A decade of repeated, unfulfilled FSD promises does not inspire confidence in more of the same.
Musk is chasing an illusion instead of simply focusing on making reliable, competitive transportation.
Tesla is no longer a "growth" stock.
Not withstanding how folks might reasonably hate the CEO, or want different features than offered by the two main selling affordable cars, Consumer Reports is pretty easy to check and there are far, far, more reliable electric cars at this point.
The reality distortion field of "every negative thing out there is just a personal attack out to destroy Musk" only holds out for so long.
It seems like Tesla had to go "Hail Mary" on the dream/scam of "FSD" as a head start in electric vehicles doesn't provide any moat/advantage for simple vehicle sales. Whatever temporary advantage Tesla had in the drivetrain is negated by how much work that had to do to create (and often reinvent) every other part of car manufacturing.
Just turning the wipers on becomes a road safety hazard.
Using a touch screen while driving is now illegal in most states --- and for good reason. Tesla *requires* the use of a touch screen.
Essentially he makes the point that, if you have to own a fleet and maintain it, even if you stop paying driver's wages, you're not making profit compared to market rates for Uber drivers. Sad implication is that uber drivers themselves are underwater after taking into account depreciation and maintenance.
A fleet where Tesla operates a network without needing to own or maintain the capital equipment is a lot more profitable, and they're one of the few companies positioned to pull it off (certainly not Waymo). Essentially, Tesla could make money on the vehicle sale, make money on the maintenance, and make a platform fee on the taxi network. Wonderful economics on paper.
Win-win too: the car-owners supply the capital and in return receive the freedom of their own car plus an offset to their depreciation via the rental cash flow. That would mean that teslas would have incredible resale value compared to 'dumb' cars that don't produce cashflow.
That said, trust in the network is key, and Tesla + Musk aren't exactly winning public trust recently. If this is going to work, each incremental rider needs to be able to trust that
- if they try to book a Tesla robotaxi they will be able to find one available, nearby and in the time they want it
- the car will work (well maintained, enough charge for their trip duration)
- the self-driving will be safe
While all those things are straightforward, to be honest, it's hard for me to imagine how they can provide a better value proposition than human Uber/Lyft in that regard, where in major cities a car is always 10 min away or less, and the driver has both a financial and survival interest in ensuring it's well maintained and safe (the driver's life also depends on it).
Maybe the niche will be suburban or exurban places where human ride shares don't have enough demand to efficiently match with supply, and where people are okay waiting / planning in advance if they're sure a car will come. Could be some overlap with starlink market fit.
Maybe he is just looking for something, anything to give the stock price a jolt and help encourage investors to flat out give him $56B.
They could do something wild like partner with manufacturers if they decided that wide deployment onto consumer cars was a good path.
Your implicit assumption is that robotaxis are competing on price with Uber drivers in their personally owned cars.
But as we can see today with fully autonomous Waymo cars, this is positioned as a premium product, with premium pricing, significantly higher than Uber X.
If I have a choice between Waymo, Uber and Lyft, I'd eagerly pay twice the rideshare rate for the consistently high-quality experience and predictable comfort, safety, and distraction-free ride that Waymo offers. With Uber, I never know what I'm going to get.
If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private.
He couldn't care less about the market or its needs.We live in a capitalist society and Elon Musk won capitalism. The man famously doesn't pay bills. He doesn't pay rent. He illegally put a giant light-up X on top of Twitter HQ that the police had to remove. He plays with companies like a kid playing with toys. He believes the rules don't apply to him, thus far he's been proven correct (possibly with the exception of being forced to buy Twitter - but he can afford to burn that to the ground if he wants.) He's gotten away with things that would have landed lesser people in prison many, many times, and has more money to throw at the consequences of his actions than most governments.
What you wrote rings true, especially the "would have landed lesser people in prison many, many times" part.
Every FUCKING charging station needs a different app and the credit card endpoints never FUCKING work.
So the decision to cut back on Superchargers is a bit of a head scratcher.