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Comment by maxerickson | Hacker News Reader

Why do they have a bleak outlook?

The broader economy is strong, and their long term employment prospects are excellent, with many people leaving the workforce and productivity gains increasing overall wealth.

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The negative economic sentiment is very common and IMO entirely manufactured because it sells. Actual economic data is excellent. It kinda makes Haidt's point. Traditional media clearly isn't helping either though.

I can see being concerned about the spiraling cost of housing, but that's a problem with a relatively straightforward solution.

Housing is definitely an issue. The obvious solution to that are probably my biggest policy issue. That said, homeownership rates in the US are close to an all-time high.

And it's a problem that predominates literally every other aspect of one's life, and one's children's lives. Discussing it as though it's just one little exception is not just out of touch; it's practically insanity.

GDP is not a meaningful measurement unless you somehow believe in nonsense trickle-down economics of the most extreme degree.

But inflation-adjusted median & 10th percentile wages have grown L20yrs, (per my other comment in the thread), right?

Sounds meaningful for the 10th percentile, but what about everybody else? I assume this is supposed to be a joke?

Can you provide a single metric that's bad right now? Employment is close to a record high, PPP median income is up. Housing cost isn't great, but homeownership rates are still as high as ever. It's mostly vibes that are down.

Edit: the parent also called out median comp being up. Again, the persistence of the negative vibes without any actual data reinforces how the media now negatively impacts everyone's attitudes and ultimately mental health

It does seem that US COLA-wages are growing more slowly than Europe (though better than Canada), while our stock market outperforms. So one could make a claim that more profits should go to labor, rather than capital.

Some numbers (all the usual "mean-vs-median" caveats apply, though IME it rarely changes much):

France mean wages (2001-2022): 41706/26275 = 1.59 (2.2%/yr)

France CPI (2001-2022): 108.74/80.39 = 1.35 (1.4%/yr)

GB mean weekly wages (2001-2022): 599/321 = 1.87 (3.0%/yr!)

GB CPI: 114.6/73.5 (2001-2022): = 1.56 (2.14%/yr)

Canada mean wages (2001-2022): 14,176.4/10,405.1 = 1.36 (1.5%/yr)

Canada CPI (2001-2022): 146.3/96.8 = 1.51 (2.0%/yr)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/time...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/416204/average-annual-wa...

Things are still getting better though. One can be jealous that too little gets shared, but it's looking up for everyone. This is great!

How much do you expect to trickle down? Everyone with a retirement account benefits. How is that nonsense?

Some is expected to trickle. But denying trickle down economics means denying that helping the rich is an effective way to help the poor.

What do you mean by helping the rich?

Well, less than half of American households have money in their retirement account. And even for people with significant funds in their retirement accounts, that money will not be readily accessible (without penalty) for, on average, two decades or more.

You can withdraw from a Roth IRA penalty-free after holding for 5 years.

My guess: Negativity makes great clickbait & political propaganda.

I agree the numbers look great -- Added stats in a sibling comment above.

Something like 30% of 30-year-olds still live with their parents. Almost 40% of American adults cannot afford a $400 emergency expense. People are suffering and you're indifferent because you exist in a different class.

Appreciate the reply. For the curious, here's a source for the emergency expenses number (32% can't afford a $500 expense with their savings per Table 12): https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-we...

Notice that really only 13% of households can’t absolutely afford a $400 dollar expense, and the difference between the 32% for $500 vs the 40% for $400

> Sixty-eight percent of adults said they could pay an expense of at least $500 using only their current savings (table 12). This is a somewhat larger share than the 63 percent of adults who said they would pay an unexpected $400 expense with cash or the equivalent, suggesting that some people do choose to pay with other methods, even if they have cash savings available to them.

I'm not clear on how you're linking the stats (which are, BTW, off by about 20%) you just posted to the state of the economy. Can you clarify?

40% of people not saving $400 doesn't mean the economy is bad. It could mean they don't know how to save the money they're earning. Perhaps something else is wrong.

> One-in-three U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents’ home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data from 2021.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/03/in-the-u-...

> Nearly 4 in 10 Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense

https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-fi...

> What a $400 emergency expense tells us about the economy

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2021/what-a-400-dolla...

And the master of them all:

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

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