Unpopular opinion backed up by experience: a randomwalk is the most effective model for generating timeseries that have the "feel" of real stock charts.
Unpopular opinion backed up by experience: a randomwalk is the most effective model for generating timeseries that have the "feel" of real stock charts.
That's not an unpopular opinion. The BSM model is based on the assumption that stock prices are stochastic i.e. random walks. Monte Carlo simulations and binomial trees are the two common methods of deriving a solution to the BSM model.
1) There are more jumps down than up. (Maybe not in Pharma, but in general). If there's a gap up, chances are it's on earnings day.
2) Upward movements tend to be accompanied by lower volatility, and downwards by higher.
3) There's a lot of nothing-happened days, and a lot more large jumps than you'd expect in a random walk.
I've also spent a bunch of time generating random walks, and it's true that some look realistic, but they often fall into this trap that stock returns are not normally distributed.
I also wrote a number of random trading backtests, and it's frightening how few times you need to click the "recalculate" button to get a thing that looks like a money printing machine.
Your take conflicts with my toy hypothesis, and I wouldn't mind being proven wrong if it saves me time and effort.
I wonder if the folks who were fooled by your screens were fooled by the random data itself, or the fact that it was presented within all the familiar chrome and doodads that people associate with stock price visualization.
Or two series that are dependent, but individually look like random walks.