Gene banks aren’t enough to save the world’s food
longnow.org
longnow.org
For example, he has nice videos about chinampas in Mexico https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86gyW0vUmVs , a medieval Indian canal tunnel of a style found throughout Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kplvq0C-cdE , efforts to return a Hawaiian watershed to something like its historical state https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7q8friw1p8 , the Indian Paani Foundation's "water cup" to revitalize drought stricken villages https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXqkSh7P7Lc , and the difficulty of using ancient iron-saturated aquifers for irrigation in western Egypt https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBC5wOLF1hQ
https://uk.bookshop.org/p/books/julia-watson-lo-tek-design-b...
I wonder if the trends reverses as aquifers are done with, and agriculture in places like US's original 13 colonies or middle Russian lands or Prussia or northern France becomes trendy again.
It's also important to think about predictability. Issue with many lands is unpredictable weather. You put your grains in the soil, month later you've got -2C and grains are dead. I feel that global warming will not help here, but rather will make things worse: weather will be less predictable, even if average temperature goes up, local extremums will occur often.
And wheat is a very important staple. We feed a lot of the world!
So while there is some fallow land, this exists everywhere, and I don't think repurposing will help.
The harder thing is the grains, since those typically require so much more work to get from the plant to the plate. I've looked into growing my own wheat before (I already have a large garden and have enough space that I could theoretically grow enough wheat to cover a substantial portion of my annual flour use), but the small scale/DIY options for threshing, sorting, grinding, and sifting are just not quite practical (for the level of effort I'm willing to put in, which I'm quite sure is higher than most home gardeners).
If a small scale solution to harvesting and processing wheat can be made relatively cheap and simple, I'd bet you could get home gardeners to support the continued cultivation of these varieties in the same way that they frequently support heirloom tomatoes etc.
Again, to be very clear, the gardeners themselves are (mostly) not doing the preserving. The plants home gardeners grow are a dead-end genetically (usually not being preserved at all, and even when they are, almost certainly representing mixes of several different varieties), but buy purchasing seeds from the larger scale growers, they are paying to support the continued cultivation of those varieties.
I've harvested 25lbs of wheat berries from a boulevard in my city. I then threshed, winnowed it myself. I still have some of the flour and berries left and use it to make bread.
I did my threshing using a lawn mower on a big tarp. This actually worked fairly well. Were I to do it again I would probably want a more repeatable setup. Ive seen some good strategies on youtube.
The winnowing I did with a leaf blower, and worked pretty well, I think I would use this strategy again, but I suspect if you were going to do it more often it would be very easy to build something that would help mechanically.
I have a friend with a little home flour mill which took a while but was perfect for turning it into flour. If you were to do it fresh when you wanted to make bread these little mills are fantastic.
There's a book I highly recommend reading called Small Scale Grain Raising [1] that has a lot of good tips, and ways to do this kinda stuff.
In this book they recommend using a leaf shredder or wood chipper which would be incredibly effective.
[1] https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/small-scale-grain-raisi...
I just used a box fan for winnowing. I built a 5 gallon bucket thresher to use with a drill. Worked really well.
I'm doing winter wheat this year for bread.
How much did you process? What is the maximum amount you think you would have been willing to process with that method?
I made a round out of plywood to put in the bottom of the bucket, drilled a hole in the center, and put a steel pipe end cap in it. I put a ball bearing in the end cap. Then a threaded rod up through the top resting on the bearing. I cut a round of plywood for the top of the bucket, chamfered to fit snugly. I drilled a hole in the center of that and put a pillow block on it to fit the threaded rod. On the bottom of the rod I put two pieces of flat stock about 1/2 from the bottom and about one inch above that one, just held on with nuts. That's pretty much it. There are lots of YouTube of variations on that design. Runs with a corded drill. Cordless might work for very small batches.
Obviously still worth doing but it'd be interesting to see whether remediation of some kind would be worth while.
Is this on purpose or a technical limitation?
Can we create a new plant that (1) tastes good (2) is not a genetic dead end (3) is easily spread to other farms by squirrels and birds (4) low maintainence, and put an end to this DRM?
I mean it would be kind of nice if there existed a forest full of food that nobody had to maintain.
> they are paying to support the continued cultivation of those varieties
The plants are living beings, if they are allowed to behave like living beings without being crippled, perhaps the varieties will continue to exist naturally without said support.
If you are growing grains and harvesting by hand eat the seeds from shorter plants. Taller plants are easier to handle. And give more straw for animal bedding. Taller grains have been mostly bred out of the seed stock. Machines are more efficient on shorter plants.
Most home gardeners can much more easily support the maintenance of old strains by buying heirloom seeds from breeders.
However, if one has the space, time, skills, and interest to do what you are doing, then by all means go ahead.
All you really need space for is allowing plants to reach full maturity. Some plants, like carrots or radishes, get huge if left to seed. One fruit from most plants will give you more seed than you likely planted. Each seed in a fruit is a unique individual that was fertilized by a different pollen. Even with self fertilization the seeds will not be genetically identical.
Do you actively select and breed the plants you grow, or does the selection happen "by itself" since only plants that are somehow adapted to local condition reach maturity?
Starting with a new plant I will buy a few varieties whose descriptions suit my fancy. Then plant as many seeds as I have space for. Adapting plants is a numbers game. Some won't germinate, some will grow slowly, some will become diseased and some will be eaten by pests. None of those are suited for the local environment. Thin the planting to allow the strongest growers room. It should be obvious which ones to keep. Once you have the plants that started from seed best its time to start selecting for other traits. Traits depend on the plant but for food you should be selecting mostly for taste at first. For example, I am crossing one pea variety selected for wirey strong vines and purple pods and a couple others for taste. This is my third year with those and I am getting sweeter pods on wirey vines but the vines aren't quite as strong or tall. So, I planted some of the original wirey vine seeds to try pushing the line that way more.
Some trait selection is unintentional. The plants are going to adapt to you as well. They will adapt to how you plant, harvest, and save the seed. With my grains some of the plants are too short to harvest with a sickle comfortably. Those go in the eat or feed to chickens pile. Some also don't separate from the plants when I thresh by hand. Also to the chickens. What I am left with are seeds that were easier to process just by not being super careful to get everything. With biennials or clonal root crops you will also unintentionally select for plants that store well as you have to keep the roots over winter to plant them in the spring.
I started saving seed about 5 years ago so nothing has really stabilized into something that could be considered a new variety. But, I have seen the steps closer to my goals.
Purchased seeds are a narrow part of that plants gene pool. If they are open pollinated they were bred until most of the produced seeds make the same looking and tasting plant in a specific environment. Really, if you are gardening, you should learn how to save seeds unless you have a seed grower near you. If you save seeds you will also have more seed than you know what to do with.
But that's not really realistic anymore. If someone like the other poster, who has the space (both to maintain a large enough population as well as the distance from other gardeners who might be growing modern strains), the time, and the interest, they can indeed be doing the "best" thing from a genetic diversity perspective (as long as they make sure that their strain doesn't die with them). But those people are very, very rare. So the next-best option is to try and maintain the current genetic diversity we have, in a persistent way (as opposed to a static way in seed banks), by having breeders breed as many different varieties as possible. They will hopefully be following the dual mandate of maintaining unique traits while also allowing adaptation to changing conditions.
Your average gardener, even if they wanted to, can't maintain any real genetic diversity because A) they don't have the space for a viable population and B) their genetics will constantly be contaminated by their neighbor growing Early Girl or something. So making sure that the already extant genetic diversity doesn't dissapear by supporting heirloom breeding is not the "optimal" solution to genetic diversity, but it is, in my opinion, the best "realistic" solution.
Alas, there are too many humans for that. So, either you support the plants, or one of us has to give - plants or humans. Humans aren't known for giving in, which means slim odds for unsupported plants.
I know the author is not arguing to tear down all the seed banks, they're saying we should keep plants alive by growing them. But I don't see how it pencils out. To me, this article makes the case for seed banks stronger by pointing out how that proposition is just impossible in reality.
That’s perhaps overstating things, but remove biofuels and we would have an even larger surplus even as everyone gets fat from excess production. Western farming has no real need for increased efficiency unless we get rid of a lot of farmland.
Grapes, apples, and a few others get labels but I see a lot of generic items. Do you know the exact kind of carrots you’re buying in those little bags? Are your pumpkins just labeled pumpkins? How about blueberries etc etc.
That about summarizes these types of articles. Solutions that do not require the world to change its behavior should be favored. Perhaps we could launch seed containers into low orbits such that they automatically and safely return to earth centuries in the future just in case.
Almost everything we have, from religion to politics to technology to morality to language to culture, etc. etc., all comes from people who intentionally changed things. Compare us to our ancestors 10,000 years ago, nomads emerging from the Paleolithic with only stone tools, no writing, etc.
Reactionary perspectives - the hot trend of the unwitting - seem to think that the world was what they grew up with, as some natural state. Someone dreamed, worked, sacrificed, persuaded, etc. to make it this way.
It's great news - we can do it; we can make a better world. You don't have to be Copernicus or Jefferson to do it. Our ancestors paved the way, put down lane markers and signs, gave us every tool we need. What are you waiting for?
Let's not forget that the world's largest famine was only 60 some years ago and was due to someone persuading a country that food yield should be a lower priority. GMOs and factory farming are the tech that moved humanity forward, the tech that people dreamed, worked and sacrificed for. People no longer starve because some locusts ate all their crops or there wasn't enough rainfall, and that's a pretty big deal.
There's zero nuance in this article, it is heavily biased and has no consideration for the negative externalities such as the lower and less predictable yields, the increased difficulty in farming and processing all the different grains, the cost and risk that the farmers are taking on by planting them.
We almost caused a famine in Sri Lanka recently by pressuring the government into banning chemical fertilizers, causing an economic crash (not the only reason but a significant one). I'm all for progress, but how about we be careful with all the "dreams" that have a decent chance of causing mass starvation.
Aren't we still those people? Aren't stone tools, and tools made of wood, bone, and other plant & animal parts, enough? They don't require smelting (though I wouldn't be surprised if someone(s) 10,000 years ago got curious about the metal bits in their fire and traced it back to iron deposits in the sediment stuck to the wood gathered from a dry riverbed), and are far less environmentally damaging than a lot of the stuff we make these days.
Numerous other animals make and use tools, and plenty others don't seem to, and they get by okay- a meaningful life can be lived without the technological trappings we've cocooned ourselves in.
I take neither this phone nor reading and writing for granted; it's all wonderful and unnecessary technology. Who needs to read & write when you are part of a tight-knit, mutually-supportive community with a rich oral tradition going back millennia?
We don't need every application of technology, but the rest is a fantasy.
Also, if that small farm is something you dream about, I strongly suggest actually working on a farm for a while. It is surprisingly not fun. I know "I'm gonna have a farm" is a popular escapist things for many folks in tech - it is for me as well, the fantasy is great :) It's just good to know what that actually means, and then deciding if you really want to do that. (For me, it means I have three plants on my balcony to keep the dream, and skip the full experience because I know I wouldn't enjoy it)
Maybe because I grew up on a farm and this is returning, but also because I do expect about 4 billion people to die in the coming climate decline? collapse? and would like to leave better more resilient bones (buildings, good soil, lumber trees, good game, maybe some tools, landrace seeds etc), the skeleton of a more sustainable life to those who come after.
Actually, I love farm work. I grew up in the country and did quite a bit of farm work when I was younger. It felt great to be outdoors, and not have the constant massive stress I now have as a knowledge worker with ADHD. But it pays poorly and is hard on your body.
I've both done that, and I sit in an office chair 8 hours a day. Anyone who prefers the latter has a different set of maladaptive personality defects than I do.
> This is likely not an answer. Small-scale sustenance farming is not enough to support humanity at scale.
It's ok. No one really needs to think about that anymore. When fertility rates went sub-replacement, humanity became functionally extinct, at least in those regions. Everyone's planning a future for their species which it no longer has.
> I know "I'm gonna have a farm" is a popular escapist things for many folks in tech - it is for me as well, the fantasy is great
Not a fantasy. I'm a few weeks/months away from buying a combine. I have a particular model in mind (John Deere model 42), but the used market is a little difficult to deal with. I may end up paying a few thousand to have it shipped from out of state (or even Canada), but no one can tell me if it's narrow enough to fit on a flatbed trailer.
I have less of a clear idea about what tractor to pull it with, I really need something up around 100hp, something gen ii probably. A 4230 with a cab sounds nice, but it's like 9 gallons of diesel an hour. I'd grow sunflowers for the fuel, and I'm experimenting with a chloralkali machine for the soda lye (there are places not far away with salt springs, so I'm looking for real estate like that for salt). Currently assembling a larger machine I've got half-designed. Would use butanol instead of methanol.
Not sure I could survive in a place where all I can do and hope for is "a balcony with some houseplants". Sounds soul-crushing.
That is... also a way to look at it.
1) Migration is a thing, so unless total fertility is sub-replacement, "functionally extinct" is a tad bit premature. Turns out that across the world, we're still above replacement rate.
2) Fertility rates do change over time. E.g. the fact of group size temporarily inducing stress-related infertility until a population is below a certain level is well-known and understood. Here's a great experiment on it: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11100725/
It's at least plausible that sub-replacement rates in humans are a similar self-regulation mechanism. I'd suggest that "functionally extinct" is maybe a bit of a premature judgment.
Yeh, the mathematically correct way. There are only about 4-5 generations of humans on the planet at any given point in time. Only the youngest of those can create the next generation. If each generation is getting smaller than the previous because the fertility rate's low, why would you expect population to stabilize?
> Migration is a thing, so unless total fertility is sub-replacement,
Outsourcing your fertility to countries with rapidly declining fertility probably isn't a long term (or short term) fix for the problem.
> "functionally extinct" is a tad bit premature.
In less than 25 years, it will be global. Unless you believe that in a handful of African countries that it will stay above 5 forever, even though it was twice that less than 80 years ago.
> the fact of group size temporarily inducing stress-related infertility until a population is below
So, you believe that all the little girls who exist today, who grow up as only children, who have no aunts or cousins, who see their school teachers childless, all their role models childless... they'll grow up themselves and say "Wow, I want 9 children of my own!"?
I think you're confusing the models here. The moose don't have low fertility, it's as high as ever, but the wolves eat so many offspring, or the food sources so sparse they starve.
In the stress-induced models like Calhoun's mice, population never recovers. The mice become extinct. Even though there's plenty of food, plenty of water, plenty of entertainment. Even after the population crashes, and there's no overcrowding, even then their fertility rates are so low that they just go extinct.
I have no doubt that unless you're in your 60s, you'll one day come to understand that I was correct. This is coming, and nothing other than underwhelming horror at the thought of me being correct explains why you choose to argue about it. HN is filled with people who understand how to predict trends with lines on a chart, and you know or could quickly verify which way fertility numbers are trending. Which direction it is that they can only trend, at this point. "Functionally extinct" is indeed the perfectly correct term for this. It's what you call a species that still has living extant specimens, but for which there is no realistic way for the species to survive in the long term. That's humans.
1) How many calories does a human need to survive?
2) How many calories can we squeeze out of an acre of arable land?
3) How many acres of arable land are there?
The first one is pretty much immutable.
The third one is maybe somewhat mutable, but to a very limited extent. We can squabble how much, but let's assume it's fairly immutable. Large changes would need energy amounts that are currently prohibitive.
That leaves calories per acre. And that's where ag-industrial methods had an impact that's absolutely bonkers[1].
As the graph shows, this is not a fixed number - that's why Malthus' predictions ultimately didn't come to pass - but you need ag-industry to squeeze out those numbers. (Without mechanized agriculture, massive production of artificial fertilizer, and Borlaug's dwarf wheat, Earth would have run into massive hunger by the end of the 80s - look for "Green Revolution" for lots of info on that)
And small scale subsistence farming (which is what most folks think of when the say "I want to grow food") cannot utilize all of those techniques.
That's also where the "4 billion" number comes from - we know how many calories/acre non-industrial farming generated, and it was at best enough calories for ~4 billion people. Optimistically.
[1] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/USDA-per-acre-crop-produ...
So, no.
Neither does that explanation account for overconsumption, food waste & spoilage, crop mixes, erosion & desertification, water supply shifts, etc...
It's a very basic upper bound. The number of people who could be fed in the best case.
But, crucially, these small farms could not grow the plants they chose to grow, instead they would have to grow an assortment of diverse species or cultivars, for no other reason than to support a living diversity. 99.9% of the plants you'd be growing would be plants that people decided a long time ago that they didn't want to eat, or use for any other purpose, because there was a better alternative.
Ignore the money part. That was me saying that, if consumption/purchasing of plants is more or less stable, then if you introduce 200,000 varieties of plants into the world, every plant would be sold a lot less. It would be more or less impossible to make a living as a farmer.
It's called a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plant_nursery and many specialized in native and obscure cultivars.
The leading zero is a way to trigger people to think about the next 10,000 years.
Consider how much of a rabbit hole YouTube can be and then imagine that the subsection of humanity that uses or is able to use YouTube is just a small part of it. A few topics and projects get a lot of attention but there are - I suppose - millions more with a dedicated fan base.
Then that needs to be placed into a cell with valid RNAs, compatible chloroplasts and mitochondria, compatible proteins in a compatible configuration, etc.
Creating all of that de novo for a plant is well beyond current capabilities.
This is why when we clone e.g. a sheep, we transfer a nucleus from the cell of one individual into the cell of a different individual. It is much easier to mix and match pieces of different cells from the same species, than to create those pieces from raw materials.
And then consider that life is always built by other life, there is no bootstrapping from source code happening. Compare with Ken Thompson's "Reflections on Trusting Trust", and realize that the most important bits about life may not even be encoded in the DNA, but rather in the runtime state that's passed "out of band" from generation to generation.
Thank you for pointing out this similarity. While a piece of software is infinitely replicable - a simple git clone from GitHub would suffice -, the surrounding software ecosystem - compilers, interpreters, installers, linkers, operating systems - needs to be in place, as well as the hardware.
The comparison is apt, and highlights a relevant difference.
the only thing that actually stores data is people, and the only reason they store it is because they care about it and still use it, but also they must live in an environment, social, physical, and governmental, that enables them and allows them to care.
Instead of putting a significant proportion of the blame squarely where it belongs the author just beats about the bush.
https://regenerationinternational.org/2020/11/01/one-empire-...
But how do I get it, to eat?
“farmers have come to rely on a few varieties of olive…these trees, some of them over 2,000 years old, are succumbing to a bacterium, imported on ornamental coffee plants“
The global transport of random pants just to be pretty in our gardens is a major factor in the spread of infectious diseases and invasive species. We (EU) need to legislate to stop garden centers encouraging people to plant infected/invasive species in our gardens which then spreads to our important food crops. Especially as there’s an abundance of native species that will not only brighten your garden but also support our ecosystem?
This is an issue that the colonies of Europe dealt with 100’s of years ago as European settlers brought seeds and livestock to the Americans and Australia which got a foot hold in the new world and still to this day cause havoc.
It’s speculated that invasive plant species flourished Australia and the Americas because of the initial advantage of seed arriving on the hoofs of livestock. It took much longer and even to this day less voracious, for species of the New World to invade Europe.
An interesting cavet of human interference is the introduction of the Cane Toad to Australia in the 1930’s to combat an accidentally introduced beatle which was decimating the sugar cane harvest. It was only realised after the toad’s introduction that the beetle spent most of its life up high on the sugar cane while the toad living its life on the ground couldn’t reach it.
The toad to this day causes havoc to the native species of Australia and has spread rapidly with no natural predators.
Most interesting of all there is relatively recent evidence of Australias native fire ants adapting their behaviour and as a social species carry an entire toad back to their nest and consume it!
> The Long Now Foundation is a nonprofit established in 01996 to foster long-term thinking.
Seems that it's adding a zero to make you think of the future, and thinking over long periods of time. Looking at scales of thousands of years instead of tens or even hundreds.
I get the point but it's an extremely nuanced point to the point it might be a poor generalisation even with the content of the article considered.
Founded by Russian Empire, propped forward by the USSR.
Both of these entities see so much undeserved slander from Ukrainian state and the whole world, so that neither deserve to inherit it.
Have your own Mickey Mouse Decolonial seed bank, use that one.
Same story with Syria which was purposefully destroyed by the US/EU. They didn't dislodge Assad but they did loot and then lose the seed bank.