It's very different. Pre-bankruptcy FTX would have owed crypto, so increases in crypto prices (other than FTX's own bespoke "token") would not have helped. Post-bankruptcy, FTX owes cash based on historical (lower) crypto prices. So no, SBF is not quite right.

Whether SBF was right or not does not exempt him from the fraud that was commited

They lost a ton of their customers' crypto. They're paying people back in cash at prices that are now 1/3 or less of the value of the crypto that customers deposited with them.