I am not a big gambler. But I wonder if these sort of calculations could be better in forecasting than prediction markets like intrade.com.

Very interesting work on the Eurovision at least! There are so many potential variables. Age, gender, BPM of the song, changes in the performance, political stuff. For example I don't expect any points for Azerbaijan from Germany, because the media reported very critically on the undemocratic regime. But don't know how this will play out in the rest of Europe. Are you American? This song contest and its history must be pretty strange for outsiders.