Please link to all these quality Github alternatives? I haven't seen anything which comes close.
Having said that, switching costs are low because of the distributed nature of Git. Not sure what would happen if something genuinely better came along.
If something genuinely better comes along, the network effects would still be a huge source of inertia given the FUD around switching.
switching costs are low because of the distributed
nature of Git
Lock-in is not measured only in regards to the potential switching costs. Lock-in is also possible by providing the best possible service. Along with real network effects (people recommending your service to other people) then the global lock-in becomes inescapable, even if the theoretical switching costs are low.
And quite the contrary, GitHub locks people in simply because most developers have a GitHub account. People use GitHub these days to put their portfolio on display. And I've worked with a couple of companies that manage their projects on GitHub and it was a pretty painless process to send me an invitation for joining their private repos.
Even Linux is mirrored on GitHub and even Linus Tolvards has a GitHub account. GitHub is not only a really good Git hosting service, but in case you haven't noticed, it's also a vertical social-network built for developers. And their service keeps improving by leaps and bounds, compared to their competitors, which are merely followers. I'm so happy with GitHub that even though I can have as many private projects as I want on Bitbucket, I still pay GitHub for the privilege to have private projects.
Yes, something better can always come along. But just as Google did for search engines, with GitHub around it's pretty hard to build something better. And this to me is the best possible kind of lock-in and the sign of a thriving and growing company: the product being popular, not because it's forcing users, but because it's simply the best.
Would you rather have stock today in MySpace or a hypothetical 5-year-old SubversionHub? Obviously, the answer is different for different people, and there are good reasons to support and use Github and good reasons to invest in it. That programmers are good at product loyalty simply isn't one of them.
Github is a decent medium-term bet, but Pinterest is a much better lottery ticket.
Would you rather have stock today in MySpace or
a hypothetical 5-year-old SubversionHub
This is the criteria after which I judge companies:
(+) is the product solving a real problem for me? (yes)
(+) are they a sustainable, profit-generating business yet? (yes)
(+) is the product forcing users to remain customers? (no)
(+) are they smart and hard-working enough to adapt to new market conditions? (yes)
(+) do they still have growth potential? (yes, because GitHub is lately a social network for professional developers, being preferred over LinkedIn by many)
That programmers are good at product loyalty simply
isn't one of them.
The same goes for GitHub. Even if I stopped being a GitHub customer, I would still go to GitHub because most popular projects are managed on GitHub or have a mirror there. Popularity in turn helps GitHub get valuable feedback, which it can use to further improve my experience, which in turn makes me a happier customer and so on.