Amazon HQ2 was supposed to add jobs last year. It shed them instead
washingtonpost.com
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The costs we levy on businesses to operate in the US are extremely affordable and fair - giving them further discounts and rebates does nothing but enrich investors.
Maybe that's a good thing. But specifically not with regards to state subsidies.
They shouldn't be competed away at the demands of business, but used with purpose.
Subsidies (or anything which quacks like a subsidy) should be regulated so this nonsense doesn't happen.
1000x this. Every news story about these subsidies eventually becomes "we gave BigCorp a $5 billion tax break and they opened a facility that employs 50 people."
The local community actually wins.
Sure, its easy for people in NYC and San Francisco to say that nobody should compete for any of these jobs. They are going to get them anyway.
But the moment some other location tries to compete for that economic benefit, well now all of a sudden "their" jobs are being stolen by undeserving locations.
Would be the best antidote to this sort of thing, but is probably untenable to amend at this point.
This is how you end up with the Rust Belt.
The Rust Belt is proof positive of Big Business operating in a unrestrained environment. NAFTA, the move to China, and its ilk are a direct consequence of federal government overriding the will of the people. If there was any actual power at the local level any imports the got shipped overseas would have been slapped with tariffs. You shouldn't get unrestrained access to the largest market in the west while also ignoring the external costs.
What's the point of discussing this, when people don't read?
Could you elaborate on the argument here -- are you suggesting that if a job has a potential for future loss, it is just better to not create the job at all? If I was mayor, i'd be happy to take a high-paying job in my locality even if it isn't perpetual. The key would be to tie incentives to actual payroll. Subsidy disappears as soon as the job disappears.
But guaranteeing perpetual jobs is something no organization can do, not even governments.
1. that organizations leverage and abuse these breaks
2. that its possible for layoffs to not impact the new teams and buildings pretty easily
3. that a single bad quarter shouldn't lead to layoffs esp from a company that literally is the poster child for not tanking share price when facing losses
Its weird to have this subtext or joke that AOC wouldn't understand business cycles. She's not the first or last politician to try and spend money on lasting change.
Virginia paid $750M in subsidies for Amazon HQ2 to bring 2500 high paying jobs in 2023 and Amazon did not reach that goal. They'll probably miss the 2024 mark too. What recourse does Virginia have?
Assuming that Gemini is right and Virginia keeps 5-6% of your taxable income, individuals should earn at least 5M just for break even. I don't understand this model - can someone help make sense?
Wrong. Virginia approved up to $750M in subsidies for Amazon should Amazon meet the terms.
> What recourse does Virginia have?
All they have to do is abide by the agreement because Amazon has to make the case each year to receive that year's subsidy.
Not hard to imagine Amazon got a favorable deal concerning the subsidy stipulations due to all the competing bids for HQ2.
https://d39w7f4ix9f5s9.cloudfront.net/a1/f2/85b7a8db41379e15...
From my reading, it seems pretty reasonable.
(1) Here's what Virginia and Amazon agree to. (2) Here's how it will be measured. (3) Here are the terms around payments.
The only real "subsidy" in the NYC deal was a land grant where an old plastics factory used to be that required significant environmental clean up. The land is also next to the notorious Queensbridge projects.
Really considering we mostly work in this industry, the amount of ignorance surrounding the deal, its incentive structure, and how it went up in flames is staggering.
Even the talking point about how Amazon opened up new NYC offices anyways is completely innumerate, so far they've created about 1/5th of the positions that they were projected to create under the HQ2 proposal.
Besides, the program is structured such that they wouldn't get the rebate if they didn't hire so what does it matter?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/04/13/amazon-hq...
Overall, Amazon did request $152M in April 2023 for the 6939 jobs it created. They didn’t request any money thru COVID and that $152M will be paid late 2026. Amazon has also paused building due to WFH and maybe realizing they don’t need another HQ. Overall, I would say this thing will stall for the next few years. There is an opportunity cost related to other businesses being offered those same subsidies and are growing. Alas, that can’t be measured.
Working at AWS I had teammates hired as remote for a team that was distributed across various regions, and we were given a mandate to either "return" to an office (including potentially having to move if one of the ones assigned to the team) or "voluntarily" leave (with no severance). I'm not saying that they didn't realize they didn't need as much real estate overall, but WFH is not the reason because it largely doesn't exist anymore at Amazon.
but notice pay and severance are not mandatory for at will employees. the company basically gets to decide whether it's worth paying you not to sue them.
there's one more factor being missed here. obviously they won't say so publicly, but there's a case to be made that the entire HQ2 was as much about calling Seattle's bluff as it was about establishing a second company HQ for its own sake. now that that particular piece of legislation has been repealed, there's not as much reason to follow through on the original plan for HQ2. see: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_head_tax
How is this obviously not bad!? Arent most of us technologists here? How is creating 1 job better than creating 5 high paying jobs? Can anyone currently unemployed chime in on whether you prefer having high paying jobs available vs not having them available?
Why are you putting subsidiy in quote if they got a tax rebate?
Essentially the state was rebating the corporate tax they would have received in lieu of the income tax revenue obtained from the new positions along with the increased competition for high paying tech roles in the city.
The program was deliberately structured to be revenue neutral in terms of absolute tax revenue while increasing overall tax revenue by increasing state GDP
It seems like you're trying to make this way more complex than it is.
From the perspective of a city:
Gaining quality high paying jobs without a large subsidy >> Gaining quality high paying jobs while paying a large subsidy.
That's what was argued and is correct. She knew the city was in a strong negotiation position and it was absurd to provide a subsidy.
Further, most of the incentive programs that comprised Amazon's HQ2 package were pre-existing programs available to anyone, led by $1.2 billion from Excelsior Jobs, $897 million from REAP, both of which are still active programs open to any company meeting their requirements.
https://esd.ny.gov/excelsior-jobs-program
https://www.nyc.gov/site/finance/business/business-reap.page
>It seems like you're trying to make this way more complex than it is.
>From the perspective of a city:
>Gaining quality high paying jobs without a large subsidy >> Gaining quality high paying jobs while paying a large subsidy.
>That's what was argued and is correct. She knew the city was in a strong negotiation position and it was absurd to provide a subsidy.
Here is the actual equation we ended up with:
Gaining N high paying jobs without a large subsidy << Gaining 5N quality high paying jobs while paying a large subsidy paid if and only if 5N jobs created.
I do think it's slightly surprising that the US doesn't really seem to have an equivalent to the EU's concept of "unlawful state aid", which shuts down a lot of this stuff before it starts.
You are right, but missing the fact that the commodity can exist in location a vs location b. The argument for subsidies was to push to move the job to a specific location. As a tech worker in the NYC area, this would be awesome. It was an incredibly selfish decision by AoC and others to vanquish most of these jobs.
Also remember all the secondary and tertiary jobs (nannies, restaurants, dog-walkers) which were all lost along with the high paying tech jobs.
I want to be fair here -- HQ2 was being discussed before the pandemic when office space was at a premium. We are now post-pandemic, where office space in major cities sit empty, languishing, and sometimes entire buildings going bankrupt with no equity value left.
Of course Amazon is able to easily rent tons of office space in NYC _now_.
Which if office space was at a premium, then that means there was way more demand then there was supply. Meaning there is no reason to be paying people to move into this premium, high-in-demand product. All the more proof that her and others saying the same thing were correct.
The argument was the subsidies were going to be to build new office space in Long Island City in Queens, where there weren't many jobs. As a former Brooklyner, this seemed like a huge positive to me. Imagine not having to move to the West Coast for FAANG jobs! (Obviously this has substantially changed with the pandemic and FAANG jobs distributing across the coasts post pandemic)
Amazing that so many supply-and-demand aficionados couldn't see that.
And it's not like Amazon has brought nearly as many jobs to NYC as they planned to with HQ2.
This isn't necessarily to say that the calculus was wrong here -- New York is perhaps uniquely a place that doesn't really need a huge influx of Amazon jobs. But I think a lot of people misunderstood the HQ2 process as like "this was a unique and rare situation in which a local government applied tax incentives to get a corporation to open a major facility there." It wasn't. That's very routine. What was unique and rare about the HQ2 process was how public it was.
Most places don’t already have that (or at least not enough of it) and so it could make sense to offer short term subsidies in exchange for long term industry presence.
The poor people living in public housing around LIC overwhelmingly favored the project which was going to bring new public spaces, upgrades to schools, and affordable housing. None of that got built and instead the new office lease happened in Hudson Yards where none of the poor LIC residents will benefit at all.
She similarly helped kill a redevelopment in Industry City that included a bunch of affordable housing and light manufacturing jobs. Those jobs didn't go somewhere else in the city.
https://patch.com/new-york/astoria-long-island-city/long-awa...
> As of 2017, the median household income was $66,382 in Community Board 1[47] and $67,359 in Community Board 2.[48] In 2018, an estimated 18% of Community Board 1 and 20% of Community Board 2 residents lived in poverty, compared to 19% in all of Queens and 20% in all of New York City. The unemployment rate was 8% in Community Board 1 and 5% in Community Board 2, compared to 8% in Queens and 9% in New York City. Rent burden, or the percentage of residents who have difficulty paying their rent, is 47% in Community Board 1 and 51% in Community Board 2, slightly lower than the citywide and boroughwide rates of 53% and 51% respectively. Based on this calculation, as of 2018, northern LIC is considered to be gentrifying, while southern LIC is considered to be high-income relative to the rest of the city and not gentrifying.[43]: 7 [44]: 7
For what it's worth, my sister-in-law lives there (in a $4 million brownstone) and I visit with my wife for New Year's Eve every year. There may or may not be a ton of high-paying jobs literally in Long Island City, but it's on the bank of the East River, a two-minute train ride from Manhattan, maybe ten from Hudson Yards. They're probably better off converting all those old bottling plants to residences rather than office space anyway.
Also, not that she shouldn't care about LIC to whatever extent all people should care about other people, but AOC's district does not include LIC.
Yeah, exactly. My point is that the project included a lot of community upgrades paid for by Amazon that now won't happen at all.
that said, I don't really understand the desire to put a major hub in LIC from amazon in the first place. it's a nice place, but the recruitment base for a location in LIC must be a lot lower than in midtown or hells kitchen. that would be a dealbreaker for lots of folks that currently commute from JC, Edison, etc.
If you consider the fact that even before the deal fell apart people began buying up swaths of real estate in the area in preparation of pushing out her current constituents then I think she made the right move.
Her people are the blue collar workers of the district.
The previous rep who was the Democrats top connection to Wall Street didn't even live in the district. he lived in Virginia :talk about not representing their interests.
I’m still proud of our local government for publicly publishing their proposal, and not offering any major concessions. The proposal was basically “we have what you want, so come get it, we’re not gunna pay you”.
The local board that rejected Amazon had a separate set of members that decided to vote however they voted. They are also up for election completely independently, so they would have paid the price if locals disagreed with them (maybe they did, I didnt check)
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/nyregion/hudson-yards-new...
The vast majority of the proposed Amazon tax breaks were longstanding, pre-existing programs that were available to any company who fulfill the requirements. Most, like REAP and Excelsior, remain available today.
shocked pikachu face
Everyone called it when Amazon was shopping HQ2 around and NYC told them to get bent. Completely predictable. Never make incentive deals with megacorps unless it's for the film industry. They know how to scratch someone's back.
What kind of "back scratching" does the film industry do and why should I like it?
Speaking of "incentive deals with megacorps", how about those sports stadium deals?
At least the govt officials get tickets, right?
But setting aside all of that research shows little to no impact https://www.nber.org/papers/w25963 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155407
The prestige of films being made in their state keep the subsidies rolling in but there are many great "bang for your buck" subsidies states could be making that just aren't sexy.
[1] https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/star-wars-destination...
[2] https://ew.com/tv/2017/10/13/breaking-bad-house-pizza-throwi...
Much like incentives for NFL stadiums, it just doesn't seem like the public gets the benefit they are promised in all the glossy announcement spreads
And to be clear I support the government subsidizing the arts like film and I miss when my state had a subsidy and a lot of famous shows/movies were filmed in places I knew. I just haven't seen the data to back up the "impact" claimed.
Folks on these teams speculated that the Return To Hub push was specifically thought of to meet HQ2 incentives.
None of the distributed employees ended up in Virginia. They all found local teams internally or left Amazon. When high performer leaves a team it’s common for others to leave since it breaks the ice. Lots of these teams then lost local talent to companies with less strict in-office requirements.
Markets are gonna communicate information whether you like it or not.
I think we in society really need to evaluate this...maybe instead of forcing companies to create jobs, we can think of another way for humans to have money. Some humans make money not from working a job but from ownership, getting dividends from that. What if we could change the way we do or view ownership and people get dividends from that? Haha, maybe I'm just reinventing the stock market, but not all stocks give dividends.
Maybe instead of asking companies to create jobs, we should ask them to give more dividends?
I'm curious to hear your thoughts to this dilemma of us asking conpanies to create jobs and how that might make them less efficient.
One of the biggest reasons for layoffs is investor pressure to increase shareholder value.
You basically already have to be rich(maybe not HN rich) for dividends to have any real difference in your life. You have to be fantastically rich for your dividend ownership to have any influence on the company.
So I'm curious what a different concept of dividend/profit sharing might look like where it can help those who aren't the medium or super rich.
For an alternative model, worker coops would be the most straight forward.
What I worry about is how to increase the number of small businesses and the number of people working for themselves.
>Virginia’s incentives for the company are supposed to reward its progress toward a goal of bringing 25,000 new jobs to Arlington by 2030. They are also structured to ensure that the company maintains those new jobs for at least five years.
They have 6 years to fill ~20,000 jobs. Seems pretty doable once they scale up hiring again.
Really it’s all a tempest in a teapot.
Amazon is not the only F500 to be divesting headcount within Seattle city limits in favor of elsewhere in the metro area.