Carl Sagan, nuking the moon, and not nuking the moon
eukaryotewritesblog.com
eukaryotewritesblog.com
There was someone who wanted to go a bit farther than just a bomb or two [1]. He wanted to completely destroy the moon.
That made me laugh.
I wonder if this is where Neal Stephenson got the idea for Seveneves which has the opening line
"The moon blew up with no warning and with no apparent reason."
(it's not important to the story)
For a man who gained infamy for wanting to blow up the moon, his publications are on relatively boring topics in advanced math.
As it's currently structured there are three objections.
1. We couldn't do it.
2. It would have disastrous side effects.
3. It wouldn't fix the problem you're trying to solve, and it would in fact make it worse.
Objections 2&3 should be swapped, "all life on Earth would be vaporized" should really be issue #3.> And if it helps, he made it Over fifty years later and nobody thinks about nuking the moon very often anymore. Good job, Sagan.
Mission failed, I am now thinking about nuking. A lot. Makes me wish I was a senior DoE officer in the 50s when you could nuke stuff to see what happened when stuff got nuked.
That's 33.33 quadrillion GWh. Or about two trillion times the annual energy consumption of Earth.
If we somehow harnessed windfall energy on that scale, hmmm what to do, what to do... let's blow up the moon!
There is no way to store or transport the energy though, it corresponds to hundreds of millions of tons of mass fused every second. Instead you would have to somehow beam or guide the full power of the sun towards the moon for several minutes. Pretty cool light show, for those who dare to look up... but don't miss!
So what you're saying is... we need to build a Death Star.
Smith was the "trope-maker" for much of modern space-opera & SF. And as his stories went on, the scope of combat and forces involved just kept getting bigger. The Death Star is barely a capital ship by the standards of later Lensmen books, where a task force will regularly involve hundreds of immense ships, plantary masses worth of antimatter, and squadrons of armed and mobile planets. ("Starkiller Base" eat your heart out.) By the very end, exotic-matter planets were being used as ammunition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime
Radiation and high energy particles left in orbit destroyed one third of all satellites at the time after the next few months as they passed through that cloud.
DOH
Now, seriously. While the first two parts are great, the third is awful. You can actually skip the part 3, it is completely superfluous (and again, dumb), the story works without it better.
Anathem is for me his only well-rounded book where he delivers on all fronts.
That's IMHO Stephenson at his best.
> It was a relief to see how the humanity was able to survive and adapt.
Could be, but the execution of that was very lacking. The story arc, characters just don't cut it. Additionally, I was particularly disappointed at the genetic determinism, which Stephenson surely knows is extremely dubious. I suspect that the only reason he wrote / included this part into the book is the allegory of the seven Eves.
I wouldn't call myself a slow reader, but I just don't have the time to sit and read paper books very often. Instead I listen to audio books while driving, doing chores, etc.
I have a family member who is a slow reader, but thanks to audiobooks, finishes over a hundred books a year.
It's also easy to forget the brown-dwarf-hot body inside the Moon (and the star-hot one beneath our feet). Thanks to the rock insulators between us and them, and our universal heat sink. A disassembled Moon exposing mantle material... even with T^4 blackbody energy scaling, a bolide rain a year later very won't be a problem for humans. Comparing lunar mantle with Sun, say 6x cooler, 390x closer, and say <10x angular smaller - 390^2 beats 6^4, leaving what, a new 100x "Sun"?
The ChatGPT looks surprisingly ok. It struggled where textbooks and such are less than wonderful. So it raises the irrelevant Sun's core, and says "The Sun's energy output is vastly greater due to nuclear fusion reactions, emitting a massive amount of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. The Moon, lacking such reactions, emits no comparable energy.", perhaps reflecting the textbook "Sun shines because fusion" vs "Sun glows because hot, and hot things glow (with color and intensity proportional to temperature^4), and fusion is why it's still hot billions of years after forming". Though in a way it's true - "The Moon lacking such reactions, and being small, has cooled off and greatly dimmed since its last big formation impact". :)
The "Brown dwarfs typically range between about 1,000 and 2,500 degrees Celsius at their surface, far hotter than the Moon's mantle." seems inconsistent with [1].
Thanks for the check!
[1] graph: https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image... source: Fig 2 on page 9 of https://hal.science/hal-02863845/document [PDF]
It wouldn't make the classic mushroom cloud - it would be a spectacular sphere of luminescence; and by far the most powerful display of power to had ever been accomplished by man.
In fact, von Neumann, citing his infamous Chaos Theory, wanted to preemptively strike the USSR.
It's the stuff we didn't do we don't want to come to light the most.
Blowing up the Moon would still be a very compelling scientific experiment. I can't think of a cheaper or easier way to get spectroscopy of a sample from below the surface. And aside from the fallout (literal and political) there's not much downside.
Wikipedia has an article about the proposal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_A119
That makes it sound like one of the reasons for cancelling it would have been that it really wouldn't have been that impressive.
[Edit: Or, wait: a mushroom cloud depends on atmosphere, doesn't it? So... What would a blast-created cloud of dust look like in a vacuum? Just a cloud? Yeah, not so impressive a visual.]
As I understand it, the remaining Apollo samples are basically considered contaminated by earth now.
That's the most likely answer to the question, 'where are all the aliens?'
Nuclear energy is a popular crux, but not needed per se.
a). the one civilization we know of didn't do it yet and
b). doesn't this require something inherent to life for this to explain the fermi paradox? it seems like this just moves the question from "where are all the aliens" to "why does every civilization regardless of environment/planet/etc. ALWAYS destroy themselves" which doesn't seem like an easier question to answer?
Now, total extinction of a civilization meaning all of a civilized species, maybe we saw that with neanderthals and other early hominids.
By being just lucky in many times. I imagine a scenario where one mistake happened and people took the wrong decision in one moment. It is not like if you repeated the cold war 1000 times you will end up fine in most of them. Lets remember that submarine in Cuban crisis, if this Soviet officer did not give his authentication we wouldn't get into that point. If you repeat the scenario with 1000 officers from this era, I wouldn't like our chances.
Equally climate change is very unlikely to extinct all humans and dont even get me started on all the other "extinction risks" such as rogue AI or bioweapon because they are merely sci-fi and again would almost certainly not get everyone.
We definitely dont have a convincing solution to the fermi paradox and if we did it would certainly not be so trite and silly of an idea as "technology kills"
I would wager that there is a different type of technological path requiring less fossil fuels and less surface metals. I dont have any data to support this belief obviously but I do believe that given enough time a human society could develop technology to enable space colonization without the jumpstart of an industrial revolution. This would look like slow generational iteration as opposed to explosive revolution and therefore would be more sustainable IMO.
This is why I propose long term technological advancement without a second industrial revolution.
Coal liquefaction would probably be superior to biofuels, as it seems we will give up using it before it is depleted.
Nobody does it because it's uneconomical as long as oil is cheap.
Climate change will ruin food production, not global fertilizer shortages.
Once we mine out all easily accessible fossil fuels, we'll cross a certain point of no return. After that point, a 19th century type industrial revolution will no longer be (easily) possible. Let's say a truly cataclysmic war happens and we just lose access to modern technology. Would we be able to regain it at some point? Could we rebuild a modern civilization without having access to the most energy dense and convenient fuel known to us even today?
Sure, we wouldn't go extinct, but if we are no longer able to travel beyond our own planet, we may as well have filtered ourselves out from the galactic stage.
Even then, the question would be "Should we?". If our current society ends by violently destroying virtually all life on the planet it will have been the biggest failure of a culture in history by a huge margin. Any survivors might very well develop some incredibly strong prohibitions against unchecked technological change.
Heres some good reading on post collapse society and extinction talked about more in depth. Long story short theres been lots of exaggeration and fear mongering about nuclear war. Clearly its apocalyptic and we dont need to exaggerate anything about it to make it scary. Its already scary. It would be better to have realistic conversations about this.
https://web.archive.org/web/20221016195507/https://forum.eff...
It’s very possible that the technology required to travel between solar systems is where the filter occurs and we’re in a narrow window of having enough technology to look around at nearby planets before we wipe ourselves out.
Why would we not expect the apex species on other planets to likewise dominate their ecosystems?
No. That's trite and silly. There's a much, much more likely answer to the Fermi Paradox -- so likely it's obvious. So obvious it's boring. So boring that everyone ignores it. I don't understand why. It's so blaringly obvious that the answer to the Fermi Paradox is:
Intelligent life is unbelievably, inconceivably, staggeringly unlikely. Quadrillions of universes lived and died without any life emerging -- at least any that could create a civilization. It has literally never, ever happened before, because the odds of it happening are one in 10^billions. It's nearly completely impossible. Which is why uncountable eternities with uncountable cycles of uncountable universes have passed with no life ever emerging ... except, except just this once.
Just this once, it happened. And what are the odds that, given life occurred on one planet, that it would be on that planet that its lifeforms looked around and asked "what are the odds of life? Shouldn't life be everywhere? It's everywhere on this planet!" What are the odds that it would be us lifeforms that life happened to? Well, 100%. So it looks easy. But it's not.
See? Boring. Life is staggeringly close to impossible. It will take another 10^10000000 universes being born and dying before it ever happens again. There is absolutely nowhere else in our entire universe, as big as it is, where intelligent life happened.
But you'll continue to ignore that answer, because deep scary biblical lessons about how the AI plague is consuming the universe and the Mass Effect reapers are going to come one day because we're making noise in the Dark Forest ... well, those just make better Sci-Fi books.
And yet if you shuffle a deck of cards, that particular order of cards will never again be seen in the universe, or hundreds of other universes full of card-shufflers. It is staggeringly close to impossible that you could have possibly gotten that order of cards. Are you really so sure that life didn't require more particulars to be exactly right than one specific order of a 52-card deck? It's so blindingly obvious that everyone just refuses to see it.
You are not the only person to ever think that life might be super rare in the universe. This is not a unique or even a rare opinion. People can speculate on other reasons for its rarity while still knowing it's likely to just be a naturally rare event. And there's no way you (you personally, and I guess humanity as a whole) can know it's as rare as 1 in 10^1000000 universes either, so your hypothesis is as evidence free as other hypotheses.
Our own society has created a number of serious risks for ourselves that our evolved minds aren't great at mitigating in just the last century. Now think about how tech is accelerating and what might be developed in the next 1000 years. We're either going to figure out a new structure for managing existential risks or die trying.
Classic.
Not only would nuking the Moon teach it a lesson, it might also keep it in our orbit. All we have to do is nuke the far side of it enough times to stop the outward movement. If we do it too much, it's an easy fix-- just nuke the near side.
Anyone who opposes this idea is for a moonless Earth, and all the chaos that would bring. I call them anti-tiders. They're the most despicable people on the planet.