Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe
theins.ru
theins.ru
Wouldn't the Greek airline (and Greek exit immigration control) check for a valid Russian visa for a Czech passport? They had to put the exit stamp on _something_?
Or did she use the Russian passport, but then wouldn't that get scanned into the system?
This doesn't mean that it must be the same document that you used to enter or exit the country though, although depending on the destination the airline may require proof that you can enter the destination country, like a visa or a passport, because having a passenger refused entry may be an hassle for them.
You can use a document to exit the departure country, another for the airline (with the caveat above) and another one for the destination, even with different names on them.
I mean… isn’t that built-in to the system already? I never supposed entering Thailand that I wasn’t already known to the Thai border police, who surely must have checked that I’m not a banned and/or wanted criminal, right? Or is this system supposed to a single safety net of the destination’s border agent recognizing a fake passport just by checking the numbers in a DB? Is that why TPB’s founders escaped to Thailand, is this why Wolkswagen’s pollution manager thought he could cross the USA freely on holidays without spending 8 years in jail, is this why Carlos Ghosn escaped Japan?
Or do countries carefully avoid reaching an agreement on airline IT systems, just because they do need each others’ spies to cross freely?
Leave Canada on Canadian passport. You just get nods and wave throughs. Enter European country on EU passport in the smaller line (or nowadays automated border control stations). Just scan passport, (don't) smile for the photo and off you go. Flying back Canadian passport is on file and the CBSA just asks you some basic questions and waves you through.
[1] > U.S. nationals, including U.S. dual nationals, must use a U.S. passport to enter and leave the United States.
And the German foreign ministry says it's international practice to do so, but says "should" instead of "must":
[2] > Bei Doppelstaatern (Erwachsene und Kinder) ist zu beachten, dass nach internationaler Übung
> - die Einreise nach und die Ausreise aus Deutschland nur mit deutschem Reisepass oder Passersatz, z.B. Personalausweis
> - die Einreise in und die Ausreise aus dem anderen Staat (dessen Staatsangehörigkeit die Betreffenden ebenfalls besitzen) nur mit den nationalen Dokumenten des anderen Staates
> erfolgen sollte.
Also a requirement for Canadian dual citizens [3]
I guess it'd be interesting if one has a EU passport but is entering the EU through another Schengen country (eg. A dual Canadian - Italian citizen flying from Canada to Germany). Logic says keep it simple and show the EU passport, but is there a EU clause somewhere that requires that?
[1] https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/travel-lega...
[2] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/reisepaesse-personalauswe...
[3] https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/se...
I have been to several EU countries and none of them cared for the Canadian passport. Tried showing both at the beginning. They don't care. So we only show the EU one now.
Also funny: showing "the other passport only" because you don't have a current one. Like try using the Canadian one if you don't have a current EU passport (expired, never had one yet etc). Takes longer. Works too. Haven't tried recently so things might have changed.
Leaving an EU country has never required the EU passport. In fact having the Canadian on file is a requirement. Otherwise they call your name at the gate because you neither have a Canadian passport nor an electronic authorization on file and thus they can't let you board. So doesn't work in reverse nowadays.
edit: they certainly do not anywhere rely on eyeballing a piece of paper and letting some random staff member say "yup looks legit".
* don't want to be recorded as an overstayer
Some countries make the airline need to know in advance whether to let you even board. Say the US with the electronic visaless authorization. You gotta give the airline your ESTA. Canada wants to know as well. So you need to have your PR card or Canadian passport on file or the electronic authorization.
But that doesn't stop you from entering Europe on a European passport. You can have your say Canadian passport on file and fly out on that. At the destination you show your European passport (smaller line ups and basically you are just waived through). You never show the Canadian passport in the EU on arrival. You have the Canadian one on file and show that when leaving so they let you board. Back in Canada you use your Canadian passport to enter.
This way you never get any visa stamps and you "fly through passport control" on either end.
So yeah, even if this is maybe used by "sleeper agents" it's also just normal for dual citizens.
This is not really new. Back when steamship was the most common way of traveling between continents, the ocean lines gave lessons to the third-class passengers on what to say to US immigration officials so that they wouldn't have to pay for their lodging and return if they got denied entry. (At the time first-class passengers were not screened this way, so they didn't bother teaching them.)
Also a nice fun fact about steamships I did not know. Love learning little tidbits like that!
If airlines could be fooled, you'd think at least Swiss banks would do some KYC
Are exit stamps a thing in Schengen area for EU citizens? I usually just pass an automatic gate after scanning the passport. It does not have any European marks. Stamp is historically a permission to leave, which EU citizens do not need: we are free to leave and return back.
Curiously, just checking now, I didn't get any stamp on the UK side when I went to/from Scotland by plane a few years ago.
There's no exit stamp for EU citizens leaving the EU. Also nobody cares whether you actually have a valid visa for the place you're going. It's not their responsibility. Maybe somewhere in some paperwork they make you say that you do and nominally they're supposed to check it, but I'm not sure anyone actually does.
Of course airlines do not care about documents allowing you entry to the departure point.
Why would a Russian citizen go through the hoops of getting a Russian visa on their Czech passport? Does Czechia not allow dual citizenship to call the second secret?
If just one of them goes missing, then I am stranded — no matter which country I'm in or which passport I lost — until I can get it renewed. It is illegal for me to just get a visa on my other passport and travel on that instead.
The reality of entering a country of citizenship is they want you to use that country's passport.
For instance you have to use your Australian passport to enter Australia.
To enter the US you should use your US passport (and have your other passports handy), but strictly speaking you don't need any passport to enter the US as a citizen, you just need to be able to establish your identity.
This can sometimes lead to tricky situations, because another party, the airline, considers you to have only one passport (declared for your ticket) and definitely not change passports from one end of a trip to the other.
The stupid thing that almost no one provides for people who have multiple passports. Often you have to choose to declare the one that makes your life the easiest, or at least breaks the fewest rules.
It’s way better than any basic cable TV show had any right to be. Plus, all seasons are streaming on Hulu, so you don’t have to worry about whether the story will be completed.
https://www.hulu.com/series/the-americans-6deba130-65fb-4816...
Don't do FX like that.
They had a juggernaut lineup of great shows at the time (which is why The Americans kind of got pushed to a backburner).
Then, a couple years later, I needed something to watch during long exercise sessions and I checked it out again. It was getting much more interesting by the end of the first season.
And every season got better and richer. By the very end, I experienced it as actually deep, especially in the way the Keri Russell character unexpectedly evolves. It was a real pleasure and I'm very glad I had the chance to enjoy it. Recommended!
I only know of a few examples where writers escape this. The first is to have the episodes be essentially disconnected from one another (e.g. Star Trek). The other is what "The Wire" did by having each season have its own plot that is properly resolved at the end of each season.
Some people like episodic TV, some people prefer serialized.
There are lots of mini-series which do book adaptations but it's hard to come up with examples that span multiple seasons: "My Brilliant Friend" did it I think and maybe you could argue early "Game of Thrones" but the story was never finished in book form either so it couldn't be said to be telling a complete story.
I don;t think "The Wire" gets enough credit for creating a format that conformed to the constraints of TV production while still being able to tell stories that spanned many episodes. You could have ended the series at any season (had it been cancelled) and it wouldn't have felt incomplete and yet the final season did feel like it completed an even larger story arc.
They’ll set up what feels like a season finale in most episodes, then instead of resolving it in the next, quickly toss it aside or even just ignore it. It’s not good, and I would not recommend it at all, but it’s maybe the weirdest show I’ve seen.
I remain unsure whether the writers were aware they were writing one extremely-long joke about television writing, or if they thought it was actually good.
Watching without the cliffhanger/socializing "what's next" discussion, and seeing them discard 87.3% of all plot points with reckless abandon made me hate the show after watching 2-3 seasons.
It’s nuts. If that sounds awesome, I assure you, it’s not, nothing ever matters in that show. Fascination at its commitment to a particular way of being terrible, and a little bit of joy from trying to describe the show to people who haven’t seen it (often they think I’m making stuff up) is what got me through.
I get that Lost is a show with a lot of problems, but this is a show dedicated to having a lot of problems. It’s swinging for the fences of having-problems. It’s astonishing. It’s… an achievement? It’s terrible. It’s the inverse of a miracle that it exists.
I watched a couple episodes of The Diplomat and couldn't get into it. I'll give it another try.
If that show had aired on a real broadcast network (as JJ Abrams' next shows were) and not on The WB, she would have been nominated for Emmys out the wazoo. As it was, she won the Golden Globe for that first season, but she should have at least been nominated for the Emmy for her work on that show, because she was every bit as good or better than her peers on cable or network.
I have a running theory that The Americans and The Diplomat are in fact set in the same universe. Keri Russell is still playing the same character, a deep-cover Russian agent, and now she has infiltrated the upper echelons of the US government...
We're at season 5 atm and up until this point, I can confirm the ratings.
...I just wish I could find that reddit post again. Can't remember if there were others good shows on it.
Strong advice for any show.
I now follow this advice with all shows. I’ll give it a full season to see if they develop something I’m interested in following.
Is he the hunchback brother of Bob Iger, Disney CEO?
It's a fantastic show and while there are certainly some smaller arcs that could have been written better as is the case with any long-running show, especially one made for cable, it doesn't spend the two seasons completely destroying its reputation like most do. It ended at just the right time.
- take a year or two to find their footing or
- have a large cast (some mediocre) that get their own story lines of no consequence occasionally or
- introduce cast members that don't make it or
- implode towards the final season.
I have done this for many series that are somewhat uneven:
- The Americans
- How I Met Your Mother
- Fringe
- Orphan Black
- Halt and Catch Fire
- House of Cards (watching the ratings allows you to miss all of season 6)
- Arrested Development
- Bojack Horseman
- Veep
- 30 Rock
- Jane the Virgin
- Black Mirror
- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
- Suits
- Six Feet Under
- La Femme Nikita
- The Blacklist
- Peaky Blinders
- The Romanoffs
- Ozark
- Westworld (sometimes dropping episodes does not matter)
- Succession
- Borgen
And all of these series have lots of strong episodes.
Series I would not do this with:
- The Bear
- Breaking Bad
- Money Heist
- The Serpent
- Fleabag
- Chernobyl
- The White Lotus
I'll go through this list and start from episode 1, though, so I appreciate the list of good shows!
Albeit, we got bored of money heist after season 1.
- outstanding performances by Spanish actresses Ursula Corbrero, Itziar Ituno, Alba Flores, and Najwa Nimri and
- humming Bella Ciao to yourself for two months.
There were always a few "filler" episodes that didn't move the story forward much, if at all.
But sometimes those filler's are just good tropey fun! :-)
I did watch half the first season years ago and wasn't too captured, will give it another go.
EDIT: someone else mentioned Tinker Tailor (either the '80s BBC miniseries or the Gary Oldman movie - once again he's killing it) which is far more grounded. That might be more up your street? I enjoyed both a lot. Bleak as hell though.
It's called Realism.
Alec Guinness owns Smiley. Just perfect. Absolutely gripping yet low budget [+] it actually demands that you use your intellect to keep up. If you haven't seen those I say whip up ye old torrent client and get some.
Anyways, I did say "too greatly". Someone up there says "no spoilers" so ..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezekuICeYlg&list=PLSpG6jj23V...
Watched with my father growing up, may even have some home copies myself.
I mean this is just American politics in general.
I've just started season 3 so no spoilers please :)
I had read and enjoyed the first two books. After the first couple of episodes I had to admit I was watching it for Gary Oldman more than anything else. I'd watch just a supercut of him expressing disdain for and disappointment with his subordinates.
This is why I could never get into House of Cards, it's just so over the top compared to something like Borgen which for me to this day is still one of the best political dramas ever made, also sadly went somewhat under the radar especially across the pond.
Until Season 4?. Whenever the re-election campaign started. Joel Kinnaman, while a great actor (loved him in Altered Carbon) was a massive miscast as a plausible candidate for the GOP. Mostly due to youth. And the last season was a Game of Thrones-level utter disaster.
The Last Envoy? What? That did not even become a plot point (at least in season 1, I bailed pretty early in S2). Also, Envoys are terrorists and not the ultimate-special ops forces?
The remake just drags on and on and on. Tons of irrelevant detail and uninteresting sidestories.
That's how I felt about Succession for 3 seasons.
I felt it just dragged and dragged and I couldn't understand what was the fuss.
Then I started watching some YouTube commentary and starting to understand that the irrelevant and uninteresting was actually relevant and interesting.
ATN, the succession, that was all bogus for character development, a setup.
I feel like House of Cards may fall in a similar category there. It's not much about the action but character evolution and dynamics.
The scope and pacing in the original was just perfect. Just because you can layer on more, doesn't mean it's gonna make it better. Much was pure tedium and seemed to serve filling time first and foremost.
That's a very way to express that idea. I'll be reusing that, if you don't mind.. :-) I've always expressed it more crudely as having the feeling of being forcefully lobotomized by the producers..
You'll know when you see a show or a broadcast that gives you the impression your brain is leaking out of your ears.
Maybe I'm wrong but IIRC there's a sex scene in the first five minutes of the pilot. Like, don't insult my intelligence.
For me it's just boring filler and I skip them.
I chuckled and thank you for the compliment!
Also: I agree. It's pretty much always a tedium. Now, American series almost always suffer from that: not just the sex scenes are used as filler, and could be replaced with a line or two suggesting the events if relevant. House of Cards is my go to example: just take the British original for how you can condense the story by a factor of 10 without any loss. Putting it that way: it'd be hilarious if a compression format would work this way.
The real Americans was you, all along
Masha Gessen did some work on making the spoken Russian be more authentic https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/translating-th... ( She must have given up on Keri Russell )
Peter Jacobson (FBI Agent Wolf) appears in comedy Russian TV show inspired by the Americans "Adaptation" https://www.poconorecord.com/story/entertainment/2018/05/26/... . I've seen episode 1 available on the internet, full series is hard to find.
Here is a couple from Germany: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/15/married-pair-r...
They had an oblivious daughter and everything.
"Tehran" (Israeli spy thriller) is another really good spy series. You really get a feel for the oppressive environment in Iran under the thumb of the IRGC.
Also "The Spy" with Sascha Baron Cohen is excellent too.
As drama, it excels in the drama around the marriage rather than the actual fact of them being spies, and has been praised as “fundamentally a show about a marriage”. If you’re looking for a spy thriller, you might look elsewhere. It’s very “American TV” and doesn’t really stray from the formula
Illegals were/are special assets that would never be concurrently running so many different operations and engaging in risky wet (i.e. assassination) operations right and left. More likely they would spend many boring years cultivating their positions in society and a select few important contacts. That doesn't make for good television.
The Sopranos was not especially realistic. But realism wasn't the point; there was just enough verisimilitude to serve the narrative, which was a kind of morality play. It's the same with The Americans, which is at bottom more of a relationship story than one about espionage. (We agree, I think.)
A lot of research went into the show, but it shows up in the same ways research shows up in Mad Men.
Don't watch it expecting to learn a bunch of stuff! That's not the point.
(A top 5 series for me.)
IIRC, there's a bit of sex in The Americans, and a fair bit of discussion of how the spies had to sleep with targets as part of their training, and in the field. The father character also has a pretty dicey relationship with a much younger woman/girl, in order to access her father's home office.
1: https://www.commonsensemedia.org/tv-reviews/the-americans
While it has it's ebs and flows, it never got bad or dull for me.
And it contains a ton of details you might think is for dramatic effect or cinematography, but often it turned out to be based on actual practices, historic fact or just have a practical purpose for the characters.
So many good series made involving the subject though. Both drama and documentary. I mean, you do want drama and not documentary? Cause the story The Americans is inspired by is documented.
For drama, check Deutschland '83 and the two successors. Has a great cast.
And of course there is Clifford Stoll's book about how he caught Hagbard Celine (see the movie '23' with a young August Diehl who later broke through in Hollywood).
German cinema, both West-German and modern, has gems regardless (I am not German btw, subs are easy to come by).
South Korea also has a cinema scene. I once saw a Korean horror and it was unlike anything I saw before. Like, really weird. But it had nothing to do with spy drama.
A lot of spy drama or action from the Cold War era is very over the top and/or propagandist/fear mongering. Drama is dramatized, but can easily be regarded as overdramatized, bending the truth too much in the process. At such point, a good documentary on the subject is probably preferred. The faith I have in a country like China or North Korea being authentic on such matters in documentary is near zero, and thus I assume their drama on the matter will equal the low effort American cinema we saw previous century.
That a band like Laibach was allowed to play in North Korea is very much telling to me.
Back in Soviet Union if you ever get a blessing to visit another country, you have interviews with KGB, one before leaving and one on return. Upon return they asked if you bringing any contraband, currency and one of the question is "Why did you return?".
So, my parents lived with me in NZ for last few months. When they got back dad's boating mates decided to grill him - Why did you return?
To be allowed to leave you had to sign a paper promising to "tell" the secret service on your travel companions after the trip. So everybody on the trip was living in paranoia of one another.
It was mostly to later have some blackmail material on you if you became opposition - you signed the paper so you're an agent of the system.
And when (if) you returned - regular people assumed you have some connections to the regime and treated you like an enemy.
Also, I wonder what the pay is like? Or how it even works.. probably best to not leave a obvious money trail between state and spy..
Epstein's homegirl, Ghislaine, had some pretty strong ties to them through her father. She was probably his handler and/or gopher.
Her dad, Robert Maxwell, born Ján Ludvík Hyman Binyamin Hoch, had some pretty strong ties to Israeli intelligence. Also worth noting he had strong ties to everyone else, including the KGB and UK intelligence, too. But at his funeral Israeli heads of state mentioned "he did more for Israel than could ever be told", and that was thought to be related to Israel acquiring what is believed to be a nuclear weapons program.
He famously sued the hell out of anyone in the UK who alluded to those relationships -- libel and slander laws are different in ole Blighty -- and it took an MP going on the record in the House of Commons, which is always recorded and is always public record, to expose his questionable ties.
He also famously died of highly suspicious circumstances on his boat out in the middle of nowhere.
That said, look into the history of Donald Barr, the father of Bob Barr, and a good friend/mentor of Epstein's. Raised Jewish but converted to Catholicism, served in the OSS, and had a lot of interesting ties to interesting people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Barr
Source: My father[0] was one, for the CIA. Don't think he ever directed "kinetic" stuff, but I guess I'll never know.
How does health insurance work for spy stuff? If the GRU agent gets exposed to novachuck, do they get to see a Russian specialist or do they just have access to the providers in their cover plan?
> If your pay is less than your cover, do you have to give it back?
How can your pay be less than your cover? Your cover job is paying you. Your host agency is not.
> How does health insurance work for spy stuff?
At this point, I'm curious if this is an attempt at humor?
Russia, as most of Europe, has free public health care. You don't have to pay for it.
Also, I think you have some confusion.
1) you are an officer in your army/services. You get your salary on your Russian bank account
2) you have a cover job that pays you. You use that money for your cover life.
you also have a bank account in your home country, and that gets a salary, too.
your insurance is through your cover job, or the country's healthcare system (if socialized). which also means you have crappy insurance salesman coverage :/ twenty years later when you return to the home country to retire you can sup on your pension and any retirement healthcare coverage, but until then it's on you.
> Elena also provided a veneer of plausibility for the Šapošnikovs’ lavish lifestyle. Despite Šapošnikov’s modest income from Imex (around $650 per month), the family bought real estate in Czechia and Greece at a value far in excess of what their collective income could account for. As Czech investigators note, “in some cases their official income could not cover even their phone bill for the month.” Furthermore, Elena owned a company registered in the Marshall Islands and controlled two bank accounts in Switzerland. Those offshore accounts, plus unexplained cash infusions to their Czech banks and a series of in-cash payments, appeared to have been the real source of income.
...
> In 2009 the Šapošnikovs purchased a sprawling villa on the picturesque Aegean peninsula of Halkidiki, Greece. The price, as recorded in the notarial deed of purchase obtained by The Insider, was 275,292 euros, or $300,000 at the time. Elena would later tell investigators that she had funded the investment “with money from my parents” – a tall order for the septuagenarian couple living in Kyiv on pensions of under $300 per month.
Edit: Nothing you wrote contradicts anything I said. Your quote proves my statement. They had other sources of income than their cover provided, and the investigators used that to zero in them. <anotherFacepalm>
Do you have a reputable source for that?
That said, I don't think I've actually seen this distinction made before, and I'd love to hear citations for all the assertions that OP so confidently makes.
Sources:
- Spy museum: Berlin
- Human Intelligence School for the US Amy (in ~07-08)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By_Way_of_Deception
Interesting book about how the Israelis infiltrated Iraq's nuclear weapons program, and the rivalries between the Mossad and other internal organizations in the 80s.
Not all (or even most) intelligence agencies run illegals programs since they're crazy difficult, fragile, expensive, and arguably a waste of effort/resources.
[0] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/05/planes-train...
Capital (big C) does everything it can to extinguish competition -- and would, if not for regulation, trust busting, etc. All large companies are trying to be monopolies to the fullest extent possible, and history shows plenty of examples.
This is a feature, not a bug. This is how a system of checks and balances works in authoritarian countries - the entire security apparatus is duplicated several times over lest one agency becomes too powerful or indispensable. KGB/Ministry of the Interior/Military kept each other in check for much of the later part of the Soviet Union's existence.
Russia also has had at least three armed forces up until recently, the normal one, the Rosgvardia, and the PMC complex including Wagner. All of them have had rather serious equipment, for example Wagner had tanks, artillery, they even had their own air defence like Pantsir and their own aviation.
Running an oppressive, murderous regime sometimes requires crazy solutions.
> “They think—what do they think? That we’re important officials?”
> “No. Of course not. They know we are only pretending that.”
> “Then what—”
> “But they cannot be sure. We might be important officials. But most of them think we are secret police.”
> “But how do you know there are secret police?”
> Benito looked very sad. “Allen, there have to be. You cannot run a bureaucratic state without them. Come.”
-- Inferno, by Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven
I can easily think plenty of countries around the world where security and intelligence duties are often duplicated and overlap.
They were not concerned with the same tasks as KGB/SVR, targeting military technology and the militaries themselves rather than political/security espionage , so they did away with much smaller networks and humbler resources.
But, starting with GWOT, the DIA picked up its own human intelligence. They want it their way, and don't want to play with gatekeepers. The DOD also owns SIGINT via the NSA, which is a military organization headed by an Admiral/General, and they want to be able to pair their existing strengths with HUMINT.
Several NATO countries, esp. the Baltics / Central Europe have been expanding military HUMINT in the same way, esp. in anticipation of Russian infiltration and SF work that was seen in the early days of Ukraine round 2.
In other words, everyone else is doing it, even if it's fragile, expensive, and wasteful.
He wrote that the traditional method to deal with traitors in the GRU is the headquarters furnace: wire the "guilty" to a gurney and feed them in alive.
His writing about Soviet military doctrine is visible today in Ukraine as well. A giant horde of "mechanized infantry," badly led. They're still using some of the same armor.
In fact many of those have shown to be compromised by the Russians from the right extremism side - Maassen in Germany, The Wirecard dude in Austria, etc.
Russian businessmen moved to the EU and the US by the thousand per year. We won't know who of them are "businessmen" and nobody is even pretending to check.
- make tourism/travel harder by limiting visas and having people fly through far away stopovers (Dubai, Istanbul, or Belgrade for those who can afford $2K economy ticket)
- make immigration easier
- make any cross-border business harder - no SWIFT, no way to get in Russian IT-related money and most of the money overall even if transfer happens through 3rd world, etc.
This way people leave, realise they can't live in 2 countries and have to pick, then realise they can't do cross border business nearly as conveniently as they hoped, so concentrate on local or US market, then realise how much easier it is vs doing business in Russia (all they need to do that is a magic kick to initially force them to), and never look back.
Granted, few of them believe in democracy or even opposed to Putin. Mostly they see Europe as "safe place with a system which is easy to game", but that's OK. Their children will integrate and will be different. After all, save for American expats and Hong Kong refugees (who go to UK anyway), these are by far the best kind of immigrants Europe can hope for.
Fabricated personalities can and do get exposed.
There's no point explaining the Russian corruption to me, I lived there for a long time. In this case, however the corruption machine works against Russian agents.
These people are not very smart at all, when you look at recent investigations done on shoestring budgets, many got exposed by extremely simple tradecraft errors and information that can be straight bought from Russian data brokers.
These people are not smart, it’s the western European services that are incompetent, ideologically blind and outdated.
Of course, Bellingcat barely scratched the surface and mainly exposed glorified hitmen rather than actual influence and information agents. There are still probably thousands of illegals with large amounts of legalized money, wide acquaintance networks and zero interest from who should be on top of their arses.
Anecdotally in New Zealand, I know plenty of children of immigrants who have done fine. And their parents that don't integrate (sometimes not even speaking English at all).
AFAIK there isn’t a clean answer to that question.
The lines between businessperson, gangster, intelligence agent are very fluid.
If you gain some success at one of those in Russia you need to start ingratiating yourself with the others because they will come and find you.
It’s like a more brutal version of businessperson / lobbyist in the US. If you want to excel in one you need to be both.
Can you give me an example of a prominent Russia based businessperson who is regularly at odds with the Kremlin?
The US has a few examples of billionaires who decide to take on the White House, sometimes even capturing it for themselves.
That's where you hide your agents, not among major oil or metal company owners (or rather custodians).
How they operate is well described by defectors. Some maintain wide social circles, focusing on Russian emigrants, rich people in general or some other population, like running a hair salon, a real estate agency, a small hotel or some other front.
Some sit quiet and run an errand here and there.
And of course a certain party that is all too fond of the Russian corruption money, literally saying the want Austria to turn into a second Orban regime.
https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000213247/wiener-polizi...
Putin successfully convinced the Germans to abandon nuclear power and then pay him to build a dedicated pipeline into Germany - making all of Europe more dependent on Russia.
...and Germans fell for it. There must be dozens, if not hundreds of Russian operatives in German political offices.
If Russia is so influential in Germany how do you explain Germany importing expensive environmentaly damaging LNG from the USA instead of the cheap Russian environmentally friendly natural gas?
That is very sloppy of Russia. Why even bother doing something so dumb?
> Šapošnikova used this passport to travel between Greece and Russia on at least two occasions, once in December 2015 and the second time in December 2017. In both cases, she used sophisticated tradecraft that sought to leave no trace in databases accessible to European authorities. For instance, she booked her trips and bought her plane tickets using her Czech passport, registering only that nationality with the Greek airline. But upon crossing the Russian border, Šapošnikova used her secret Russian passport, thus bypassing the need to obtain a Russian visa issued to her as a Czech citizen and eliding the digital footprint associated with the relevant application.
How does "bypassing the need to obtain a Russian visa" "elide the digital footprint associated with the relevant application"? Why would the Czech government learn of a visa application to Russia?
The airline most likely would want to know that Šapošnikova had a visa, so they would have looked, and Šapošnikova would have shown them her Russian passport, which the airline probably would have reported to Czech authorities (I imagine that's what happens normally).
So this is just more sloppiness, or at least TFA reaches the wrong conclusion about the point of not Šapošnikova not applying for a visa. Perhaps she should have applied for a visa so as not to have to reveal her Russian passport to the airline, or she should have had a different Russian passport to show the airline.
In any case, having a block of passport numbers for a super-secret ops team is just beyond dumb. It's so dumb that I'm not sure I believe it -- I might sooner believe that such evidence was planted than that such evidence is real, but maybe the Russians just don't have enough Soviet-era intelligence clue left and haven't developed enough post-Soviet intelligence capabilities.
So they’re telling us that Russia is that bad at spying. But the first commercial supersonic jet was the Tupolev 144, not the Concord.
Some old-fashioned generals did not account for the digital footprint that may be left and modern data mining capabilities when they designed it. In fact, that digital footprint may have not existed yet when the entire scheme was designed. When you need to tell everyone doing ID check that this person must not be bothered, you give them plates from some VIP series or a passport with a certain number - it was a common practice in Russia. I'm pretty sure that this has changed in last few years after those investigations and they write the laws and design the databases assuming zero trust (public property registries now hide or obfuscate information about some entries for example).
They are Russian citizens with a Russian passport, they can enter their country without issues.
Because the scheme predates today's digital capabilities.
If you have suspected spies, the first you'd do is pull their entry into the country.
It wouldn't take long to realize the similarity between passport numbers. Even in the 1950's.
You catch 3 spies in 1950. Someone shuffling through their paper files notices the numbers are close in range. You have a suspected 4th, and interestingly the passport number is clustered with the prior 3.
You use a super computer to analyze passport numbers and compare them to 3 known spies. The computer spits out a pattern. [...] You have a suspected 4th, and interestingly the passport number is clustered with the prior 3.
As per the original post it "is part of a numerical range reserved exclusively for members of Unit 29155".
I could see if it wasn't a numerical range, but rather a reserved pattern (e.g. the 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 8th numbers were always sequential), then sure, a super computer could help you analyze known number to find a pattern. But it's just a group of number close in series? That seems discoverable by mere humans.
Except unless they get arrested in the West and their secret passports fall into Western intelligence hands.
> It doesn’t help to block spy operations, because you can connect passport numbers to specific actions only after they happened
But getting caught must be no fun.
> It doesn’t help breaking plausible deniability to blame Russian government officially, because you would need the hard evidence.
Nonsense. A block of sequential passport numbers for supposedly unrelated people you suspect of being spies is evidence plenty hard enough.
- You would have to reserve some numbers that can't be assigned to regular citizens.
- If you make those "random" - you need to store them in a database that can be checked against when issuing numbers to regular citizens.
- You wouldn't want such a database to exist.
- If you remove a whole "block," it's much simpler (do not assign passport numbers starting with...).
- Passports are NOT issued by the services themselves, and normal institutions (foreign office) only collaborate "covertly" — not everybody involved can be aware.
Fake passports that pass muster (regular patterns of a country's passport are known to foreign border guards, like checknums, typical issuance ranges, etc.) are not simple.
To me, the real question is why embed that information in the passport number at all? Even if driven by cryptography, it seems to represent a risk for which i don't understand the benefit.
Because why?
> - If you make those "random" - you need to store them in a database that can be checked against when issuing numbers to regular citizens.
You have to store passport numbers assignments in a database anyways.
> - You wouldn't want such a database to exist.
Because it could leak? But number block schemes leak.
> [...]
> Fake passports that pass muster (regular patterns of a country's passport are known to foreign border guards, like checknums, typical issuance ranges, etc.) are not simple.
If you want a fake/second passport to look like a real/first passport then you need to make sure that there's nothing fake-y about it, like none of this reserved number block thing. If the country in question assigns passport numbers sequentially, then that's going to be a problem because the passport numbers will indicate when the passport was issued -- you wouldn't want that. So instead you'll need to either randomize passport number generation, pseudo-randomize it, or leave lots of gaps in sequential number assignments so there are always a few from each relevant time period available.
Also, if you use the same number for national ID and passport, then you'll need to issue a second national ID to match the second passport.
These things are not hard to figure out. The U.S. would never get this wrong because the State department has enough clue and could always reach out to NSA/CIA for clue if they needed it. Apparently the Russians are total amateurs at this stuff.
no schengen exit stamp for EU citizens, that particular airline/route doesn't check for destination visa
I don't personally think this is top-tier spy stuff like this article is making it out to be, its spelled out for any 2nd passport collector on all those golden visa or perpetual traveller websites and literature
"Evidence" is such a strong word to use for what that investigation revealed, but I suppose it goes a long way of revealing the nature of articles like that
“ sophisticated tradecraft “ lol what?
It’s generally illegal in most countries to use another country’s passport within the country your passport is from. You can’t have a German and Argentinian passport and enter Germany with the German passport and leave with the Argentinian one. Nor can you leave Germany with just the Argentinian one. You can go to other Schengen countries, but you can't leave the Schengen region ("since is your entrance stamp?")
If you get caught without a passport, you get detained though. If you've forgotten your passport somewhere, someone else can take it to an airport (or a physical border) and the border control at the airport can then confirm your identity.
I‘m talking about temporary border controls that any country within the area may implement in certain circumstances according to the agreement. They are not the norm, Schengen is supposed to have only an external border.
Per the EU’s website, Romania and Bulgaria don’t check when flying between them.
https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/travel/entry-exit/eu-c...
https://travel.stackexchange.com/questions/122289/why-don-t-...
If someone overstays without a good reason then they are probably not entering the UK again for a long time.
The consequences are almost worse without the exit controls because overstayers will waste money on a flight only to get turned around at the border - assuming they don’t need a visa or ETA.
Exit checks are pretty pointless if there’s no violation that would lead to enforcement other than deportation (since the traveler is already self-deporting).
It’s so stupid it sounds like a policy some right wingers in my country might actually want to make reality.
When the 15 year old girl joined Isis, and then subsequently re-appeared in a refugee camp with a newborn, there was little desire to arrest her and figure out if she is guilty or a victim. We just took away her British passport and washed our hands of her. I thought the government would at least rescue the baby, but apparently nobody cared and it perished in the inhumane conditions of the refugee camp.
This is somewhat unique - for example Russia could come after you, or arrest you on entry, but they don't have this idea of exile as punishment.
As in, 'you have 2 days to GTFO, or we'll land you in prison for a few years to think of your actions'.
Happened many, many times since the start of this horrific war and many times before.
Source: I'm one of the lucky ones who managed to GTFO from Russia and find a job abroad.
Also, Russia is [contemplating](https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/04/25/russia-reportedl....) stopping issuing passports abroad - to try and catch the 'undesirables' again. Which would leave many people de-facto stateless. This is what Belarus did quite a while ago, by the way.
I'm actually pretty surprised that Russia didn't do it yet, as Belarus did a while ago.
The countries that fine people are usually (not always) more open to allowing them back in again.
I’m not aware of countries that imprison overstayers, although I’m sure there must be some. Detainment awaiting deportation yes, but usually if you show up at a border and try to leave after overstaying most countries will not interfere with your exit (with or without a fine).
The countries that fine people are usually (not always) more open to allowing them back in again.
I’m not aware of countries that imprison overstayers, although I’m sure there must be some. Detainment awaiting deportation yes, but usually if you show up at a border and try to leave after overstaying most countries will not interfere with your exit (with or without a fine).
However, you don’t have to be very smart and sophisticated to simply choose another route and use connection in Istanbul to avoid this check…
Who is "they"?
If "they" is the airline, then physically show them the Russian passport: they don't record this information, they only need to see it to confirm that they won't have to fly you back (for free?) to your departing location.
If border control (again: by flying), simply saying "my flight is to the UK" works.
Narva is a pedestrian and car crossing. EU has a border with Russia/Belarus.
> If border control (again: by flying), simply saying "my flight is to the UK" works.
FYI in many places (not everywhere, rarely in Europe) border control will look at your boarding pass too.
When travelling we can book with whatever passport, but we need to be more careful during immigration.
I feel that there was a huge loss of competence - our security services are far too busy chasing around lone terrorists with low-tech tools and no op-sec.
The military industrial complex is so deep in grift it can only produce enough weapons to fight third world countries with minimal losses
That's far from "sophisticated tradecaft" though. For instance a large % of Argentinians have double nationality (Myself included) and we do this all the time when travelling to Europe.
Computer systems of face recognition deployed everywhere would want to say something about that bright plan
It's not generally illegal. Some countries have that requirement but those are generally countries that are particularly strict (e.g. you mentioned Germany and Argentina but they're both countries famous for unusually strict nationality laws; Germany generally strips people of their nationality if they acquire a foreign nationality, Argentina on the other side makes it impossible to renounce your citizenship at all).
I don't even think it's based on any realistic concerns of nuclear or conventional escalation... incumbents just don't want to be the ones in power when war happens. I think many aggressors have learned to capitalize on this weakness.
Rolling over beacuse somebody is a nuclear power only seems to come up when Russia is in the chat. If China or Israel attacks someone, nobody says "we can't respond to it because it would start a nuclear war."
What is it about Russia that makes Russia so irresponsible? And if it is, isn't it time to completely eliminate all economic ties with Russia, and pressure every other country in the world to do the same, until Russia decides to be a responsible country with their nuclear weapons.
Doing low-stakes trial runs of its capability for sabotage in a future conflict.
The reason it can do this against NATO is because NATO has non-war means to tit-for-tat punish Russia for this sort of behaviour. Those means are called sanctions, and there could always be more of them.
NATO does not do much of the converse, because Russia has very few non-war ways to punish NATO. NATO would really not like Russia's tit-for-tat response, which is why it prefers to fight arms-length proxy wars, instead.
Except that they don't really work well against Russia, if you ask anyone in those small and formerly depressive Russian cities where property prices are currently rising. Parallel imports and proxy exports do magic, bureaucrats in the financial block of the government handle monetary policy extremely well, China is helpful and half of the world simply does not care or directly benefits from this war.
I thought that the crooks in charge were running it into the ground for the past ~33 years, I didn't realize that this was all it took to get them to start managing the country well.
> if you ask anyone in those small and formerly depressive Russian cities where property prices are currently rising.
Not sure which properties you're talking about, most of the Soviet construction in my home town is - quite literally - falling apart, with no motivation or economic capacity, or money to repair, rebuild, or replace any of it.
Sure, you can inflate property values to whatever amount you want, if you start printing money to finance a war, but that doesn't on its own result in economic prosperity. You actually need to make stuff, and Russian industry has lost the ability to do that decades ago.
You are completely misunderstanding modern Russian economy. The “Running into the ground” part ended 20 years ago. Organized crime was contained, necessary reforms were mostly done, entrepreneurial culture emerged, they started developing industrial policy and digitalization. Old Soviet industry and monocities around it were dying, true, but whole new sectors emerged and they are damn good. Banking and telecoms, hospitality, IT and e-commerce to name a few. Even industry is not completely dead, on the contrary: whole new automotive clusters have grown with increasing localization of components etc. One very good indicator of the shape of industry is the current output of military industrial complex: they scaled it incredibly fast and currently outperform the entire EU on a number of positions. This means that not just some factories are working but their entire supply chain is ok. This is the part of Russia that actually prospers and has been growing for a while now.
> Sure, you can inflate property values to whatever amount you want, if you start printing money to finance a war, but that doesn't on its own result in economic prosperity
The thing is, they don’t print money. Their head of central bank is one of the most competent professionals in Europe if not the entire world. What is happening now is redistribution: oil money going into the pockets of the poor people, a family member of which has signed the contract and went to war. No wonder the war feels “justified” for them: they have never seen this kind of money before and they spend it. Just for example take the small town Mtsensk. Since the start of the war property prices there increased by 50%. Old Soviet panel building is still a big upgrade for those who were used to go outside to the toilet. This is another part of Russia, forgotten and abandoned for a while, which won a lottery ticket while supplying the war with cannon fodder.
Both parts exist and when counted on average, negate each other. Omitting one of them is oversimplifying.
Note that there's a difference between talk and action. The West likes to talk about holding Russia accountable, and making a show of it with token sanctions. But when even those token sanctions are routinely skirted by Western companies operating through intermediaries in third countries while Western governments look the other way, Russia knows that all this talk doesn't matter and can be ignored.
It also doesn't help that talking about what needs to be done to be able to reliably push back - i.e. more defense spending, more investment into military infrastructure and manufacturing, helping your allies etc - gets politicians voted out of office in so many Western countries these days.
>What is it about Russia that makes Russia so irresponsible?
Consider the contents of the training sets. China hasn't "been" our "enemy" until relatively recently, it takes a while for "reality" to propagate to all nodes.
Actually, I (and most of the world) don't want to start a nuclear conflict with China or Israel either.
Its a difference in the character of the countries, and it implies that Russia is far more dangerous than China, and that there must be a vigorous international collaboration to contain Russia's apparent aggression.
The breakthrough in the investigation came only post 2018 as a result of Skripal poisonings where the same agents were involved. It took a while to connect the dots.
Seems like you agree the reason it was not published before 2021 was that there wasn't enough evidence collected yet.
Isn't that the most parsimonious explanation? Why do you feel the need to add this superfluous German angle / Russian resources unfounded speculation?
When living on this world, one must do a lot of “speculation”, to derive most probable explanations based on limited information available. I guess one could call it “personal opinion”, “informed opinion”, or even “expert oponion” depending on the context.
In this specific case, worth remembering, that speed of investigations depend on resources allocated to it; resource allocation is easily impacted by politics.
Here is an unrelated example, but it illustrates an attempt to appease Russia: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14202371 (there was European Arrest Warrant for ex-kgb guy over old eastern Europe stuff; in 2011 Austria detained him, but then swiftly released him within 24 hours)
Or when NATO members wanted to build Nord Stream despite protests from other NATO members.
Damn! You have evidence of that? That must be worth a fortune.
In politics, the truth isn't usually worth very much, and is second fiddle to the ends.
The proof, if any exists, is worse than worthless.
For a NATO ally to do it would be extremely risky -- what if the others hadn't kept quiet? (You can't always predict what your allies will do)
Say it is acknowledged as an attack on a NATO member, but nothing is done. That immediately turns NATO's worth from whatever its is worth now, to less than the paper it was printed on in 1999 when the Check Republic joined the organization.
That's the achilles heel of NATO, and the Russian government knows it. Same goes for Baltic countries and possibly Poland. Currently what is Americans' and West Europeans' appetite for starting WWIII over an arms warehouse, or a small village in Baltics? I want to believe they would step up, but I am not convinced. Those kind of attacks becomes very attractive for Putin: blow something up here, hack something there, assassinate this or that person, and then watch NATO do anything.
That's why the predictable response it so look away and pretend nobody saw anything.
And at each point NATO has to make a decision whether it's "worth it" to escalate into armed conflict over it, and Putin can just keep "bending the stick" until he finds where it's about to snap, and not push any further, while the stick gets a bit weaker and weaker...
I do think the Russians are vulnerable right now in the sense that if they provoked excessively in the fashion they were used to before the invasion of Ukraine, they could open the floodgates to more serious support for Ukraine.
When was Putin appeased?
One would have to reckon with all the wars and troubles that other great powers/superpowers make and how they are “appeased”, also. And that is awfully uncomfortable.
[1] Macron recently showed some surprising boldness, probably noticing Americans dragging their feet with the aid package and Germans being terribly indecisive as well. Not a bad political play.
North Korea regularly shells South Korea, sometimes killing South Korean civilians. It's absolutely a cause for war, and they might indeed be justified, in a sense, with breaking the ceasefire and marching on Pyongyang the next time NK does so. But they will have to live with the war that would cause.
Poisoning people in Britain was pretty obvious. But there have been so many others.
Similarly Russia launched a cruise missile back in 2023 that flied over half of Poland and crashed in forest near Bydgoszcz. Poland did not invoked article 5, even if it could be justified.
Reason is similar in both cases:
- war is a BIG DEAL, it would likely cause flight of foreign investment and other businesses
- if NATO helps it would be an easy win, but there would still be loses in the region
- it's possible many countries in NATO don't see that as a sufficient justification for the war, which might cause problems in NATO and reduce the security guarantees for when they are REALLY needed (i.e. if Russia invades somebody in region for real)
TL; DR: it's not worth it for the attacked country, even if Russia is long past the point of "deserving it"
Also because most of us aren't interested in nuclear war over anything less than an existential threat. And the odds of conventional war between nuclear powers escalating into nuclear war is too fucking high. You'll need a better reason than 'someone blew up a weapons stockpile' to risk that.
If you're not going to risk open war over a full invasion of Ukraine, we sure won't risk it over an arms depot.
De-escalation-by-default is a feature, not a bug in a world where the push of a button can kill a billion people (much to the chagrin of people who have never had war waged against them).
When it's time for war, the rulers will make up any kind of excuse, order the media to whip up the population to a war frenzy and mothers will cry tears of joy when their sons get sent away to die in agony in some forest or desert with their guts spilled all over the ground.
But if you think the honour of the Czech Republic or NATO needs to be restored, the question is what are you still doing in front of the computer?
> Wars are never waged as responses to attacks or insults, they are waged when the rulers have determined that they will be profitable
It is a meaningless truism that nations don’t start wars they don’t think they can or will win. No need to dress that up as any sort of profound insight.
In this case, the cost of ignoring Russia's attacks is far less than the cost of winning a war against Russia. If this relationship flips, then we might get war.
> In this scenario it is Russia that attached the Czech Republic.
It is the ruler(s) of Russia that has done that.
It's not "seen as an attack by Russia on NATO" because per the NATO treaty Russia nuking Washington DC won't be "seen as an attack" either, that is, until the country being attacked officially declares it as such through the mechanisms the treaty outlines.
The Czech republic hasn't invoked that mechanism, therefore it's a non-event as far as NATO's concerned. NATO doesn't have any mechanisms for pro-actively monitoring attacks on member states, outside of those states themselves.
* "Foreign agent" label in 2021. This means massive restrictions on income sources and a target of gradually increasing restrictions as years go by.
* "Undesirable organization" in 2022. Donating to such organizations is a criminal offense.
* Roman Dobrokhotov - the Insider founder - has been wanted in Russia since 2021.
Folks interested in spy-craft would love the classic Deception : The Invisible War Between the KGB and the CIA by Edward Jay Epstein. This book provides insight into how deception is at the root of all disinformation/misinformation/propaganda/etc. which can be extrapolated to what is happening today in the larger media industry - https://archive.org/details/Deception-TheInvisibleWarBetween...
So what's the working hypothesis these days, either American SIGINT works, or it doesn't? Update my priors in a moment... What is it, 50/50 either true or false? Well, you know what they say; the Americans truly are on the game!