> University students have average intelligence according to Uttl et al. They suggest the following consequences: First, universities and professors need to realize that students are no longer extraordinary but merely average, and have to adjust curricula and academic standards. Second, employers can no longer rely on applicants with university degrees to be more capable or smarter than those without degrees. Third, students need to realize that acceptance into university is no longer an invitation to join an elite group.
Conclusion: A college degree today means roughly what a high school diploma meant in 1960 - except that it takes a lot more time and money to get.
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/184260/educational-attai...
> the number of awarded PhDs is larger, and therefore the number of Nobel prizes awarded per PhD is lower [..] I don't know what that tells about an average PhD vs average PhD then or 'standards of the field'.
I don't think it's about Nobel prizes per PhD, the article mentions neither the word 'Nobel' nor 'prize'.
> "From 1900-1999, the U.S.’s production of academic doctorates increased a hundredfold, while its population increased by 3.5 times—that is, almost thirty times more PhDs per capita"
That's the issue: Why are we dishing out far more PhDs - and I'm guessing also all other types of academic qualification - per capita than we were before?
Hypothesis #1: We're all getting smarter!
Hypothesis #2: The value of the qualification is dropping...
In the immortal words of so many professors: "discuss" ...
On one hand, the sphere of human knowledge is expanding, so the outermost edges (the surface area, so to speak) are longer, and therefore we need more PhDs who are the people at those outermost edges. It also explains the extreme specialization of those PhDs, whose theses are incomprehensible to normal people.
On the other, there's been a systematic push to put everyone through college, and of course some of those people go on to more advanced degrees. So given the incentives involved it's expected that more people per capita come out with a PhD.
<spoiler> Apologies if I'm the bearer of bad news, but most PhDs stop working in science and end up working for corporations.
> there's been a systematic push to put everyone through college
Q: Why is that?
The bills don't pay themselves, I suppose! Especially if a PhD comes with a hefty loan to pay off.
> Q: Why is that?
I don't know if any single person could fully answer this question (and it certainly won't be me), but my guess is that those well-intentioned folks in power saw that college-educated people earn more money, and applied faulty causation. Put more people through college and they will earn more and make the country wealthier! Put everyone through college and everyone will be better off.
Could explain the shift up since the internet.
Hypothesis #4: The work at Los Alamos to win the war on the back of PhDs popularized the notion that smart people could change the world.
Could explain the strong shift since 1940.
I'd love to see a working definition of "successful" as regards to getting a PhD.
I spent the best part of 20 years recovering from getting mine, and I'm not kidding.
I think not the PhDs are the problem, but the amount of papers. We just need all the PhD students to produce those papers to keep the industry going (much like a snow ball system). There is no incentive to scale down, so we keep scaling up.
The problem IMHO ist that we have scaled our methods to cope with enormous amount of mostly empirical results. P-value hacking is implicit in this system. IMHO we can throw away two thirds of all published research in many fields because it is not reliably reproducible/generalizable. If we could/would use all those PhD students to put science on better grounds that would be great. However, we expect all those PhDs to produce new results, so we get what we wished for.
I'm not sure we agree on the definition of "we just need" in that!
> There is no incentive to scale down, so we keep scaling up.
Scaling up waffle just produces more waffle, and no-one actually wants that. We seem unable to agree on how to judge progress in academia, so we end up counting papers. Which means everyone's trying to publish waffle.
That of course can lead to both 1 and 2 (why not both, and let's not forget that smart high school kids today know things which the very best of the PhD candidates hadn't done the work of figuring out yet in 1900)
This is Goodhart's Law.
When a degree is something you have to love the subject in order to get, having the degree is a strong signal. Once the government starts handing out student loans to the average person so they can get the degree, having the degree can no longer prove you're exceptional.
The average person can't be above average. You can open up a paper mill and give everyone a piece of paper, but all that does is dilute the value of the paper.
The point that the leading group in a field could and indeed did know each other to some extent is somewhat conflated in the piece with that particular group, who represent a very particular set of one-off extreme high achievers.
Self evidently "most physicists" are not going to measure up against a group including 17 Nobel Prize winners.
PhDs serve a different purpose now in society, but are still of value.