The last 200 years of automation being followed by new jobs is slightly stronger evidence that further automation will lead to new jobs, but I don't see any way that could remain true once AI is actually human performance when on hardware that runs under some appropriate electrical power threshold. Induction and Turkeys.
The real problem is when others follow Amazon in scale, leaving humans to survive in a new order.
No, the problem is if humans in the set of those who have to work are able to keep ahead of the creation of new automation.
UBI short-circuits the problem because then nobody would need to work. "Who pays for UBI?" you may well ask… well, Amazon can't ship anything when nobody has any money to buy stuff with.
Separately from that, AI currently needs a lot of examples to learn from, relative to humans, so "business as usual" with no further AI breakthroughs will mean lots of people shifting employment every few years. That scenario doesn't force the world economy to choose between UBI and collapsing due to all the jobs being automated and therefore nobody having any money to buy the products made or delivered by the automation.
monitary and fiscal policies will keep employment high regardless of AI and robotics.
are you saying that interest rates are not being lowered to allow kapital. investment for job creation?
(The closest historical examples to this description are feudal serfs and slaves, the latter is a much broader category than just the USA's example, and these are also bad examples from which to imagine the future for a variety of different reasons).
The early usage of the term "singularity" with regards to computers and automation was about the unpredictability of the future; even now, I cannot say with any confidence if we'll get a future more like that of The Terminator or more like that of The Culture, let alone smaller-scale and less dramatic dystopias and utopias.