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Comment by kelthuzad | Hacker News Reader

I wouldn't classify murdering 30k+ civilians (15k+ children), dropping bombs on entire families, being caught[0] executing civilians with drones in plain view, having israeli holocaust scholars and survivors describing israel's actions as "textbook-case of genocide"[1][2], the world seeing israel as an illegitimate pariah state, as "winning", but you do you.

[0] "Note that this footage permits no room for "it was a mistake," showing repeated, specifically-targeted strikes on the unarmed and even wounded. The sort of behavior the ICJ explicitly forbid in the genocide ruling against Israel." https://x.com/Snowden/status/1770936325996155290

[1] Gaza 'Textbook Case of GENOCIDE' - Holocaust Scholar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUeEnjULHe0

[2] Holocaust Survivor Tells Me: Israel Is Committing Genocide - w. Stephen Kapos https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4PFmz4MNdg

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I meant winning in the context of military conflict. Obviously not in reputation.

You're still conflating murdering civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure with "winning", but the resistance is quite safe in their tunnels and they are still fighting[0] back. It's also advisable to take Israel's casualty numbers with a huge grain of salt because they are contradictory to what's happening on the ground. Israel has not achieved any of its declared objectives (except for the Genocide)

[0] Palestinian resistance weapons continue to evolve during genocide, with Jon Elmer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OF9OsxkttM0

When your neighbors are trying to ethnically cleanse you, surviving is winning.

Winning is based on war aims. Israel's were the return of captives and removal of Hamas. It is further along in those aims than it was in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks; that's fairly defined as winning. (Taken to the extreme, Nazi Germany was winning WWII in 1940.)

> the world seeing israel as an illegitimate pariah state

Your other claims are true. This one is not.

>> the world seeing israel as an illegitimate pariah state

>Your other claims are true. This one is not.

I should have phrased that more precisely but I was just judging by what Israel's ministry of hasbara itself seems to be most concerned with and fears the most is people questioning israel's legitimacy. Combined with the sentiment that can be seen across social media where even regular folks have started seeing israel as a racist settler colonial project that has no legitimacy. But you're correct, my previous wording was too ambiguous since "the world" is too broad and can refer to too many things.

> the sentiment that can be seen across social media where even regular folks have started labelling israel as a racist settler colonial project that has no legitimacy

A majority of Americans support Israel's war [1]. An overwhelming majority believe Israel has a right to exist [2]. (The exception being 18 to 24-year olds, among whom 31% believe Israel does not.)

Israel has faced practically zero actual diplomatic consequences as a result of its war, with even those voting against it at the UN continuing to e.g. trade with and talk to it [3].

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/majority-in-u-s-say-i...

[2] https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/HHP...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boycotts_of_Israel

>A majority of Americans support Israel; that fraction has actually grown recently [1]

America is a special case and does not represent the regular folks of the world because it's home to the strongest israeli lobby on the planet and their supporters are mostly die-hard evangelicals for whom no evil israel does is too far.

Just listen to Jonathan Greenblatt's admission in the leaked[1] conversation where he verbatim states: “We have a major, major, major generational problem, All the polling I’ve seen: the ADL’s polling, ICC’s polling, independent polling, suggests that this is not a left, right gap folks. The issue of the United States’ support of Israel is not left and right. It is young and old.”

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1bec4z5/...

> America is a special case and does not represent the regular folks of the world

Israel's net favourability is down globally [1]. But there is zero evidence it's losing legitimacy; very few countries flipped sign. Instead, it was countries that didn't like Israel a bit disliking them more. (And again, not to the degree of carrying policy consequences.)

> issue of the United States’ support of Israel is not left and right. It is young and old

Sure. 31% is a lot. But it's also still 31%.

[1] https://time.com/6559293/morning-consult-israel-global-opini...

>Israel's net favourability is down globally [1]. But there is zero evidence it's losing legitimacy; very few countries flipped sign.

>zero evidence it's losing legitimacy

zero? "Colombia nation cuts ties with Israel amid Columbia University protest"[0]

Your judgment on this is rather shortsighted and there is more than enough evidence that israel is losing legitimacy. The people's opinion rarely turns into policy over night, even in democracies.

I've observed the sentiments on this particular issue for more than a decade and I can tell you that I've never seen such insane amount of regular folks, from diverse backgrounds and political affiliations, who fearlessly speak truth about israel in a manner that would make Menachem Begin tremble in his grave. I'm observing Israeli accounts and hasbara efforts and it's evident, from the content they produce, that they fear losing legitimacy and are acting accordingly e.g. investing a lot of money into gerrymandering/astroturfing[1]

Even dictators in the middle east, who are puppets of the US and Israel, are fearing of losing their own legitimacy because of what their own people perceive[2][3] as corrupt and subservient behavior to the empire. Those dictators are one arab spring away from getting brought to justice by their own people for their complicity in israel's genocide and they know it and they fear that.

[0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2024/05/02/columbi...

[1] https://x.com/5149jamesli/status/1783144486031495389

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/saudi-ara...

[3] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240415-jordans-treachery...

> Colombia nation cuts ties with Israel

Ukraine has cut diplomatic ties with Russia; the Baltic states have gone almost as far [1]. That doesn't mean they deny Russia's legitimacy as a state.

There has been zero change in recognition of Israel since October 7 [2]. (Belize and Bolivia also severed relations, by the way. And Turkey stopped trading. But again, very different from disagreement and denying legitimacy, and why I said practically zero diplomatic consequences, a threshold much lower than loss of legitimacy.)

> more than enough evidence that israel is losing legitimacy

Open to being convinced, but do you have a source?

> I've never seen such insane amount of regular folks, from diverse backgrounds and political affiliations, who fearlessly speak truth about israel

Plenty of batshit crazy stuff seems widespread on the internet.

> they fear losing legitimacy

Sure. They should. America fears China annexing Taiwan; that isn't evidence it's happening.

> dictators in the middle east, who are puppets of the US and Israel, are fearing of losing their own legitimacy

The ones who helped Israel repel Iran's attack?

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-blames-baltic-co...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_I...

>> more than enough evidence that israel is losing legitimacy

>Open to being convinced, but do you have a source?

A state's legitimacy hinges not only on diplomatic relations with other states but also significantly on public perception and global discourse. This is particularly evident in the case of Israel, where many now view it as a racist colonial entity which is a danger to israel's legitimacy. As I've stated before, your judgment on this seems to be extremely shortsighted, you may dismiss the countless of crucial events of the past months but israelis certainly don't, they speak of the existential threat of "delegitimization" of israel and they are fighting it tooth an nail[0]. Why would they so fiercely fight the "delegitimization" of israel if they didn't see it as a real & existential threat?

>> I've never seen such insane amount of regular folks, from diverse backgrounds and political affiliations, who fearlessly speak truth about israel

>Plenty of batshit crazy stuff seems widespread on the internet.

Without "batshit crazy" people israel couldn't even survive, those "batshit crazy" evangelicals have immense influence on policy. Furthermore, your dismissal is a bit flippant, the people I've seen speak out are sensible & reasonable; people from whom I would have never expected to hear harsh truths about the zionist colonial project.

>> they fear losing legitimacy

>Sure. They should. America fears China annexing Taiwan; that isn't evidence it's happening.

I don't think that is an adequate comparison. I'm not interested in writing an essay on how different those conflicts are, I'm pretty sure you know enough about that.

>> dictators in the middle east, who are puppets of the US and Israel, are fearing of losing their own legitimacy

>The ones who helped Israel repel Iran's attack?

Yes, the article[1] I linked above literally mentions that and I really don't see how your point diminishes in any way what I've argued for.

[0] The Diane and Guilford Foundation that grants this fellowship to you has as its stated mission "the prosperity and safety of Israel". Their grant focuses include "confronting the delegitimization of Israel" and to advance "Israel's geopolitical interests" https://x.com/birdelaire/status/1784413355236790382

[1] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240415-jordans-treachery...

Israel is at risk of losing legitimacy. There is no evidence it is losing legitimacy. That’s an important difference.

That's just arguing semantics, many of those dynamics go hand in hand. Anyway we can meet here again in 12 months and have a clearer picture of the consequences of the past months on israel's legitimacy. Thank you for the conversation.

> There has been zero change in recognition of Israel since October 7

It's not about recognition of Israel as a nation, it's about legitimacy of Israeli policies. The phrasing of "illegitimate pariah state" (not my phrasing) was rather unfortunate IMHO.

And I think it's very hard to deny that criticism of Israel's long-term policies of settlement has increasingly come under more and more scrutiny. Even your own links are demonstrating that. This is not new criticism: pretty much the entire world except Israel and the US has been saying for decades that the settlement policy is illegal and the major roadblock to peace.

> it's very hard to deny that criticism of Israel's long-term policies of settlement has increasingly come under more and more scrutiny

Oh absolutely. The legitimacy of Israel’s entire Palestine strategy has essentially crumbled. Its ability to conduct diplomatic relations has been impaired, and it’s got a massive perception problem across an entire generation.

But when someone says Israel is losing legitimacy, they are arguing that its continued existence as a state is under threat. When the Taliban refused to hand over Bin Laden, they lost legitimacy with the United States. That’s what a country losing legitimacy means—it’s no longer treated like a real country. (I don’t necessarily think everyone who says this understands this. But that’s what those words mean.)

And in respect of Israel, that simply isn’t true. In terms of pariah status it isn’t even in the world’s top ten. Its support in America—its security guarantor—is surprisingly stable. It has nukes. This isn’t a view seriously held by anyone with any military or international relations credibility. That said, I see why it has appeal in a sort of karmic justice way. Because it’s not fun to watch e.g. a Sudanese warlord or junta in Myanmar commit war crimes and win.

I think you should be skeptical of the official state claims of war aims. It seems quite apparent that Israel's actions are working towards the goal of ethnic cleansing and land conquest.

With the amount of unexploded munitions they're leaving there, they're supplying the future resistance's rocket and IED systems for the next 75 years. Also creating enough orphans and resentment for another orphan army to replace the current one. Winning?

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