Came here to say this. Thought I missed something!
400B does look set to meet GPT-4, which will be exciting, but it's not finished yet.
400B does look set to meet GPT-4, which will be exciting, but it's not finished yet.
To me, it looks like OpenAI is ahead of the competition by 12-18 months, which isn't nothing but the competition is certainly nipping at their heels.
I guess it isn't unthinkable that GPT5 is more than a year out given the gap between GPT3 and GPT4 was 3 years. At the same time, the rumourmongers at businessinsider said their sources are expecting a Summer release, which seems plausible. Nobody really knows when it will release besides Sam Altman though.
The day after some model truly beats GPT-4, plus or minus 1-2 weeks, is my guess.
For the open weight/source community I'd put it at 3-6 months behind and catching up. Llama 3 405B might catch the community up unless OpenAI has another LLM up their sleeve that makes a significant jump forward, but we haven't seen evidence of that yet.
GPT5 might not be the thing we are all assuming it would be. It might not just be a chatbot but an actual AI that can "see" and "talk". By that point, I don't care if performance wise it isn't a big improvement over GPT4 (though it should as we know these models improve significantly when trained with another modal of data, e.g. text+image was much better than text only)