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Comment by dontreact | Hacker News Reader

The biggest reveal here is that they provide one of the clearest confirmations that Tesla has been lying about their crash statistics. Apparently they only log crashes with airbags and generally from police reports we know this is only 18% of crashes. They found and confirmed several instances of crashes that don’t show up in Teslas logs at all.

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The number one search result for "Autopilot" on HN is still this 2017 article claiming a 40% reduction in crash rate: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13437905 The subsequent revelations of the many flaws in this analysis never had one tenth the fanfare of course.

40% reduction in crash rate, not fatalities. It seems dubious that they could get fatality statistics wrong and get away with it. Creative statistics feels plausible with “crashes”.

Ah you're right, thanks. Edited my OP.

It does not sound accurate to me that only 18% of crashes appear in police reports?

I think he means 18% of crashes that the police report have an airbag deployment.

Yes thanks that is what I meant.

I don't know the percentage, but the majority of minor collisions never result in a police report. The parties involved just deal with their insurers. When a guy scratched my bumper at a stoplight I didn't waste time calling the police.

Wouldn’t that be absent from other car manufacturer’s data as well though?

Many minor crashes aren't in police reports at all. Either it involves only one party, or the police just straight up won't come out.

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