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Comment by Dem_Boys | Hacker News Reader

Can someone provide the unbiased game theory strategy on what happens next? And what will this conflict look like in 12 months?

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One hypothesis, if Iran doesn't escalate more, is that Israel take advantage of not retaliating (which will be devastating for Iran and probably be close to a global war) and ask in return to have a harder stance on Iran. The world has been blind about Iran converting into a nuclear power and USA stance very soft for being USA, the top military and business power in the world.

The other hypothesis is retaliation... which obviously turns to a global war. I don't know if precisely a WWIII because the domestic situation of well developed countries is lazy regarding military action.

At least 8 hours after it seems I am not that far [1].

[1] "Fending Off Iran Attack Is a Major Israeli Achievement. Retaliation Would Risk an All-out Regional War" https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-14/ty-article/.p...

Basically someone has to blink. My estimation is that the Israeli government has a lot more latitude since the Iranian governemnt is sort of fueled by this hatred of Israel and the US so they really cant be seen to back down. Luckily this attack wasnt really that bad and to me signifies that Iran doesnt want to escalate so I think likely Israel blinks now with the excuse of focusing on Gaza.

attack was really that bad, it's just israeli air defenses were better

Iran knew that though, which was the point, and does make the attack not that bad. Maybe Im just being hopeful though but it really does seem like Iran did what they could to escalate as little as they realistically could and Israelis will respect that.

it's like if you wearing a bullet proof vest, i shot you. fail to kill. and my defense for attempted murder "he knew it was going to happen and had vest on. it's not that bad after all"

More like "if I didnt try to kill you I would be killed myself, so I shot you in a place I knew it wouldnt kill you". Iran's government has positioned itself so that it needs to respond to avoid unrest. They could not have done nothing, and this wasnt much in the scheme of things.

israeli news report now that israel intercepted ~100 ballistic missiles. this is in addition to cruise missiles and uav. this is "not that bad" ?

I mean yea, launching a bunch of missiles that you know will never land isnt that bad.

you do realize that it is literally first time that so many ballistic missiles are shot together and nobody even knew till today if it's possible in general to defend against such attack ?

What do you think Iran shouldve done?

Stop supporting terrorist.

I dont see what that does to quell the domestic calls for a response to the embassy attack. Of course I want Iran to stop the bullshit, but the realty is that they couldnt let this attack go unless they wanted massive unrest. So the question remains, how should Iran respond to the embassy attack? To me this seems like just about that absolute minimum they couldve done.

there was no embassy attack. there was building next to consulate.

with regards to "domestic calls", you should go and read some data on support levels of iranian government, etc.

I’m curious if you think this is bad, what do you think of the number of missiles that are sent to and hit targets in Gaza?

To my eyes, compared to what Israel is actively doing against Palestinians, this really doesn’t seem that bad. In fact I would even go so far as to say it is expected. Countries engaging in genocide rarely do so in peace.

israel doesn't use ballistic missiles in gaza. you also need to look at how many rockets hamas and hezballah shoot at israel. the only reason that there is not more damage and dead it's because israel is vested in protected it's citizens.

What does that matter in the context of how bad things are. What matters are the types of targets and the yields of the explosives

This would have justified a symbolic attack whilest exporting less weapons and terror which Israel may have correctly interpreted as a victory.

Now we have a very substantial provocation by a party working on nuclear weapons. After they can threaten Armageddon they can export nearly unlimited harm short of existential.

We'll be hearing a justification for a preemptive strike on their ability to make war shortly and in 90 days half their leadership will be dead.

And also you get charged hundreds of millions of dollars for using the vest.

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