Why a $100k income no longer buys the American Dream in most places
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
That's putting it mildly. I lived better 15 years ago making $40k less than I do now. Price increases for consumer goods, energy, food, and property taxes in the last four years have been especially brutal!
Even in the '80s they knew this current world would be the outcome. This isn't a surprise to the Fed or the Reaganites.
Now many argue "well raises should be higher than inflation" but data continues to show that this isn't the case, as mentioned in the top of the article, for the last 50 years or so, raises have not kept pace with real cost of living increases. I have seen an argument that raises have evened out somewhat to beat the official inflation rate, but this is dubious, because the reported government inflation rate has exclusions to its calculation and doesn't capture the real cost of living increases faced across the US, due to inflation rate calculation exclusions and approaches.
I've long argued we need some kind of deflation in real costs, what that would look like is hard for me to say. I know its complicated, however I think a good place to start is perhaps returning to pre Reagan era economic 'reforms' is a good first step, as I've seen mentioned elsewhere (on HN or otherwise), as so called 'Reaganomics' hasn't really panned out for the average American over the long term.
The admonition from the Reagan administration on economics was fairly simple: Lower the rates, broaden the base. We've not been doing that for a long time.
You're welcome to check an alternate metric (eg Truflation), but they're all quite similar to CPI.
You are welcome.
Any why would GGP mention food, cars, and energy? They are directly included in the CPI. I think it's more likely that GGP is under the false impression that these items are excluded from the CPI -- It's a conspiracy theory originating from economists' practice of using "CPI Excluding Food, Shelter, Energy, and Used Cars and Trucks" as a lower-variance estimate of the future inflation rate.
> You are welcome.
Skip the snark, it's against HN guidelines.
Not sure about 50 years, but from 2001-2020 (period where data is most easily available for me) things seem fine?
CPI: 175.1->257.971 (2.1%/yr)
Median wage: $27060 -> $46310 (2.9%/yr)
Mean wage: $34020 -> $61900 (3.2%/yr)
Bottom 10% wage: $18140 -> $27340 (2.2%/yr)
Rent burden (median_wage / median_rent): 25% -> 28% (and it's now back down to 27%)
[1] https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?bls [2] eg https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=median+US+wage+2022
I am wondering if it is low because people simply downsizing..
I didn't say I think this happened, I just gave example with "if", in reality change may be not as extreme, but even say 20% change on average meaning that certain slice of population was downsizing because was affected dramatically.
I think these stats are not even and can be heavily sliced by region/social slice, e.g. in silicon valley rent definitely raised 2-3 times in last 15 years, but blue color workers didn't receive equal raise in wages.
Source? In the last 15 years, SF median rent went up 78% and SF minimum wage went up 93% [1] [2], so it seems quite likely blue color wages outpaced inflation.
I notice a worrying trend where people invent negative economic stats instead of looking at the real numbers [3].
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA422SEHA
[2] https://www.sf.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/Historical%20...
> SF median rent
your graph shows not SF (which is actually not silicon valley) but SF-Oakland metropolitan area. SF rent likely raised more than that.
> SF minimum wage went up 93%
Min wage is an outlier, they couldn't afford rent then and now.
Another factor is taxes, while wages increased, wages after taxes increased slower, because pushed income to another bracket.
Adjusted for inflation that would be $820 Billion/year today.
Actual spending today is $6,180 Billion/year, a ~7.5x multiplier above inflation.
Your income is being stolen through taxes and spent at an alarming rate.
https://www.salon.com/2011/02/08/lind_reaganism_carter/
Nixon was our last New Deal President.
https://isi.org/modern-age/richard-nixon-new-deal-nationalis...
Silly as it may seem, you probably want a more Nixonian world.
Presidents after Reagan started to pillage the lower and middle class for more tax revenue. Notably George H.W. [1]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omnibus_Budget_Reconciliation_...
The wealthy certainly did get great gains out of it, but it was at the expense of the non-wealthy because the tax cut they received was tiny and didn't offset the increased expenses.
This is just not true
Not saying 3.72 is great, of course, but it's more accurate in terms of actual impact on people.
But I don't think the expenditure increase supports the argument that people's income is being stolen. Whether or not you consider taxation as theft is an ideological stance.
https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-insights/whole-ball-...
It's time to cut down real estate investors by restricting ownership to real people and heavily taxing multiple property ownership.
Yes, building more helps but until the landed gentry is removed as a demand pressure then affordability will not get better.
What I’ve seen lately is mega apartment complexes being built and funded by private equity. That’s not good either. Things will end up like Europe where no one owns their flat they just rent in perpetuity.
Taxing short term rentals, OTOH...
A small leach is the same as a big leach.
Which would harm the development of multi-family housing and increase the cost of living. Remember that "real workers" do not build and own 100+-unit dwellings
Doubly so once you've forced the sale of multi unit owners, now you have a gkut of available properties on the market and reduced demand which lowers the price.
The fact that this farce keeps getting perpetuated is why the problem will never go away.
Yikes! You are really out of touch and clearly are not thinking in good faith. I hope you feel better soon
A house wouldn't be at these incredible prices of $500,000 or $1 million if there were more of them available (supply/demand), real estate investing would in general be less incentivized, where today it's a major channel for loans and investment.
It's fine that it is - of course investors should be able to trade housing and properties like anything else - but it's wrong and cruel to stop building them, as the population continues to increase. They're making people homeless so a much smaller group can make millions of dollars off the scarcity.
It's not a great future if the average person can't afford to own a shelter, and if the price to rent one continues to be thousands of dollars every 30 days in relation to these wages - nobody can realistically pull away when the house price and the rent rate both are rising so fast. My Sacramento midtown apartment in 2010 was $660/mo, my first place in SF was $900/mo the next year. The same places are both over $3k/mo now, yet I made less money in 2023 than I did back in 2010, doing the same job and working more hours.
Meanwhile those who inherited a house for free, or bought it for a lot less money than they cost today can make hundreds of thousands from refinancing (doing nothing) or millions from selling it. That so-called value was created out of intentional scarcity and nothing else - out of depriving other people of homes.
Even the average homeowner can make out like a rockstar investor year-after-year without even having to try because houses are just increasing in value as supply diminishes, there's a problem - it's a real estate bubble that will burst the moment people start building houses and neighborhoods again.
I agree we have to cut down real estate investors, I just think you can solve it in a productive way rather than battling them in politics.
Here where I live, in Norway, $100k is more than enough to live very comfortably almost anywhere in the country. Only exceptions would be certain expensive parts of Oslo, and some other high-income areas/towns around Oslo.
And if you're two people earning that kind of money? Early retirement would be a viable option in as little as 10-15 years, if you have a sober lifestyle.
But, then again, I have friends and ex-colleagues that live in the US - and I'm not talking about expensive places like NYC, SF, etc. - bur rather medium sized cities in flyover country, and even there people are paying rents (or purchasing homes) that feel pretty stiff to me.
The article uses a wild definition of "American Dream" where 50% of income has to be able to be spent on non-essential things. I really don't think most people will actually spend like that.
[1] https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/newyorkcitynewy...
Yes, apparently 40% of single people have roommates in NYC
Keep in mind that having a "roommate" is common everywhere in the US- 50% of households are romantic partners, with most of those households having 2 incomes. You have to keep that in mind when looking at living expenses everywhere.
You are not selling this dream very well. Maybe you're just young/inexpereinced, but this sounds like a dystopian nightmare to most people. You want families just rooming together because they cant afford the ever dwindling supply of housing - something civilization has known how to build for thousands of years?
Our asset owning class won't allow the building of houses and neighborhoods anymore (and all the land is owned so don't even try, anywhere), so that's the problem - artificial scarcity and inflation. Your room mate idea is an absurd remedy when such an obvious solution exists that would make everyone happier: Let people own their own shelter ffs.
page 18 shows rent types https://www.nyc.gov/assets/hpd/downloads/pdfs/services/2021-...
The next recession - without adequate drop in prices - is literally going to create third-world-esque homelessness in vast majority of the country.