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And the bay area apartment would cost $8k/MO for a 3br/2 bath to raise a single kid in.

Yes, it does.

You are likely not going to be renting an apartment with that kind of money, you are just making your landlord rich.

Instead, you put a 200k deposit, pay the same 8k per month as mortgage (approx 1/3rd of your salary is the rule of thumb), and sell the house or apartment after a while. That way, you are not losing any money.

Check https://www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/mortgage-calculator for confirming these numbers.

… unless the price of properties goes … down

If it goes to zero, it is almost equivalent to have payed rent for 30 years! ;)

If it becomes half, you still have a home to live in rent free.

More likely it doubles every 10-15 years.

The bay area is expensive, but not that expensive. 4-6k/mo in rent will get you a 3-4br in all but the most expensive neighborhoods. You could also rent a house for that much in many nice bay area suburbs.

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