Large language models as research assistants
lemire.me
lemire.me
I've worked out why I don't get much value out of LLMs. The hardest and most time-consuming parts of my job involve distinguishing between ideas that are correct, and ideas that are plausible-sounding but wrong. Current AI is great at the latter type of ideas, and I don't need more of those.
[1]: https://bsky.app/profile/martin.kleppmann.com/post/3kquvol6s...
Warning: every time I have seen somebody write that, and seen an example of their writing, it's been fine to start with but the LLM has completely trashed it. See: https://meta.stackexchange.com/a/396009/308065
While GPT4 can recognize an innovative idea, I have yet to see it suggest such an idea, or successfully extrapolate or question the idea. If you are beyond the "concept space" of the model, it is not going to help you explore it.
When was the last time a researcher, economist, etc. was given 10,000 papers and simply told "do some original work"? That's not how it works. Daniel (the author) provides some good examples where _streamlined_ work can happen, but again, this is pretty basic stuff.
To push this further, though, imagine LLMs that fill in frameworks... A few steps here: (1) do a lit review, (2) fill in the framework, (3) discuss what might be missing, and maybe even try and fill in the missing information.
I'm doing something like this with politics and economics (see: https://emergingtrajectories.com/) and it works generally well. I think with a ton more engineering, curating of knowledge bases, etc., one can get these LLMs to actually find some new "nuggets" of information.
Admittedly, it's very hard, but I think there's something there.
1. Hallucinations
2. Prompt injections
Currently, there is no known way to detect either using LLMs themselves. As a research assistant, if the LLM hallucinates, and it always sounds extremely confident when it does so, the LLM itself is of little use and causes additional burden, defeating the whole point of this.
Maybe an external validation step that employs a pagerank like algorithm is needed to detect and flag hallucinations? If so, how valuable would that company be?
3. Steering them
The way prompting devolves into trial and error with little rhyme or reason can make it pretty frustrating to slot them into automation pipelines. It’s hard to foresee all the ways they can go off the rails or give strangely inconsistent results.
This is fine as long as there are humans trained in critical thinking skills (i.e., a liberal arts education) are monitoring every step in this loop ensuring that the scholarly output is of high quality. I am unfortunately not sanguine about this optimistic scenario.
> And this new technology should mediocre academics even less useful, relatively speaking. If artificial intelligence can write credible papers and grant applications, what is the worth of someone who can barely do these things?
Actually, I think the opposite of this is true where AI has the potential of leveling the playing field and increasing the productivity of less productive employees.
> Unsurprisingly, software and artificial intelligence can help academics, and maybe replace them in some cases.
I don't think so. Instead the individual components of academic workflows can potentially be accelerated by AI.
Inspired by a Wharton Business School study [0] I went down this road recently where I "primed" ChatGPT4 with an RFP (Request for Proposal from a US granting agency) and publicly available documents about the organization I work for. The ideas that it generated made sense, but were unfortunately way too generic to be useful. I am open to the idea that through better prompting, LLMs could be helpful here. As a first attempt in this arena, however, my initial results were disappointing.
[0] https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2023/new-working-pap...
For grant applications, I agree it's a great tool because they're rife with bureaucratic crap that nobody really needs to read or write. In time, again hopefully the system will be reformed to not waste time asking for stuff an LLM could generate.
But not as insulting as commenting on HN before even skimming the article you're commenting on. :)
I do care about what I'm saying. That's why I review the LLMs output and edit before sending. If an LLM can express what I meant to say better than I can, why would I not use it?
Personally, I don't do this because the LLM changes the style of my text too much and doesn't sound like me any more. But oh, I so do wish it could. Often I type a first draft of an email, and I know it needs (simple) editing. If an LLM could do it for me, I'd be very happy.
For research papers, writing the introduction is a large headache, and frankly, is often more of a ritual. It's the least important part of the paper. I mean, if all I had to do is describe the purpose of my paper, etc, that would be great. But a lot of referees want me to load it up with a lot more verbiage to satisfy dubious traditions.
Unfortunately, GPT can't do it for me. But it should.
Scientific research has come to resemble gambling more and more these days, where there is an extremely obsessive quest to accumulate more data, theories, and information, rather than trying to figure out improvements to life.
One big example from recent years is AlphaFold, which required massive computation resources, and has since its release been an ongoing fountain of innovation for biomedical (and particularly pharmacological) application.
[Citation Needed]
Last time I looked into it, as is often the case, the ‘actual’ results were much much more sobering than the headlines seemed to suggest.
As for actual applications, it's a bit early, but here's a relatively extensive review from 2023[2], and there's a particularly notable example showing progress on liver cancer [3]. Researchers are still figuring out how to utilize it, e.g. with search mechanisms like Foldseek[4], and I'm sure we'll see a lot over the coming years.
But you're definitely right it's not a silver bullet on its own, and there's still need for actual scientific research. On this note there's this interesting paper on the "illusion of understanding" we get from working with AI.
[0] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?linkname=pubmed_pubmed_cite...
[1] https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=6286436358625670901...
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-023-01381-z
[3] https://www.genengnews.com/insights/first-application-of-alp... (paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9906638/)
> quest to accumulate more data, theories, and information, rather than
You forgot “more money”.