The one that shocks me is that 300,000,000 Chinese retire in the next decade.
This is going to hurt. No way the fed can stop inflation with these demographic trends.
This is going to hurt. No way the fed can stop inflation with these demographic trends.
If you want to see a country that has been old before it truly became rich, just take a look at Thailand.
They are a large country with a below replacement TFR for decades, a high median age, and a relatively low median household income ($7k/yr) yet they have not collapsed.
Most of this is because of social welfare - most high revenue industries are very highly skilled and this require a small skilled or semi-skilled workforce.
Think industries like Automotive, Semiconductors, ONG Refining, Finance, etc - this is the Thai economy (tourism is actually a relatively small portion compared to those).
Deploying tax money generated from those industries into social welfare such as expanded healthcare, expanded social services, etc helps minimize a lot of the issues at hand.
China has been concentrating on building some form of a social safety net as well in a manner similar to TH, but it's at an earlier stage, but tbf, TH hit the same issues China did today in the early 2000s.
Also it has alot of other impacts such as bringing in foreign investment, new skills, and so on.
Whether those retirees can successfully return to some form of work will often hinge on their country's health care system - not for the retirees, but for the middle-aged generated that will become retirees. That is where the United States is already running into issues.
8 Grandparents, 4 parents to take care on 2 working adults + 1 or more childrens. UnSustainable
This is happening with the service sector in the United States right now where getting manual labor done on houses has increased nearly 50% in a few years due to the lower population of workers.
However that would mean less buying of government debt, less bank loans being issued, etc...