Can turning office towers into apartments save downtowns?
newyorker.com
newyorker.com
From the ~70's until the early 2010's Kansas City's downtown was in a similar "doom loop" of crime, undevelopment, decaying historic buildings, etc... In that city 75% of the metro lives in suburbs, drives in to downtown for work and promptly leaves. Until about 2012 or so. Urban redevelopment kicked in, adding (free!) transit, boosting retail, arts district events, a new stadium, and crucially - *massive office to housing conversion projects*.
There are tons of success stories like the historic Fidelity Tower at 909 Walnut (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/909_Walnut), a huge 35-story tower that sat vacant (creepy) for the better part of a decade and is now home to 159 units. Ditto with the Power & Light Building (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City_Power_and_Light_Bu...) (36 stories) - largely vacant for the better part of 20 years and now home to nearly 300 units. I could go on, every block has similar projects of 100+ year old buildings of nontrivial sizes that are now super unique apartments. I myself lived in the 30-story Commerce Tower (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commerce_Tower) for a while and it was incredibly cheap to do so (~$1100/month for 750sqft 1 bed on the 14th floor), I had a 10 minute commute by foot to my office, it was awesome. Even the more squat, broad midsize banking buildings have had major success with residential conversions.
These kinds of conversions have been proven out when there is willpower to do so at the city level - people will move in and prices typically get competitive fast if done at scale. I've lived in SF for 4 years now and I'm convinced its a policy problem not an economic problem.
That's not the doom loop in the OP, which results from office space demand decreasing due to so many working remotely:
Urban theorists describe a phenomenon called the “doom loop”: once workers stop filling up downtown offices, the stores and restaurants that serve them close, which in turn makes the area even emptier. And who wants to work somewhere with no services?
> every block has similar projects of 100+ year old buildings of nontrivial sizes that are now super unique apartments
Per the OP (and I've read elsewhere), older buildings are easier to convert because their floors are smaller, which makes it much easier to give a windows to every apartment (a law in many/most/all places).
Did it? Not in NYC. Crime is very low; it's arguably one of the safest places to be in the country.
IE: Soft on crime policies in large cities.
I seriously doubt a lot of these larger cities that are in the "doom loop" will have the same results with the current differences between 20-30 years ago and today with simply turning buildings into apartments.
Just look at New York where businesses are closing all over because of rampant theft. They aren't closing because people aren't there. They care closing because they can't afford to have half their wares walk out the door because New York is refusing to charge criminals because of "justice".
The world we live in is vastly different than it was and the doom loops aren't just because of remote workers.
Interesting point on older buildings being easier. I would have thought quite the opposite. Commerce Tower was one of the "newest" buildings converted and it was built in 1965. Although, I suspect older buildings are still an untapped resource in many cities depending on what we mean by "older".
Think of an old brick building with several stories and a window per floor vs a new steel + concrete building with windows spanning multiple floors.
The "older" builder like the converted one in the parent post has small windows, allowing easy subdivisions. Newer buildings have windows spanning multiple floors and need to be retrofitted and on a skyscraper that comes at a huge cost.
The bigger ticket item is the plumbing and ventilation, and to some extent the electrical. Ventilation is needed around the cooking area and washrooms, adding that to a building not purposed for this is challenging (where does the "contaminated" air go out?).
It's often cheaper to bomb down the building and start over than doing a conversion on a new highrise. You'll see this often where they gut the entire structure and floors, keep a few walls/supporting structure, and build new.
Nobody wants to work there, yet lots of people work there since they need money. And it's the employer who chooses the location. Of course top talent does not need to work in a crappy company, but that's the theory. Also empty space = less trafic. And you can get food delivered. If you can afford it.
People are foreced to work in crappy open plan offices all the time.
[0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Ka...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_China_by_pop...
There are still a lot of big cities and huge city centres but the Chinese meaning of city often includes the metropolitan area plus rural hinterland.
This is unlike the office towers mentioned in the article, which don’t really lend themselves naturally to being apartments.
It's changing though I'm seeing 40 story (luxury) apartment complexes go up all over Dutch cities.
In particular, I'm surprised and impressed they made transit free- that's something I experienced in Estonia and thought was an amazing idea considering the cost of policing turnstiles and fare collection itself plus the benefits of people moving around a city via mass transit over individual vehicular traffic.
[1]https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/most-dangerous...
Free would also mean it's a place to just hang out. Homeless? Sleep on the free train, why not? It's free! Oh, they wake me up at the end of the line? So what, exit and re-enter. It's free and at least not too hot or too cold and I'm not getting rained on. Of course the homeless should be cared for, but if they end up in the train system even less people are going to use it.
Also, it's looked at as an expense for the city so there is always a push to cut it's budget or not raise it enough to do what's needed to make it good. It doesn't help that the previous two points make the non transit using tax base see it as a waste of their taxes.
I'm totally for transit. Hate driving a car. Love taking good transit in Paris, London, Berlin, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, etc... So if free works great! But, if free ends up making things worse for transit that would be bad.
I feel like Japan did a good job by privatizing their train system and giving the companies incentives to make the train system great by having them build and run adjacent businesses (offices, retail space, apartments, stores). The more people ride their trains the better these other interests do and visa-versa. Bad trains in this system = people move to a better line run buy a better company. They may not directly think that but they do hear that station X is the new up and coming place with all the cool stuff nearby and much of that is from train company investment so their appears to be a positive feedback loop.
They also took a ton of time painting the trains in city colors or with city designs, keeping them incredibly clean, doing things like putting live music at every stop on certain days etc... It became really fashionable really fast to ride the thing. They also policed it like mad on the weekends.
Buses on the other hand, are a different story and carry the same stigma. Though I'm still really proud of KC for making that free as well.
One clear element of the Japanese system is that stations are hugely overmanned, and staff are still paid pretty good money. That means facilities are spotless, and drifters or nuisance riders are removed promptly, making the system more appealing. This is very hard to implement in the West, where the sacred fear of unionization pushes for constant cuts, both in the number of humans involved in any task and in their remuneration levels.
That’s the objective reality, in most of the USA.
The only way they’ll attract people that aren’t forced to use it, for financial reasons, is to remove the piss and puke from the floor, the stains of the same composition from the seats (although rock hard plastic is getting popular to compensate), and prevent, not remove, the guy with obvious drug and mental health issues, and now has his dick out, from boarding.
If you want something to be attractive for the general population, it has to, literally, be attractive, or at least not repulsive. Otherwise, the shorter commutes and clean interior that personal transport gives is the obvious choice, as it currently, measurably, is.
But, that can’t happen, because anything nice will be destroyed/vandalized, because anyone can board. The goal of not discriminating against anything or anyone is a choice that society has made (probably the correct one) that makes public transport literal shit.
I don’t miss the few times I used it, then noped back into my car.
A lot of public transit where I live (Mumbai) is subsidized, which means its not profitable to run the way it is run.
That was a very popular decision at the time (help mobility of the poor), but it ends up with massive underdevelopment as the needs expand. There’s no money for private companies to invest in the infra and it waits on election cycles to push investment.
I feel that if it was actually profitable to build new trains / metros / etc it would have happened much quicker.
I definitely wouldn't say KC has made many inroads on crime despite the massive boom it's had in the inner city core, which did increase foot traffic and makes people at least feel safer.
I think, from my understanding, the greatest challenge is in turning modern office blocks into housing. They are usually really big (10,000 -40,000 sqft) floor plates so there's very little natural light to go around and the shape of the flats needed to get window access would be really impractical. Meanwhile the slab to slab heights, floor loadings and locations mean they're not good for industrial or any other use beyond offices.
I know in canary wharf for example they are turning some into children's nurseries and schools which feels "interesting" I'm absolutely certain if they could cost effectively be converted for much much more lucrative apartments they would be.
So even if you turn into apartments the areas close to windows the rest of the space is still taxed even if empty.
Thus, in areas like Manhattan it's virtually impossible to convert those buildings or you need to literally cut off the center of these buildings.
Surely this could not have been possible without some civic backing (the soil contamination in the Bottoms was simply awful and required extensive EPA cleanup and then some), but as you note, policy plus cheap prices appears to be turning it around.
Kansas City's Power & Light district, which you mention, was built by the Cordish Companies, which cut and paste in Louisville and Baltimore, among others.
https://www.cordish.com/businesses/entertainment-districts
Certainly there are benefits of revitalizing urban spaces but the fact that it is entirely engineered, has little room for local entrepreneurs, and most financial benefits flow to a small cadre of real estate giants, is also somewhat concerning.
There are probably more opportunities after the initial redevelopment for smaller scale additions.
Now, for KC specifically, the Power & Light District is a tad different because several completely new and large apartment towers (One Light & Two Light) were built. I'd argue, still good for the area and its residents/business owners, but less viable in cities with less space.
Tldr; idk, necessary evil?
One issue is theres longstanding zoning laws on conversions that limit what can be converted based on year of construction. The year doesn't automatically move forward annually so a new law has to be passed to adjust it otherwise it remains stuck at 1965 or something like that.
KC is an underrated city, and a surprising tech area. Getting Google Fiber first definitely helped. It is commonly called Silicon Prairie.
It's possible some cities handled it better than others, but still worth pointing out.
Architecture and city planning takes time to catch up to this new society.
70m2 for anyone wondering
The DC area is doing a pretty good job with conversions. A lot of these midrise buildings are a good fit for this. Although the very broad midrise buildings are a poor fit.
But I wonder if we could challenge the conventional wisdom on conversions of deeper buildings. Could we come up with novel things to do with this deep interior space?
If you can buy the building cheap enough, conventional wisdom can be thrown out the window.
I once toured a building that had been converted from an old warehouse to residential. Huge floorplate. They had built the condo units around the edges, created a hallway, and then the inside was divided up into "storage" spaces. Each condo owned the space directly across the hallway. They were very large, and people had transformed them into offices, arcades, workshops, playrooms, theaters, etc. You could do just about anything you wanted with the space, and because it wasn't "living space" you didn't have to worry so much about noise and the property taxes were lower than they otherwise would have been.
You can't sell it for a price that includes that space as "living space" either. Which goes back to the point - if you can buy the building cheap enough, you can make anything work.
Maybe, but you can't throw out the building codes. A warehouse, certainly, can be retrofit. But office towers? Almost certainly not.
Elevators are not sized for residential; electrical service not sized for residential loads (dishwasher/dryer/microwaves/ovens); HVAC not sized for residential heat loads (same as above); metering requirements means the existing electrical rooms are not large enough (they are never large enough); plumbing and sewer are not sized for residential.
It goes on and on. Even if you got the building for free, you'd still want to run the numbers to see if it's still cheaper to demolish and build again. It's not entirely clear whether it is or is not.
It can be done if you make huge, expansive apartments, which has to be read as "really expensive". There aren't that many really rich people who can drop 5 figures per month for an apartment.
Living in an apartment (assuming adequate noise isolation) is actually great otherwise.
Conventional wisdom is that there won't be too many windows available to throw conventional wisdom out of :-)
It was spectacular.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2023/cit...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office...
Note that things such as arcades may need additional power demands that the area isn't sized for (fire risk). Workshops may need added ventilation and woodsheds would require additional power too. A theater type area could have issues with fire codes and occupancy.
In St Louis, the largest building in the state, which is 1.4M square feet and 44 stories, recently sold for $3.5M. It sat empty for several years despite being offered basically for free. The new owners have not announced plans for it.
It's a pretty pure test of your claim. I guess we'll see what happens.
I just think there is so much space that you can use in a residential setting without natural light. Your movie room. Your bedroom if you feel like not following The Law as to where they're allowed to be. All your 3D printers and other maker activities. If it's space that nobody wants, I'd personally buy it at a discount if it were offered to me.
Commercial building windows in general do not open at all.
When we were looking for a new house we toured one that had a bit of remodeling done. What was done was the back patio was enclosed to turn it into a room. The detail was that there was an existing bedroom that had a window onto the patio.
The solution, which I have to assume passed code, was simply to retain the bedroom window, even though it did not lead to the outdoors. So this house had an interior window.
Yes, here's an article with great visualizations on how developers are coring out the center of repurposed office buildings in order to create columns of natural light (and how, in certain jurisdictions, this lost square footage can then be reclaimed via new construction stacked on top of the building): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office...
What if every other floor were removed, so all the apartments had loft ceilings? Then light could penetrate from the upper windows deeper into the core of the building. You could even have rooms (like bathrooms or home offices) with lower ceilings and skylights.
Oh well.
If you swapped the orientation of the removed rectangle on each floor, it would look rather like a Jenga tower with the middle block pushed out on each level.
In any case, the central problem (but maybe required step) of all these kinds of solutions is going to be losing 50% or so of the potential floorspace.
So it may be possible to convert offices into apartments, but it's very expensive and you end up losing a bunch of floor space.
[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNkLcD3PKyk [2]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76IHpt6q9ME
And you’d mainly be missing the yards.
Most of these office buildings they’re talking about should just be knocked down and new purpose-built multi-use buildings built in their place.
Loft apartments were originally created from business spaces. In the beginning, they were low cost because of some undesirable properties but have slowly become an extremely in-demand style (huge windows and tons of light being major selling points). Why was it possible to convert industrial space into living space 50 years ago but today it is not possible?
Cheap lofts were peak re-urbanization, but now they are some of the most in demand housing because of the large space and natural lighting.
Office cubicle farms around a services core are made up of small volumes and poor access.
Alternatively sacrificing the central core of the buildings to act as light tunnel might work. Or give the deeper units over to utilities, communal areas, etc
A good architect could transform these buildings into pleasant and useful spaces. It just requires a willingness to try. Check out the youtube channel like @nevertoosmall or @kirstendirksen - I'm sure there are many others that explore topics like this.
Additionally, unless everyone is going to be sharing communal showers/toilets/kitchens, none of the existing utilities are run to where they would be needed for multiple residential units. Having your own bathroom and kitchen is essentially a requirement for non-marginal US housing.
Keep in mind, commercial office space construction is already more expensive (by almost an order of magnitude per sq ft) than residential, and high rise construction is more expensive than normal commercial construction.
So unless there are massive defaults and write downs/some kind of ‘great depression’ type situation, it would be doing a lot of expensive work to convert an already more expensive building to be competing in a space where everyone else did things cheaper from the beginning. Not a great formula for economic viability.
Not impossible, but the level of economic dislocation necessary to have it make sense is mind boggling.
Yout get a self-contained flat, but kitchens etc. will be tiny, and then on top there are shared spaces like co-working facilities, lounges, cinemas, gyms, and staff arranging social events etc.
I'd imagine former office buildings could work well for many of the amenities for projects like that.
[1] https://www.culturewhisper.com/r/lifestyle/coliving_london/1...
The problem is that the current owners of these buildings, as well as their creditors, made plans based on these buildings being expensive urban space. The same is true of city governments, which often have budgets dependent on city center commercial space paying a lot of property taxes. It will take years, and likely lawsuits and ownership changes, for people to accept that prices for these buildings are unlikely to recover.
I feel like this whole effort is not a technical problem but a cultural and financial issue. I don’t think the problem is whether it can be done, but whether the tax structure is in place to encourage it.
It's actually at end the of the day a legal problem. Building codes and fire regulations are very strict on what you can and cannot do, and most 'good' ideas people come up with to solve these problems end up being against the building codes. Without changing the building codes it doesn't matter how clever your technical solution is.
In the US windows are also a required means of egress from a bedroom in case of fire. Technically the requirement is two means of egress of any type, but in effect this means the door and the window, where someone can be rescued by a fire truck, escape onto a different path, etc.
1. He picks his buildings carefully. His projects are "market rate", so he has to work out the conversion cost, inventory yield, and rental rates to find good candidates.
2. He includes rooms without windows and labels them as storage, work-from-home offices, or something else that does not need a window to be legal. But (wink-wink) he fully expects that these will be counted as bedrooms by potential renters.
Basketball courts, tennis courts, rock climbing walls, racket ball courts, workout rooms for 20-30 person adult classes with enough room for equipment like stationary bikes, and so on. Also shops, lots of small specialty shops like you’d find in a mixed use city with cheap real estate.
Plenty of opportunity to build third places into the inner column, outfitted with artificial skylights and ample plants to simulate outdoors.
A friend of mine had an opportunity to build the house for himself and his family. He architected the house as - mostly - several groups of 3 spaces in each.
One is the living space. It's a cabinet, or a bedroom, or a living room with a sofa. It ought to have windows, furniture, some space to walk in between. Could be several "rooms", even with doors.
Another is the bathroom space. Shower, toilet, bathtub, sink with mirror. Doesn't really need to have windows.
And the third, most interesting, is the storage space. Shelves. Places on the floor to put bulky items, like a big vacuum cleaner. Boxes - conveniently sized, maybe labeled. Places to hang clothes. Space to walk inside, so putting an item or finding and taking one is easy. This space doesn't need to have windows.
The storage space is rather big, because you're supposed to keep all the stuff which clutters the living space there. If the storage is overflowing, well, you really have a problems with too many things, but if not - it's very convenient to use as a buffer for something which becomes unused and inconvenient.
Maybe we can structure those deeper buildings in a similar manner, so that living spaces would have windows, and miscellaneous spaces would not and would use that "depth" for non-living purposes.
Your bathrooms and storage spaces in apartments have windows?
Novel means changing the national fire code, which was written the way it was for a reason.
Skyscraper windows aren’t usable for egress. This is a solved problem.
See https://www.slowboring.com/p/legalize-housing-not-tent-encam...
The bigger problem IMO is retrofitting a bunch of buildings that have been built with plumbing in only very select areas to have plumbing ubiquitously.
I’ve lived for a while in a former factory downtown in a city. Every single floor had a completely different layout. Bathrooms were not aligned above one another, room numbers varied widely, some rooms had a better view than others (read: wall in front of a window). But, it worked! The location was great, it was a perfectly fine apartment overall.
I’m unsure what convention needs to be challenged. Fitting rooms on a weird floor plan is totally doable.
R R R R R R R
R R O O O O O
R R O O O O O
R R O O O O O
R R R R R R R
C = communal space/corridors/elevators.
E = empty
R R R R R R R R
R C C C C C C R
R C E E E E C R
R C C C C C C R
R R R R R R R R
There are probably safety reasons why every room must have natural light. How hard is it to make a sideways light tube?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/29/business/ucsb-munger-hall/ind...
I know there is an HN thread.
Yes, the wealthy can have apartments with windows around the outer parameter and the poor can live in the center with no natural sunlight.
Imagine having your bedrooms in the front facing parts of a building for natural light and your office and workshops in the unlit parts. I _need_ a few garage worth of useless space for storage and work area with ventilation. Something that these buildings excel at providing.
Source: I have a friend that ran industrial plumber crews in NYC for 40 years.
We don't like to talk about pee and poop, but they are a really important consideration, in almost any human venture.
I wonder if you can have septic storage for excess flow, that then releases overnight when people aren't using it. Simply time shift the maximal flow periods and maximize the flow utilization of the existing stuff.
Maybe you can use pumps to force more liquid through the pipes faster.
Or you simply put in 80 instead of 150, and find other uses for the space.
And, you know, incentivize minimal use of water.
https://news.ucsb.edu/2021/020455/munger-hall-qa
https://www.architecturalrecord.com/articles/15378-exclusive...
Needless to say, conventionally minded experts of all stripes vociferously objected to it, including architects:
https://www.architectmagazine.com/design/buildings/the-munge...
...But I wonder if maybe cities should conduct small-scale tests of Munger's ideas to find out if they help put all that abandoned office space to good use.
> Big cities like New York have two real estate problems. Housing is scarce and office buildings are empty (or at least under-utilized.) So there would seem to be an obvious solution: turn the offices into homes. And indeed there has been a lot of talk lately about "office-to-resi" conversions. But it's very hard, for a wide variety of reasons. Zoning, financing, and then, of course, the operational aspects of the construction all need to be in place. So what does it take? On this episode, we speak with Joey Chilelli, managing director at the Vanbarton Group, a firm that's been involved with these projects for a decade and long before the pandemic upended both real estate markets. We discuss the challenges involved in actually pulling off these complex projects.
* https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/what-it-really-takes-to-conve...
Admittedly, it's Brooklyn, not Manhattan, and the adjacent blocks are residential.
Here's some information about the project: Cloud 9 Sky Flats: https://www.homes.com/building/cloud-9-at-sky-flats-minneton...
A recent article about one of the condos going up for sale: https://www.startribune.com/corporate-office-turned-condo-in...
While the looks can be argued, the mixed-use seems like an interesting idea. Not aware of too many other such buildings here, so will be interesting to see how it fares.
[1]: https://www.archdaily.com/1016072/vertikal-nydalen-snohetta
The environment needed for maximizing work is often at odds with the environment for maximizing leisure.
In city where I live some rich dude contributed to our city governor’s campaign or something. Now governor has to “return the favor” by relocating thousands of government employees from downtown area which is close to a lot of people’s homes to outskirts of the city where nobody lives and where that rich dude owns office space for rent.
https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article281...
Wasting hours in traffic every day/week won’t give you any time for leisure.
Or single family homes with a large yard and a white picket fence 1+ hour outside of the city...
The huge issue in conversions is the amount of plumbing needed (and associated cost).
It's not uncommon that an entire office floor might only have 1 restroom area & 1 mini-kitchen.
But that same floor, configured as apartments, might have 10+ apartments ... which means 10x the plumbing for bathrooms and kitchens that didn't exist before.
And having feeder plumbing that can support that 10x (or more) increase in water/waste volume.
They installed eight multi-stall bathrooms where once there was a single room in the corner with one toilet through the revolutionary act of running PEX and digging a trench in the slab for sewage.
It is trivial to do the same in a high-rise. If anything it will be easier because instead of digging a trench you can punch holes in the floor and route plumbing and ventilation through the plenum (or whatever is up there).
Water supply and power isn't a problem because here's a secret: commercial spaces almost always use more power than residential, especially in the extremely esoteric and rare cases where workers have computers and copiers. Hell all of these buildings have phat 3-phase service. A dude watching Netflix and using his microwave in a space that once housed a dozen workers, half of which had space heaters under their desks because the HVAC was set to 70 in the summer will be a break for the transformer.
I once had a clogged drain in my apartment. When it was fixed, I was politely asked not to run the water until they could inspect the ceiling in the unit below. They wanted to make sure that it wasn't going to leak on my neighbor below.
And, because of zoning reforms, no new building would be allowed to overwhelm a Manhattan street the way the hulking towers of the postwar period did. A developer who constructed a tower the same height as 55 Broad would likely have to sacrifice twenty per cent of the rentable space.
The target demographic doesn't care about windowlessness:
New York remains a place where many ambitious young people go to start their careers, if not to stay, and this demographic is ideal for the hotel-style conversions for which office towers are most suitable. Moreover, Berman said, “young people are social—they don’t want to sit in the middle of a forest on a Zoom call.”
Renters are now used to the layouts of chain hotels, where there’s one window by the bed, so Berman’s bathrooms and kitchens didn’t need to be sunny, and the kitchens could have a minimal footprint. “Our demographic doesn’t cook,” he said. He referred to the other rooms without windows as “home offices.”
Avinash Malhotra, an architect who has done several conversions with Berman, noted that a single office tower can be carved up into hundreds of little units, as in a hotel. “He is not making housing for the homeless,” Malhotra said. “But I often joke among my employees that what we do is slums for the rich.”
Together, this will help create walkable, vibrant downtown with no need for a car to commute to work. The only thing preventing this is zoning, which currently bans most new residential.
As a side benefit, the new housing will relieve price pressure on existing, overpriced older housing.
WFH is great for some jobs, but many jobs are better in person, and relatively few people have the luxury of an at-home office, especially those within urban areas. Perhaps you're happy with your employer pushing office costs onto you, but I prefer an employer that provides me with an office that I can walk/bike to instead.
I work in a large multi-site company so I'm either at home on zoom for meetings or in the office on zoom for meetings hearing 60 other people also have zoom meetings. There's vanishingly small benefits for coming to the office for me because the people I could conceivably benefit from in person collaboration with are hours away so no matter what my day lives on video calls and Teams chats.
> WFH is great for some jobs, but many jobs are better in person,
I'm increasingly convinced this is simply not true for most jobs and it's being pushed by a) middle management who like in office because they can wander by and check in on everyone easier or b) the real estate arms of companies trying to justify extremely expensive leases they can't get out of. Personally I think b is the ultimate reason because it looks bad to have this cost sitting around with no 'justification'.
Anecdotally our leadership was effusive with praise about how productive we were during the 2 years+ of complete work from home and yet no matter how much feedback they get that people aren't happy with RTO we've been slowly ratcheting up the number of days required in and increasing the level of tracking of adherence to this new policy no one but the C-Suite seem to want.
If it's not a place where people make money / strive / want to make something of themselves, it's either a retirement community or a vacation town: just in sustaining mode.
The residential helps businesses stay open 7 days a week, instead of closing for the weekend when no one is at work.
What I'm missing: if business scales down, thus population and culture scale down (unless populated by people independent of these things). This means higher vacancies of existing residential, so how much new residential is needed?
I guess what I'm ultimately wondering: what's the "critical mass" of a city? At what point, does the commerce/social engine get small enough that it's no longer sustainable? We already saw many US cities were "weekday-only" cities, devoid of anything interesting, before the pandemic.
The only problems are a lack of political will with regard to zoning and codes. A common retort is, "well some apartments won't get access to natural light" or "utilities are in one place".
In many countries where housing security is tight, there are people who live inside apartments without windows.
Secondly, share housing where kitchens and bathrooms were used communely (aka a dorm) used to exist for many working class poor. Again, if the choice is the street versus a share house the choice is obvious.
No one said affordable housing needs to provide natural light, private bathrooms, and kitchens. Until the political will exists to return to what used to be normal for America and in many respects the entire world homelessness will continue.
Sometimes a roof over ones head and a place to sleep is all the homeless want. Price it accordingly.
There is way too much ultra-luxury buildings getting built in NYC. It's simply too profitable and there's little to no incentive to build (or convert) apartments normal people can afford.
Another problem for NYC in particular, a lot of the buildings that exist already would be illegal to build now. I get the desire to avoid streets being in constant shadow from surrounding buildings but large footprint buildings are simply a more efficient use of space once you factor in things like elevators, fire escapes and electrical/mechanical ducting.
The NYC government works at the behest of property developers so this is unlikely to change.
In Canada's major cities, for example, we see such luxury and non-luxury units being bought as stores-of-value by wealthy foreigners trying to avoid risk or capital controls, rather than as something to be actively lived in by them or anyone else. Supply is consumed, without any being relinquished.
Even when the owner might reside in such a unit, it ends up being more like a dedicated hotel room for them. They'll simultaneously own luxury residences in other cities and/or countries, and travel between them. Again, supply is consumed (in multiple markets), without any being relinquished.
The luxury market really isn't like the broader housing market.
I don’t know how this is sustainable given that Manhattan is an island.
The set of laws is different for office buildings and apartments.
- There's a massive economic downturn resulting in job losses, power briefly shifts from the employees to the employers, and the incumbent office-heads indeed insists on RTO.
- But they would soon go out of business competing against new employers that are remote-only and have far lower overhead, killing RTO again.
EDIT
One other scenario that just came to mind is an extreme amount of new building and revitalization in cities. If they build enough units, and enough big, nice units, and spruce up the place a bit, living in a city will become cheaper and more practical.
If I can live in a huge nice condo with decent rent, no homeless people on the sidewalk, and close to the office, I wouldn't mind RTO so much.
As it is, city living only makes sense for those in their 20's or those who are truly dedicated to the city lifestyle.
Step 1: Let all the landlords go bankrupt. The buildings will be repossessed and owned by creditors, but still there.
Step 2: New people buy them for a fraction of even the current price, and redevelop them. Or nobody buys them, and we get an empty lot.
Any other plan is an attempt to transfer wealth from the people to the landlord class to save their skin. Hard pass, let them use their 75 years of ill gotten rents.
If no one truly buys them, you don’t get an empty lot. You get abandoned, dilapidated buildings and all the associated social/environmental problems that comes with that.
But of course, we’d have to be a lot more aggressive about invoking eminent domain for this to be effective. To that end, it would make sense to also establish policies ensuring it’s easy to invoke it fairly and transparently - ie, easily allowing other parties to bid against the city for higher prices in cases where eminent domain is to be used this way (stipulating that those parties also take measures to restore the building, etc).
You let rich interests create a situation where they make more and more money for doing nothing. In this case, sitting on downtown real estate. They use the money to manipulate the system to tilt the economy more and more in their favor. They kill off attempts to introduce rail. They fight against increasing capacity for housing or office space, because when demand goes up and supply stays the same they get higher rent for doing literally nothing but continue to own the same properties. They bribe politicians to force you back into the office downtown for no reason.
This is literally called rent-seeking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent-seeking Landlords have been doing this for thousands of years to the point it is a fundamental economic principle.
Then, when they get in trouble, and they might lose some money, you have to bail them out or they will ruin your cities. They are going to ruin the cities either way. If you bail them out they will take the money and then do none of the things they were supposed to do in exchange. They are only going to do whatever puts the most money in their pocket, and they play a long game.
Here is a counter proposal:
- Tax any vacant building at a rate high enough that any owner will be forced to put the building into use or sell it to someone who will. This applies both to buildings that are 'abandoned' as well as just sitting empty due to lack of tenants.
- Tie property tax rates directly to the rate of supply. Whenever an action is taken that artificially increases property values, increase the rates to offset that increase. If the planning commission kills a new apartment building that would increase the number of beds in part of the city by 1%, increase tax rates by 1% (1% of the current rate). This will penalize existing landlords (and homeowners) for rent-seeking and NIMBY. This can be done at the state level and the funds can be earmarked for low income housing and job programs, or parks.
- Offer tax incentives for things that lower property values but increase quality of life. These would include housing programs, railroads and stations, high density housing, etc. This would help balance out the rent seeking behavior of landlords and de-align their group interests. For example, if I own a large apartment complex and there is a proposal to build another large complex next door to mine, I am opposed to it. More housing will lower my rents. However, if I get a permanent tax cut when the new complex is built, it will not take much of a difference in tax rate for my profits to increase (since the lowering of marginal rents will very small from one building and spread over a wide area, whereas the tax benefit is concentrated in the area where I benefit). Landlords would then be forced to use their influence to try to steer new development to be near their own properties, rather than using their combined influence to kill all development.
If your next suggestion is that all landlords be government run or run as a coop, no freaking thanks to the first and while coops are great I don't think only coops is a good solution. If you want only wealthy homeowners and the rest of the population living in communism style housing, very hard disagree.
Go look up GHI in Greenbelt, Maryland. It's one of the oldest and largest co-ops in the USA. Housing in GHI is a fraction of the cost of the surrounding neighborhood, and the cause is that you cannot rent out GHI units. Only owners can live in their own units, which means speculators and landlords are simply banned from bidding up the costs. As a result, the cost to buy a unit there is a fraction of what it is right next door, maintenance on the units is better, crime is lower, services are better. It's a 100% walk able community that is run democratically. It's really a model for how housing could be built all across the country, but I guess you are the expert, we should keep doing what we do now and just let a couple billionaires complete a monopoly on having a roof, and hope that they only ask for 100% of our income and not more.
They need a place that caters to their culture(including the town or city itself - micro culture) - they need a place to hang out with people of like mind, they need hobbies and places to go, they need restaurants, events, parks, quiet places, loud and busy places, areas to connect with nature, areas to focus on business or meet fellow enthusiasts. It's not a numbers game .... it's human emotions and reality.
we need hospitals and daycares and public pools, arcades, shops, zoos, heritage sites, pop ups, concerts, etc ...
it's more than just walls + plumbing and electrical codes.....
Its just economics. The answers to over coming economic disruption are always the same: be where you are not expected or do that which others cannot.
Cities were traditionally a side-effect of communication hubs, trade collocated with rail/shipping locales, and centralized labor-driven stable factory lines. Communication is now decentralized due to technology changes since the early 90's, trade is now settled with online brokerages/logistics, and factories were either outsourced or moved into more favorable tax districts to maintain competitive posture.
Most modern cities are now running unsustainable theme-park service economies. Note municipal districts are never stripped of jurisdictional tax boundaries, and this still holds true even for areas in economic decline due to mismanagement/arrogance.
Have a wonderfully awesome day, and I thank god it is not my task to try and fix these issues =)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
The idea quickly falls apart once you need a car to get to either social events or to work.
If your work is nearby, that's just chef's kiss, then.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40292219
So we might have to wait until it makes economic sense to demolish and rebuild before life returns to the cities
Yes, there are many desperate enough to flock anywhere if they see a possible accommodation, but how can they survive locally?
After the '80s logistic revolution and then TLC/IT progress finally making offices useless in cities there is no viable economy anymore. The new right density for the economy of scale are single-family homes and small buildings spread enough to have room to change but not too far, intermixed with homes enough to avoid the US suburbs error. We can't have a new deal in dense cities.
P.v. works best for self-consumption only and we heading toward cheap enough batteries to make almost-autonomous homes the norm in a large slice of the inhabited world (30kWh capacity per home at minimum), we can collect and store and clorate enough water to make semi-autonomous homes and various shops. It start to be cheaper than creating large aqueducts. We start to being able to treat sewers enough to been able to have local treatment instead of a sewerage network, we are not there, but near enough. The world change and we have to change accordingly meaning we can't keep up the immense infra we have made for cities while people move around to escape too frequently flooded areas, too hot areas and so on. We need infra for industries, and many industries need a certain size to be viable, but the trend it's clear we need to produce modern way to live less and less dependent on complex services existing on ground networks. We still need roads, personal air mobility and last-mile air mobility is still far despite certain claims https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/uam-full-... but we know where we should go. Smart cities can't work like the old Fordlandia can't. Classic cities already not work anymore, so we do not have other options so far and we need to evolve anyway.
In a city, if I have a gifted child, I almost certainly have several options for what school to send them to, many probably within walking distance. In a sparse suburb, I have one, unless they want an hour-long bus ride.
Same goes for restaurants, and social activities -- and people! (i.e., potential friends)
Cities are drastically more efficient. PV does -not- work best for personal consumption, that's actually the hardest way to go because you're not sharing available resources. Same goes for almost everything else you listed.
What's not awesome are cities defined by gridlock and huge highways, something that is itself addressed by increasing the amount of residential space relative to office space.
I don’t think you know what you’re talking about. I live in about as suburban of a town as you could imagine and there are 2 public elementary schools, a charter school, and a private Christian school within about a 15 minute walk. Within a 5-10 minute drive there are probably 5 more high quality charter schools, a few more private schools and who knows how many more public schools.
Well, before I can choose restaurants from all over the world, some fitness centers, some events, always and only services to consume and no real personal activity. Traffic congestion, lack of space and so on complete the game. no, thanks.
In social terms my social life here with FAR LESS people around is IMPROVED because being less we are more social, we meet much more with different people instead of being in bubble if friends, very isolated from all others humans around. Surely mean cultural level is far lower, but due to the general cultural degradation these days to find interesting people for interesting dialogues internet is the sole means, we are too rarefied to meet IRL casually.
Schools? Here every school have large green space and plenty of outdoor activities, yes not at walking distance but who care? Primary schools are normally in 30km radius on good roads, high schools are more rare, but not that far away and if young start to going out of home to study is a good thing for them. Universities became a bit more costly since you must be around them but again it's not that special.
Cities IMO are SOLD to be efficient, and they are definitively not. Starting from the office model where you have a place to live, almost unused during the day, and a place to work almost only used during the day, and we build such mid/high rise buildings to use them only a bit less than half a day, wasting time for commuting, how efficient.... Oh, sure, to farm humans is efficient, to live farmed inside definitively not.
P.a. actually work ONLY for self-consumption because on scale sharing energy is a nightmare for the grid, we do not have superconductive links, sharing means sharing locally, so have a locally very unstable demand for big power plants, the worst scenario for network stability, they can't keep the frequency with significant p.v. on grid. Instead IF we focus on self-consumption p.v. offer options to heat large quantity of water to have them in the night, when needed, to have geothermic heat pumps, heating the ground in summer to balance the heat get in the winter and so on.
BTW cities can't exists without much highways: there anyone eat, and the food came from outside.
So, public face / private face stuff.
Commercial real estate is in a much worse place than they care to say.
2) older buildings are more viable for residential conversions, if subsidized into positive economics
3) permit + incentivize residential construction - you'd be surprised how much of typical US downtowns are made up of parking lots/structures which can easily be scraped for housing.
Lastly as people do fill into downtowns, that will naturally convert into the ecosystem that serves those people - for all but capital intensive projects which will need to be spearheaded by municipalities and developers alike.
And if you can live closer to work, there's a better chance you'll want to show up in person instead of telecommute.
And failing this: - displaced urban wildlife - tear it down and make space for plants
The Austin Plaza Saltillo project is a great example. Shops at the bottom make it useful for the whole community. Parking is in garages underneath which promotes walk ability. When you see someone going to their place you don’t know if they are on food stamps or are a tech millionaire. There’s less stigma and more respect for all neighbors.
The cities I live near seem to have no problem attracting young singles and couples. Young urbanites I've worked with have all moved out when (a) they have kids and realize how bad the schools are, (b) when one of them gets mugged, (c) they get married to a non-urbanite, (d) they want local governance that is at least slightly sane.
The idea to turn office towers into apartments tries to address the second issue without explicitly trying to solve the first (which is make downtown more desirable to live in).
I have not really thought that through; at first blush it seems obvious that one would want to save these downtowns. But also some of the best innovations arise out of the creation that follows destruction.
I’m open to clarifying opinions on the matter
And then of course there are knock-on effects to placing people like that (typically young professionals and artists) together like that to rub shoulders, talk about ideas, start businesses etc...
Sounds like https://vxtwitter.com/GoodGuyGuaranty/status/175753305627604...
Evolve? Yes.
If you turn office towers into apartments, where are people gonna work?
May work in some cities that benefit of high tourism or are high status enough (Manhattan, city of London) that you'll always fill them, but it just doesn't scale beyond them.
Ain't nobody dreaming about living in downtown Columbus or Cleveland or Detroit. You live there if you work there.