I'm confused as to how we can tell.

Where do you see "the profile was created 2024-04-26"? Is the instagram linked on the profile also faked or is that the real guy?

How do we know it was deleted back in 2022? Because there's a single web archive snapshot where the page shows as "Not Found" in that year? That could happen for other reasons. The guy could also be re-instating his own substack.

I'm not doubting this but want to know how to detect it. If the instagram is the real guy someone should tell him lol.