Also, some countries will have failed to advance in the first semi-final. Would they be even less likely to watch the second semi-final and the final?
If there would be a way to estimate the viewer's distribution for each show, it could improve the accuracy under this model.
Comparing the MCMC calculations and book maker odds are interesting. For example you rank Turkey (which I think is the better song) higher than Azerbaijan, but in the odds it is dramatically different. A return of 3.0 when Turkey comes ahead. Hmhmhm.
Also, this should go without saying, but this is not financial advice, please don't blame me if you lose money betting on the predictions of this model, etc.
Very interesting work on the Eurovision at least! There are so many potential variables. Age, gender, BPM of the song, changes in the performance, political stuff. For example I don't expect any points for Azerbaijan from Germany, because the media reported very critically on the undemocratic regime. But don't know how this will play out in the rest of Europe. Are you American? This song contest and its history must be pretty strange for outsiders.
I am a bit skeptical about how effective politically motivated boycotts can be in Eurovision. The problem is that it's not possible to cast a vote against a country, so the only way a boycott can work is if it convinces a lot of people who were otherwise going to vote to abstain. That said, there has been quite a lot of coverage in at least the Western European media which has been very critical of Azerbaijan, so we'll see. It's also just possible that nobody will like their song - I'm not sure how we'd tell which had happened.