Akiya houses: why Japan has nine million empty homes

If you look around Tokyo and see the dumbest set up parking lot possible, it's often a land owner who's just gotta put something there.

My guess: tearing all those buildings down and dealing with the trash and demolished materials takes a lot of labor and possibly a "supply chain" (since you're presumably centralizing it for dumping/incineration). But the circumstances that got you into the situation are 1) shrinking population (small labor force) and 2) too much space in the countryside that people already consider low-value. Essentially, you don't want to incentivize a demolition industry expansion to clear land no one wants anyway; there are more important things to be doing.

Probably still too early to say whether the change is having an impact, or how broadly it is being enforced.

[1] https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2023-07-02/jap...

Obviously it backfired.

"Since the 1980s, China has built enough new housing to re-house the entire population but the construction boom has become a self-sustaining, perpetual engine of construction for the sake of construction – supply with no demand. And there are not just miles of empty apartment blocks but entire “ghost cities” complete with office towers, hospitals, schools, futuristic airports, museums, universities, libraries, theaters, sports fields, and miles and miles of apartment towers and subdivisions of McMansions – but almost no people. (20) Twenty-one percent of China’s urban residents, the wealthy and middle classes, own two urban apartments, some own three or four – all bought for speculation, not to live in, not vacation homes. More than 22.4 percent of urban apartments and houses remained vacant in 2014. (21) By one estimate, more than 64 million surplus apartments had been built in China, enough to house almost half the population of the United States, yet millions more are under construction."

> If each vacant home is occupied by a household of 2.76 [2], there are about 510 million vacant homes in China.

Considering the literal rows of tents that pop up outside my apartment because so many people can't afford the fucking astronomically high rents here in America anymore, that sounds like a FANTASTIC "problem" to have!

I didn’t compare Italy and Germany with Japan either.

Excess PRC square footage in housing inventory is enough for 100-150m people. About 10 years of urbanization headroom. PRC continuing trend to urbanize from 65%->80/80% still has to resettle 200-300m to urban areas. This is without accounting for deprecated housing stock. Yes reality of speculation and (mis)allocation is much messier, but PRC is still 100-150m short on urban housing, they just also have a very wasteful 100-150m decade long housing runway.

For reference 80% urbanized US is short on ~6M homes, that's 2% relative to population. PRC gunning for 80% urbanization = PRC is net short 7-10%. Realistically much higher since a lot of people in rural stuck in very shitty housing stock. I mean that's their choice, and economics of relocating people who can't afford new homes is going to be... interesting. But part of urbanization goal is to move 100s in prexisting shitty tier5 homes into modern housing. Especially elderly whose going to be in <2 people households.

Houses with more intrinsic value -- for example, traditional timber-frame homes, or machiya in Kyoto -- have more interest for remodelers, even today.

I can imagine this is significant because japanese cities are probably very pleasant to live in, since they are safe and people are very self controlled.

(cities in the US for instance, generally have city benefits, but on balance require street smarts and caution)

So if you're going to sell your house you may get a more eager buyer if you knock it down first.

I think it's simply a communication and logistics problem to match people from other areas to empty homes. If anything, Japan and such should explicitly incentivize and encourage migration to declining areas to ensure their own tax base.

As simple as it is, I never though of it this way. It makes more sense to me than the commonly accepted explanation that kids are a liability in modern life. Thanks!

Local municipalities are going to be very skeptical of anyone without residence buying such a home.

The thing I found strangest is that some of the houses featured were in beach towns not that far from Tokyo. If I were a middle-class Japanese family, I’d be buying one of these as a weekender.

Technically, I am resident in Tokyo but own and live in a house in Nagano. It had been empty for 6 years, but not abandoned when I bought it 2 years ago. Here is what I know:

- There is no residence requirement to own property in Japan. You can be domiciled anywhere.

- Even for a government-sold Akiya, you will pay some reasonable fees to realtor and scrivener.

- You probably will not be able to get a loan if domiciled overseas.

- Legal is not particularly difficult (compared to other countries). I have only done it in person, and cannot imagine doing it remotely.

- There is no option to do legal in English. You will need a Japanese speaker. Or at least let them explain the documents at your level. They will do so sincerely.

- If your akiya includes farmland, you will need to demonstrate a plan to farm it. If the plan is not accepted by local govt, or you don't fulfill the plan, the sale may be voided.

- It is generally not a scammy environment. ymmv.

Anyone thinking to buy property in Iida, Nagano please look me up.

It also has a criminal justice system that convicts everyone who ends up in court (being a Japanese judge seems to be easy street redefined) and prison conditions are terrible.

Oh, and if you're black, expect to be constantly followed/stopped by plainclothes police who will demand your identity card, while not identifying themselves.

Given I'm Japanese, it would be much harder for immigrants...

You would also need to pay real-estate taxes, as well as any income/capital gains taxes you made on the property. Japan also has "neighborhood associations" [1] that coordinate/provide services like trash pickup and snow removal that you probably should join, although I'm not sure if its's legally required.

There are real-estate agents in Japan that specialize in working with international clients. Presumably they could streamline a lot of the process for you. There are also property management companies that could provide a lot of different services, such as basic maintanence, finding renters, etc. As someone who would be absent from Japan for long stretches of time, I think realistically you would need to pay for some of these services (unless you know someone who could look after the property for you).

[1] https://mailmate.jp/blog/neighborhood-associations-japan

Incentives are a blunt instrument. They necessarily push in the wrong direction sometimes, because they’re dumb rules. Beware one-size-fits-all solutions.

Maybe don't buy property as an investment, but if someone actually wants to live in Japan, finds a nice bit of land, and can affordably build a nice place for themself in a small town or countryside I doubt the declining population is going to make them think twice.

Also while Japan's population declines overall, it also concentrates in a few metropolises, so rural land becomes cheaper, but also ever less attractive. Same with smaller cities. Japan is not going to have "ridiculously affordable housing for the foreseeable future", because the cheap housing is not where people are looking for housing. It's like saying that the US has affordable housing because NM has cheap land.

However, Japan remains very resistant to accepting permanent immigration.