The CEO of NVIDIA was pretty clear: Nvidia's focus is now on selling Blackwell AI Factories. According to some napkin math, each of these Blackwell AI factories will have an annual power bill of roughly $8,000,000 USD and if you do a little apples to oranges comparison will outperform the computer that's currently #1 on the supercomputing top 500 (Frontier at Oak Ridge) by one to two orders of magnitude.
for comparison, over the past fifteen years, we've seen 3 orders of magnitude improvement in the supercomputing top 500. (from roadrunner in 2008 to frontier in 2024). Nvidia is going to do 1 to 2 orders of magnitude improvement instantaneously.
Nvidia's core market has shifted dramatically. There is no competition.
By my count, 49 corporate logos were shown as launch partners.
At one point in the talk the CEO claims that “Blackwell will be Nvidia’s most successful product ever”.
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And again, the product he’s talking about is a data centers packed with 56 racks…
In the keynote Nvidia is quoting FP4 performance for Blackwell specifically. Frontier and every computer that has ever hit the supercomputer top 500 is measuring fp64. This is why I qualified my statement above by saying if you’re willing to compare apples and oranges.
But I think this is where things open up to debate (and/or personal interpretation). My view is, if all you care about is AI workload (Specifically LLMs), then you really are seeing a full two orders of magnitude improvement. And if we are trying to get a feel for the space, and what that even means, then there really is nothing else to compare Blackwell to other than frontier, in terms of scale alone.
Above I say “one or two orders of magnitude”, the “one order of magnitude” is a value I got by taking Blackwell’s FP4 values and dividing by 16, to try to conceptually convert back to a value that can be compared to fp64. — I’m perfectly happy to admit that all I’m really capable of doing here is using estimates to compare a completely new thing (the new compute architecture of Blackwell) to what came before it (the majority of the history of the supercomputing 500). But that’s okay, because that’s my only goal.
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Believe me, I get it. Blackwell will never post a linpack score. Blackwell will never run big scientific computing jobs like… global weather simulations.
But as computer science nerds, how could we not be excited to see such a big move: changing the computer architecture to better suit a specific compute workload (LLMs)?
I know Bitcoin has its asic processors, but to me Blackwell’s mission statement of “computing intelligence” is a lot more interesting.
Is it inevitable? I think so. Before 2019 there wasn't an opportunity, now there is.
For software, Chinese universities, Alibaba, Tencent and Bytedace are already releasing models, training code and in rare cases datasets that are competitive with private offerings. CogVLM/CogAgent is one that I use. It's very promising.
But, anyway, we will prohibited from buying it, probably. We still can't buy Cuban cigars.
C'mon, do something...
Wow and I thought that the latest generation of GPUs was better.
With the state of OpenCL it's frustrating. So much to be had, but so little improvement and support.
Frustrating is a good way to put it, but there's a certain causal satisfaction I feel from watching it all unfold. Of course everyone loses to CUDA when they refuse to sponsor an Open Source alternative. It's fascinating to me that hardware manufacturers would rather let CUDA dominate than establish a basic working relationship.