Popular opinion seems to be that doubling down on self driving will not "rescue" the stock because self driving cars are 5 to 10 years away.
To me, that seems not that far away. At current interest rates of 5%, that means the robotaxi business would be devalued by 28% if it manifests in 5 years and by 63% if it manifests in 10 years.
Given the size of the opportunity (2 billion cars on the road, so about 700 billion yearly manhours that can be automated), a devaluation of 28% or 63% seems to be not too much to make it unreasonable as an investment.
One robotaxi would add something like $5k per year to the bottom line. So every million robotaxis would add $5B. Give that a p/e ratio of 30, and it increases Tesla's market cap by $150B.
Can Tesla bring one million robotaxis to the market by 2029? Assuming the numbers above, that would increase their market cap by $150B. Or in today's dollars by $100B. Even if they never get beyond 1 million robotaxis.
If one assumes that from 2029 on, they add one million of these every year, today's value of that future business probably exceeds all of the current Tesla market cap.