, that is solved by building 5% more observing capacity. Or, more realistically, starting new telescope projects slightly earlier. This really isn't as complicated as you're trying make it out to be. Pot, meet kettle.
>As for the system problem, that is solved by building 5% more observing capacity.
If this is to somehow come from existing funding sources, I'll need a moment to pick myself up off the floor laughing. ;D Obviously those sources are already at their budget appetite.Or maybe this an Efficient Market / Pigouvian suggestion, where megaconstellaton operators pay (and pass on to their customers) into an Astronomical Reparation Fund worth ~5% of current global astronomy funding, to be distributed to astronomical grants and construction of new observatories? Because sure, that seems fair.
If you truly believe (as do I) that we value internet access more than the loss of scientific data, then you'll agree the internet users can easily reimburse scientists for the damage and still come out ahead. "You broke it, you buy it."
> If you add ~5% to your grant proposal
..then I'll add 10% to mine!It's a race to the bottom. Eventually folks get sick of it, so they enact rules and enforcement mechanisms to prevent padding. In the end all we accomplish is transforming an efficient & high-trust system into an overhead-laden, low-trust system.
Even if that was the case, that seems a very poor design for a sensor and not really an issue of satellites. If a satellite streak can saturate your well, then so could a decently dense star field.
Do they blow out the individual pixels? Sure. But you just stack.
You don't lose sensitivity just because your stack rejected pixels, that's not how stacking works. You wind up with a tiny bit more noise, how much more depends on your capture. But not lower sensitivity, stacking isn't just average an area
https://www.space.com/bluewalker-3-prototype-satellite-brigh...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06672-7
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/abba3e/...
Also note that BlueWalker 3, like most low-earth orbit satellites, is only visible during "terminator conditions", when the satellite itself is illuminated by the sun but the telescope is still in darkness. Those times are typically an hour or so after sundown or an hour or so before sunrise. So one solution is to schedule astronomy for the middle of the night, when none of these low earth satellites will lit by the sun at all. Which certainly increases the costs of astronomy, since you can't use your telescope for as many hours per day.
Or, just use your space object catalog to look elsewhere in the sky when bright satellites happen to be in the sky during terminator illumination conditions. Which I see is one of the things your last link, "Mitigation of LEO Satellite Brightness and Trail Effects on the Rubin Observatory LSST", suggests!
https://ast-science.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022-03-1...
SpaceX has offered their space-rated mirror technology at cost to other satellite manufacturers, but it seems AST SpaceMobile hasn't taken them up on the offer. I can't see any mirrored surfaces on BlueWalker 3.
>that means from all other spots on earth it will be extremely dim
The second paper I linked (see Figure 1) shows a minimum magnitude after array deployment of 5.5 magnitude, from multiple observatories at multiple locations on the Earth. That's still 10 times brighter than the IAU limit. >just look elsewhere in the sky
The hottest thing right now is whole-sky surveys like Vera Rubin (which are important because they can alert other telescopes to transient events), which can't really do that because they're already looking at... the whole sky.Let me translate that a bit: "So one solution is to just eliminate 20% of all available observing time."
Exactly. I do a LOT of astrophotography and satellite trails are actually very easy to get rid of. Even the stupidest, most naive outlier rejection techniques, such as taking a stack of tracked images, finding their mean and standard deviation, throwing out any data points outside of 2 standard deviations, and then re-averaging, will get rid of the satellites very cleanly. You can go to more advanced techniques such as doing linear fits and RANSAC and whatnot, but you get the idea.
NOT doing any outlier rejection, just taking the mean of all the images will show the satellite tracks, but very dimly. The people who are trying to make noise on social media deliberately and disingenuously take the max() instead of the mean() to make the problem seem worse than it is.
That said -- in all of my imaging sessions, aircraft are a much, much, much bigger problem than satellites, and still easy to deal with. Yet nobody makes any noise about aircraft.
Instrument development has to first occur on earth-- including the research that lets us know which things will yield results deployed in space.
Astronomy aside, fleets of satellites once they turn to junk may eventually make further launching problematic.
On very rare occasions, a launch malfunctions in such a way that the satellites end up in unintended orbits that do turn into long-term junk, but this is not the norm.
Where is SpaceX offering to put up a billion dollars worth of space observatories to offset their pollution of a public good?
Their performance at cryogenic temperatures is quite good which is one reason why currently in design/construction scientific instruments are still using them.
And in those instruments serious overload from shiny satellites is not just a little streak that can be easily excluded. https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2020/04/aa37501-...
If a satellite is anywhere close to your target object in a frame you are using for photometry (measuring the amount of light), the frame is ruined, because it adds noise.
> Or they can just use that information for better scheduling: wait a minute or two to image a particular spot, so there won't be satellites in the field of view.
Which means more time and effort, and ultimately money needs to be spent on scheduling observations to avoid the thousands of these satellites.
And sometimes it isn't an option. What if a GRB happens in the same field of view as one of these satellites and you want to observe it as soon as possible?
Now there are some types of observations that won't be impacted that much. If you can tolerate scheduling around it, or throwing away some of your frames it is just a minor annoyance. But a lot of observations are also more sensitive to such disruptions.
Yeah, what if? I mean, you probably missed the GRB, sure, but apart from that, you'll be fine and you can wait for the next one, or find a data from somewhere else.
Public access satellites. The FCC requires broadcast licensees to demonstrate that they're acting "in the public interest". Should private rocket launches have to give a minimum amount of their payload to research and non-profit purposes?
The elephant in the room is that launching one Hubble per year to a Hubble-like orbit only uses about 1% of SpaceX's current annual demonstrated launch capacity, and the actual reason people are upset has little to do with the actual impact on astronomy and more do with wanting to punish a certain CEO. One new space telescope every year would completely revolutionize the field, yet he'd barely notice. Better think of something else.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_National_Reconnaissance_O...
If we instead design something to be mass-produced at a cost more commensurate with that of a Falcon 9 launch, then it may well be much better than Hubble in terms of bang for the buck, but it won't be as capable as Hubble in absolute terms. Even so, although Falcon 9 is very cost effective per unit weight compared to past rockets, it does not have a large payload volume compared to launch vehicles used for previous large space telescopes, and volume is usually what you need for space telescopes (because big mirrors are constrained by volume, not weight).
Once Starship becomes fully operational it will completely transform the landscape because it is not only low cost but the interior payload bay volume is much larger than existing rockets in all dimensions.
It is wide field, and these constellations cannot just be stacked out.
You think you are more informed than you are.
https://www.lsst.org/content/lsst-statement-regarding-increa...
It is wide field, and these constellations cannot just be stacked out.
You think you are more informed than you are.
Trust me, I'm an astrophotographer, you can check my website in my profile, I know what I'm talking about here.
Ones getting a subjectively good image where the other is getting an objectively good quantitative measurement.
Do the software "tricks" really translate that well. If they did, these terrestrial telescopes wouldn't engineered to the tune of billions.
I agree my aim is to make pretty pictures, and professional astronomy is to take accurate imagery, but up until I'm making subjective calls about colors, they're not too far apart before the image is stretched to a non linear histogram.
After all, I can't build pretty pictures on crappy data. Astrophotography is a heck of a lot of math
If the satellites don't disrupt it, light pollution will anyway, or best case, it will be disrupted by atmospheric pollution.
There's no lack of clear skies in space.
There are so many things that you can only conceivably do from the ground. You can build vastly larger telescopes on the ground, you can install far heavier instruments (like cameras and spectrographs) on them, you can upgrade and repair components much more easily. You can build massive arrays of radio telescopes. You get the point.
There are some things you can only do from space, or that are better in space, but saying that everything will be done in space is like saying we only need laptops and don't need datacenters. You need both.
I'm just not seeing the argument for there being any telescope function that wouldn't be better done in orbit, at Starship payload prices.
There’s a much longer list of large radio based telescopes which have minimal advantages in space to the point where we haven’t launched any, and they are also negatively impacted by constellations. Also, several types of observations don’t really benefit from being in space. If you want to track killer asteroids space doesn’t provide much advantage even if you could get there for 100$/kg.
IMO the issue here isn’t satellites, it’s that they can harm multi billion dollar investments at zero cost to themselves. If you’re very clearly causing 10’s of millions in damages you really should be compensating the people affected.
What if they could be put behind the Moon, completely shielding them from Earth RF emissions? It's been a cost-prohibitive idea now, but might not be for much longer.
edit: italicized above. The Webb ended up costing $10 billion, so the savings could be even larger
You could build Webb for vastly, vastly less money if it launched on Starship, not just per unit of mass; volume is at much less of a premium in the new regime.
You can’t quite fit ELT pre-constructed into a single Starship, it’s true. But it’s built out of segmented mirrors. It doesn’t have to arrive on station in one piece.
B: yeah we're hurting you but if we didn't, A & C would
C: yeah we're hurting you but if we didn't, A & B would
I guess it’s nobody’s fault then
But well, any one is free to go fight the tide.
That mirror size pails in comparison to what can be accomplished via ground based observatories for much, much cheaper.
And the available modes of operation are completely different between space and ground. For example, space observatories are using decades old instrumentation techniques, hardware, and software. And that's just for starters.
We cannot do astronomy via space exclusively.
For me personally, I never wanted to see something like Starlink with my bare eyes, and I have several times. It's beyond annoying to me that a company has been able to unilaterally pollute the Earth's sky.
Because it had to get launched folded up, because the launch vehicles were so space- and mass-constrained. The unfolding mechanism was enormously complicated and added to much of the cost.
Now we can send up bigger, heavier objects for much less money. The 6.5m mirror fits comfortably inside Starship's cargo bay, unfolded. JWST is a one-off clockwork masterpiece; future space telescopes will come off an assembly line. There will be thousands in orbit, pointed at every part of the heavens simultaneously.
Yes, JSWT was launched into a L2 transfer orbit and not LEO, but from the above margins there is probably enough spare capacity for this.
The 39-meter primary mirror has 798 1.4-meter segments, each individually adjustable. The scaffolding required to hold all the segments is "significant" and must be assembled in orbit. We would stick this out next to the James Webb at L2, which means we would need the ability to travel to L2 to construct this mythical orbital extremely large telescope.
With our current technology, we can build ELT on Earth for a fraction of the cost of putting it in orbit.
It is much simpler to build the telescope equivalent of IKEA flatpack furniture and assemble it on-site than it is to build it and then move it.
Why? Just take existing ion engine designs but use a lot of them.
But it's beside the point. Such a singular mega-telescope would no longer be the only way to do astronomy in space. A world of radically lower launch costs gives more possibilities. We could have a fleet of thousands of independent small/medium sized space telescopes. That way, we wouldn't have to carefully ration imaging time between competing astronomy projects anymore. High quality data would become cheap and abundant, procured on-demand.
Electronics, sensors, and consumables fail or run out, which means you need to be able to get there to fix things. Then, as research projects change, you need to change instruments.
Yes, one could have thousands of 1-5 m telescopes. A terrestrial scope is about an order of magnitude cheaper than an orbiting telescope. So, the big question is who will pay to replace the thousands of scopes in that size range that are already operating on Earth.
Rationing will still needed (Research projects always exceed the number of available scopes). High-quality data, will not be as cheap or abundant as you think it might be. With the number of scopes we are talking about and the sensors that astronomers use, we can expect hundreds or thousands of petabytes a second of data. How will we get that data down from orbit?
A practical example this volume of data comes from the event horizon telescope. I could describe the firehose of firehoses but this paper from supermicro does a much better job of it https://www.supermicro.com/white_paper/white_paper_Black_Hol...
This is just one project. Could you imagine a thousand of these astronomical fire hoses running at the same time in orbit?
The next issue is where these telescopes should be placed. The more we learn about running telescopes in orbit, the more we realize that they need to be placed very far from Earth to increase the observable sky and the length of time one can study a chunk of it. As I said above, consumables need to be replaced, sensors need to be changed for the observing program, boils down to how you are going to get a repair crew out to wherever the telescopes are.
So launch another. Launch capacity is getting cheap... let's use it.
Consider that 1% of SpaceX's annual launch capacity is enough to put one Hubble in orbit every year. Instead of sending astronauts to fix the fucked-up mirror, you just launch one with a not-broken mirror.
We as a planet don't even build that many ground-based telescopes with a 2.5m+ mirror each year. Think about how astronomy would change if you could just take every telescope we build today and put it in space.
This scope is not built for space travel. This model for space telescopes from NASA put a price tag on all the major components for building and operating a single space telescope is counted in billions. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20110015780/downloads/20...
A couple of things not covered in other comments are the costs of mission control and end-of-life deorbiting. It is far cheaper to rent a car, drive to an observatory, mount your evolving experiment on scope, and debug it on-site than to put the same experiment in orbit. Terrestrial telescope mission control is ad hoc and usually in a heated/air-conditioned shack on the mountaintop.
That's going to change soon. The reason the ELT needs individually adjustable panels is to provide corrections for refraction in the atmosphere as it swirls around. A space-ELT doesn't need that (well, maybe some cheap slow actuators to set the focus on a large non-rigid mirror).
As the cost of launches drop, we will hit a point where it is cheaper to put the telescope in space where you don't need those expensive atmosphere correctors.
It's only barely technically feasible to construct these 30-m telescopes on the ground. The idea that they can be constructed in space is just fanciful.
Like I said: citations.
> Now we can send up bigger, heavier objects for much less money.
This hasn't even been demonstrated.
It is because you did not start your own re-usable space vehicle company. Bezos did but thus far he seems to treat it as a billionaire's toy, throwing a few fellow class members just over the Kármán line. There's a few others making attempts to actually get to space - Rocket Labs etc. - but mostly it comes down to Musk's creation which opened the door to radically lower costs, i.e. without them the usual suspects would have had no reason to keep on pushing 70's technology at whatever price they manage to extract from the governments and the market.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-space-launches-low-e...
That's pretty good for theory.
Are you sure about that?
If you can launch a hundred tons to orbit for $5M, you can just make a huge dumb cheap telescope and throw a dozen of them up there. Quantity covers a multitude of sins.
Well, technically, I suppose you could argue that the direct launch costs are small. However, most of the cost of the telescope itself are driven by the high launch costs.
That's the classic problem for satellites: Launch is expensive, so you can't afford to fail. So you have to use mil-spec everything. Every screw has to come with a piece of paper attesting to the provenance of the chromium used to make the stainless steel. Every system has to be built and tested and have triple redundancy. You have to use teflon-insulated wires, because god forbid anything outgases while on orbit. You have to over-build everything, and test all the vibration modes on those giant vibration tables NASA owns. So now "the satellite is expensive". Oh, and since the satellite is expensive, the launcher can't afford to fail and costs just spiral out of control.
But look what happens when you have cheap launches: You don't care if the satellite has a 1% chance of failing. If it does, learn from your mistake, make that one thing better and launch again. Now that you only need two nines instead of five, all of your costs go down. You can use regular-grade chips, and hardware store screws. Instantly the price of everything drops by several orders of magnitude.
>> Astronomy is also engaged in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, a classic example of a program that might proceed for many years with little or nothing of interest to report, but that might someday provide one of the most profound discoveries in human history
That is all well and good. Most HN readers are probably well aware of that project. But if you want to alter policy at a national or international level, don't talk about extraterrestrial intelligence. It stirs the hornets next of faith, politics and cultural conflict. It opens the door to ridicule. Talk about the search for life, the search for a second life-supporting world. And maybe some of that life runs a radio station. Just avoid mentioning ET by name.
Satellites have extremely predictable paths and are very well-tracked by every government with a space program. If you can know a source of noise is there, you can trim the noise out of the signal. Sure, this impacts the fidelity of your signal for the three-dimensional coordinates of image where the noise was present, but "We're getting less science per day" isn't a reason to stop the low-orbit satellite boom.
What am I missing here? Can we not do the signal-subtraction? Is the problem unsolved or unsolvable? And if it's unsolved... Where are the grants to solve it?
2) Space telescopes will never be disposable and will always require some form of service, even with high-reliability construction.
3) low Earth orbit is a limited resource and should be managed as a worldwide Commons. Allowing private corporations to occupy space is another way to privatize profit and push losses onto the public purse. Do you think any of these private companies will clean up the orbital messes they create, or will they act like they have to date?
4) Satellite Internet solves the billionaire's problem of extracting more money from users. Terrestrial methods for Internet access are good enough in all but the most remote communities. The main problem with terrestrial Internet is funding buildout Via private companies in a natural monopoly environment.
I get that this still sucks for any individual with a Telescope though.
And none of that takes into account that many of these telescopes are used specifically as experimenter telescopes where a given scientist can use their own equipment to perform unique observations that cannot be easily done with space-based telescopes.
It took over a decade to produce the Webb telescope and get it into space, and still is a massive feat of engineering not easily reproduced. We're not nearly to a point where we can just write off ground-based observatories in place of space-based ones.
See: Hubble, JWST, and more to come
edit: JWST is in a different point from LEO but still counts
I do think starlink can do more to help the situation though. Sure they tweaked some of the satellites to minimise it, but they could do more. Presumably the know the precise location and orientation of each sat. Surely that can be packaged into a data stream that helps unfk the images? Maybe with a sprinkling of that AI musk has going? Astronomers is a pretty small crowd...can't be that hard for someone like musk to throw them a bone that acknowledges that they're getting the short end here
It should be trivial to identify streaks in the stack and just throw out those images. I'd be surprised if they're not already doing that for the older satellites up there, and things like planes flying across the shot.
>they could do more. Presumably the know the precise location and orientation of each sat. Surely that can be packaged into a data stream
SpaceX already does that.I’m in the astronomy community and I can’t quite figure it out. If you could expand on what you’re thinking and some of the science behind it, that’d be great.
Could be used for whole sky surveys, transient detections, wide angle monitoring, and high res imaging (granted this last one might require more operational finesse than a 5 dollar webcam c ould give you since you'd need fractional wavelength accuracy (right?). A radio antenna pointing outwards would in all honesty probably be better.
But 42.000 x X mega pixels in orbit pointing outwards at least will give you some nice big piles of data to play woth - and the downlink is baned in
How hard is it to run km of wire from the nearest town?
To me, these were built for the sole purpose of surveillance, and internet is an afterthought.
Edit: yes yes it's expensive, but the easiest solution the world came up with was for some guy to invest billions in a satellite program?
Very hard, especially when the towns are much more dispersed than a km apart.
In places like that it's satellite or nothing.
This is why most cables are laid alongside train tracks, not unlike telegram wires of years past. You negotiate with a handful of entities and can get permission relatively easily.
Of course, this presumes there's tracks, which is less and less likely as they keep getting ripped out.
If there's anything modern infrastructure build needs, it's more right-of-way access where you can provision dark fibre without getting mired in the legal issues.
If it's not hard, why hasn't it happened already?
[1] Current operations include the obviously profitable "send monthly marketing materials via mail, email, and live salespersons to homes who canceled your services the day they had an alternative," among other idiotic practices.
You have to dig a trench or span the wire. Either way you need to clear it with numerous property owners over a vast distance, get approval from dozens of authorities along the way, coordinate work crews, and then do maintenance on the whole thing for decades.
And then you discover that the wire used 50 years ago contained lead and we don't like that anymore, so now you have to pay for massive lawsuits (look up AT&T & Verizon) and rip up all that wire. More coordinating work crews and property owners!
And then they invent a new kind of wire and you have to do it all again.
Launching 1000's of satellites isn't easy but I can see wanting to do that rather than wire up the whole planet.
For me, the biggest hang up has just been that I’m required by the state to get it inspected before I put in the conduit, and that ramps up the complexity of coordinating things quite a bit, because I’d rather not leave it open too long. If they have to deal with a bunch of bureaucratic coordination, then I could see the actual labor becoming a relatively tiny part of the difficulty/cost.
EDIT: Say there's some way to put in fiber at $10k per km. Even then, ten million users at 1km per user makes $100 billion.
We're massively more connected than ever before.
Homeless people in the third world have phones now. They should be able to get on the internet too.
The question is: how fast an Internet connection do we need? Do we really need to swipe 4k videos on social network, or to download 50G of docker containers for every build? I don't think so.
Where do you want to draw the line? The wheel, fire, hand tools, struggling to survive in the middle ages, slow internet, fast internet?
I say there is no line.
I say there is one: survival. Not only of our species, but of the others, too. We're failing at that, and the vast majority of the technology that got developed in the last decades is making things worse.
In fact, newer tech tends to be cleaner. We use less land than we would’ve using 1800’s farming techniques, for instance. Nuclear is cleaner than coal.
Also, everybody having more money is a huge help for the environment. Compare the size of the green movements between say, Sweden and the DRC.
Yes, more money = more consumption, but it also means we can do innovative things in a better way.
In this particular case, surely extra-planetary infrastructure is better than millions of miles of ditches with lead cables in them.
Either way, our current state of development isn’t sustainable. It has to be millions of times smaller, or an unknown amount larger. I vote for more tech.
> In fact, newer tech tends to be cleaner.
Newer tech is cleaner if you ignore rebound effect. It's absolutely certain that in history, new tech has always resulted in more energy use, which is the exact opposite of "cleaner".
> Also, everybody having more money is a huge help for the environment. Compare the size of the green movements between say, Sweden and the DRC.
Everybody having more money means that they can consume more. Do you know who goes on holiday by plane? Those who have more money. It's absolutely clear that those who have more money pollute more, even if they feel good because they drive a Tesla (which is all but environmentally-friendly).
> Yes, more money = more consumption, but it also means we can do innovative things in a better way.
Okay, it is "better" by many metrics. But certainly not by the environmental one. We are talking about the environmental impact here, right? Starlink is technically impressive, but it doesn't mean we should do it. It's just part of the problem, and we don't need it.
> In this particular case, surely extra-planetary infrastructure is better than millions of miles of ditches with lead cables in them.
Surely? It's all but sure. You don't even say precisely what you are talking about: do you account for the cables that are already out there and work perfectly fine? Or do you just consider the cost of bringing fiber to your tent in the middle of the desert? Maybe Starlink is better for that, but we don't need it. In fact we just can't afford it, at this point.
> Either way, our current state of development isn’t sustainable. It has to be millions of times smaller, or an unknown amount larger. I vote for more tech.
This is preposterous. With our current understanding of physics, more tech will certainly not help. We would need a breakthrough that is akin to wishing for a miracle. You may as well wait for Jesus to come back.
But there is more: our society depends on fossil fuels. But not only there is no serious way to replace them entirely (meaning that we cannot save the climate/biodiversity without fundamentally changing society), but they are limited and will become a problem in the next few decades (meaning that society will fundamentally change, whether we want it or not).
You can wait for a miracle, or face the truth: we need to prepare for a world with (much) less energy. And in that world, there is no place for fiber in your tent in the desert.
In a certain electronic sense, yes, but emotionally and socially, we are not more connected than ever before. So like I said, this utopian promise of the Internet connecting and liberating and educating us has not happened. In fact, it's the opposite that has happened.
The capitalism I'm fine with, though we need the New Deal version to come back. But universal isolation and depression, or feeling like we live in a factory farm, no.
Until we start making them pay for the environmental impact, that is.
> A single 747 burns more fuel in a year than all the Starlink launches in the past five years.
is not an accurate summary of the environmental impact of rocket launches.
Also, rocket launches are incredibly disruptive to the local ecosystems of the launch sites.
So what is the accurate summary of the environmental impact of rocket launches? 10 times more than B747? 100 times? How would it look compared to aviation?
> rocket launches are incredibly disruptive to the local ecosystems of the launch sites.
Not according to FAA when they issued license for SpaceX's launches at KSC - [0]
[0] - https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/space/environmental/...
Here's a couple of articles.
https://research.noaa.gov/2022/06/21/projected-increase-in-s...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/09/science/rocket-pollution-...
What's more, and this is touched some in the articles, deorbiting satellites so routinely is dumping toxic metals and plastics into the upper atmosphere at increasing rates. We're literally turning the atmosphere into a burn skyfill.
> Not according to FAA when they issued license for SpaceX's launches at KSC
The FAA is not an environmental or even scientific agency. Additionally, the FAA has revealed itself to be a captured regulator in several instances. There's no question that it is susceptible to political and monetary pressures.
Well the goal of SpaceX is to launch as many rockets as technically possible. Even if SpaceX could only reach the same impact as the rest of the aviation sector, that would be infinitely too much. The aviation sector is already a problem.
Consider South Africa, where the largest threat to installation deployment is inability to police the entire deployment coupled with massive wealth inequality... People just dig the cables out of the ground for the copper. Cellular radio has ameliorated the issue some (harder to steal the repeater antenna out of the back yard of a shotgun-owning resident), but Internet can still be a challenge.
Growth! Growth no matter the cost! Why would anyone question the need for always faster internet connections everywhere? /s
It used to be possible to not have high-speed internet, and now high-speed Internet is available everywhere in the world that has an amenable government.
Right now, it's possible to be in a location where it's impossible to call for help. In a few years, when LTE-in-space is available and the 911 mandate applies to it, anyone with a charged phone will be able to get contact.
SpaceX has been working to mitigate how its satellites affect astronomy - see https://api.starlink.com/public-files/BrightnessMitigationBe... and https://new.nsf.gov/news/statement-nsf-astronomy-coordinatio... .
But fundamentally, to limit space to astronomy will be to limit the benefits it can give all mankind. a
Imagine a radio telescope as a satellite constellation, with an aperture the diameter of the orbit if you can synchronize the incoming signal with the right math...