The side effects of prohibitions are about as predictable as these moral crusades.
But I notice (maybe especially on this day of the TikTok ban) that lots of people at least sometimes sympathize with the idea that the governments have good reasons to restrict information. And not that many people anywhere have ever used censorship circumvention technologies.
So you might say "the more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers" or something, but the cultural will and momentum to work around Internet-balkanizing measures is ... not that massive and not that universal.
I don't mean to say that people working around geographic blocking doesn't happen ... it does to some noticeable extent at least for licensed streaming, for gambling, and for porn. But I guess significant majorities typically say "oh well!" and accept restrictions as the new normal.
Sometimes, we have to remind ourselves that our government is not the bad guy. The bad guys are the bad guys; and those bad guys aren't often bad to their own kind.
(You might still be right, I just don't think it's "pretty obvious".)
This should not be a surprise, but you folks are idiots who think only The Big Bad United States are (somehow) the only ones interested in spying.
I'd posit that indoor smoking bans wouldn't have been effective whatsoever if they were implemented in the 1970's rather than the 2000s, just for the simple fact that 40% of the population were smokers compared to around 20% when those bans came into effect. Additionally, the impact to smokers was that you needed to go outside to smoke, which is a pretty reasonable behavioral modification.
There's probably some really solid sociology based studies around where this prohibition effectiveness essentially falls apart.
Citation needed.
Most Japanese illustrators do not care about the US/EU, and many of them even hate gaijins. If you haven't noticed, anti-Americanism is very strong on the Japanese internet.
But sure, if you want examples of this trend try searching Pixiv by title for stuff like "twitterまとめ" [1], " or "Xまとめ" [2], meaning a usually monthly compilation of illustrations that were posted to Twitter first. And that doesn't even get into the artists that stopped using Pixiv completely because they got bored of it or their account was banned.
[1] https://www.pixiv.net/en/tags/twitterまとめ/artworks?mode=safe&... (apparently these links don't capture the fact that it's a title search and not a tag search, you have to be logged in and set it manually)
[2] https://www.pixiv.net/en/tags/Xまとめ/artworks?mode=safe&s_mode...
By "anti-Americanism", I'm insisting that a good number of Japanese anime artists see the ban as a beneficial feature, not a disadvantage. They would see this as an automated "Sorry, Japanese Only" filter.
They're very likely perfectly fine with Americans and foreigners in general seeing and sharing work without trying to change the culture of the site (which is fair and something more communities need to start expecting, there's an increasingly popular idea that various hobbies have been ruined by uninvested "tourists" that come into the community, force it to change to accomodate them, then leave after the original audience has been alienated).
The social divide is getting really worrying these days.
Compared to what? Line, or do you have something else in mind?
Besides, LINE is extremely unpopular among otaku in Japan (yes, racism).
In the recent happenings I saw plenty of illustrators get bounced back to X by moderators of fledgling platforms.