I don't see a flattening. I see a lot of other groups catching up to OpenAI and some even slightly surpassing them like Claude 3 Opus. I'm very interested in how Llama 3 400B turns out but my conservative prediction (backed by Meta's early evaluations) is that it will be at least as good as GPT 4. It's been a little over a year since GPT 4 was released to the public and in that time Meta and Anthropic seem to have caught up and Google would have too if they spent less time tying themselves up in knots. So OpenAI has a 1 year lead though they seem to have spent some of that time on making inference less expensive which is not a terrible choice. If they release 4.5 or 5 and it flops or isn't much better then maybe you are right but it's very premature to call the race now, maybe 2 years from now with little progress from anyone.