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Comment by paxys | Hacker News Reader

Affordable small cars have never been a thing in the US, electric or not. There's zero reason to believe that this new batch will pose a threat.

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Should be safe to allow imports then, right? Since nobody but me would buy one. :-)

Who says imports aren't allowed?

They are allowed, but the US has a 27.5% tarrif on Chinese EVs.

$13k instead of $10k is still great for a tiny car!

US protectionism would like a word with you.

Chinese protectionism would also like a word. Remember these tariffs were originally setup between the US and China in 2006 to protect China's car market, not the USA's. See https://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/dswenson/ChinaCarPa...

> Here, the bilateral agreement noted the expectation that by 2006 China’s import tariff on assembled cars was to be reduced from its pre WTO level of 80% or 100% to 25%, while the diverse rates of tariff on auto parts were to be reduced such that the average tariff on auto parts declined to 10%.

That was a reduction from the 80-100% it was previously, so 25% was a huge win back then, but it was (and is) still a mostly protected car market.

I'm not saying anything about the Chinese protections merely the US protections.

The US and Chinese protections were negotiated at the same time in 2006: China wanted a 25% tariff for automobiles imported into China from the USA (down from 80-100%), the USA said, OK, but we will apply the same to your cars. That's why it was negotiated, if China offered no tariff, the USA would have jumped at that.

Almost all tariffs are reciprocated, that's just how this game works. It is only an accident in history that these tariffs now protect the USA rather than China.

Imports have to satisfy all the US regulations.

To quote from a link someone else posted:

> Most Chinese cars haven’t been engineered with US safety regulations in mind; just going through those protocols is an expensive and elaborate process.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/why-can-t...

There are plenty of small cars made outside of China. Why do you think not a single auto manufacturer worldwide bothers to export their best selling models to the US? The market here wants SUVs and trucks, not $15K subcompacts.

We don't know what the market wants, because the government has made it very difficult to supply such a subcompact.

Outside of Chinese-made vehicles the US has probably the most open auto import market in the world. Most manufacturers enjoy a 2.5% tariff, which is a joke, and not reciprocated anywhere in the world. All these foreign manufacturers are selling $25-50K+ cars just fine (over 4 million of them every year in fact). It's the US market that is rejecting lower priced cars.

Safety and other regulations still apply.

European safety and environmental standards are much higher than here.

higher sounds like a quality argument, which may be true. they are not stricter though, which is what they'd need to be to refute the parents point. take headlights, for example, where the us's requirements are significantly stricter than european ones.

The article cites the Alliance for American Manufacturing, for one, as warning that if these Chinese-state-subsidized vehicles are permitted for import without trade adjustments correcting for the distortionary effect of the subsidies, then unsubsidized non-Chinese manufacturers will be unable to compete and have to fold.

As the article quotes Elon Musk in his capacity as Tesla guy:

> “The Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world,” Musk said during the call. “So, I think they will have significant success outside of China depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established.”

> “Frankly, I think, if there are not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other companies in the world.”

I am attempting to import the Seagull currently (experience the pain, see if and how to scale, how to avoid tariff mechanisms, etc), intend to report back with findings.

https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-import-export/importing-car

This should be really difficult, especially since America and China have high tariffs in place for automobiles between each other as per China's WTO entrance agreement.

But if you want to have a lot of fun, try importing (as a private citizen) any kind of car into China. It is virtually impossible, even if the car is old. My boss tried to get his Hummer into China once just for kicks, and the negotiations just went on forever and eventually he just went back to the states. You might have an easier time if you are a diplomat and can get black plates for it.

As an infosec/cybersecurity practitioner, it is my jam to probe attack surface looking for weakness to exploit. This is simply another threat modeling exercise, policy instead of tech. I am not against the tariffs, but any means, there is value in protecting US domestic manufacturing for national security interests. But, there is a huge cheap EV TAM that is going unsatisfied by legacy auto and Tesla.

I also have a lot of disadvantaged folks in my sphere who could use cheap, clean EV wheels, and I cannot afford Teslas for all of them.

Tesla had to move production to China originally because of import tariffs. The USA did not establish the bilateral tariffs to protect its car markets, these were in place to protect China's. It seems a bit unfair that the USA is getting flack for this two decades later.

I admit I could totally fail, the learning is the exercise.

I honestly don't even mind the tariffs that seem to be present, and could probably tolerate +50% or even +80%. But the other question is whether the car ticks all the safety boxes that could flat out block the car from legally driving on US roads.

Can you buy one in Mexico and keep driving in US for X time?

Can you import from Mexico instead of directly from China? Would this help overcome the tariffs/other obstacles?

Although this article was previously linked on HN, regarding importing 4 wheel loaders directly from China:

https://electrek.co/2023/11/30/i-bought-container-full-of-el...

> Affordable small cars have never been a thing in the US

Why not? Just a cultural thing? Times are tough in America and people are interested in EVs because of gas prices. I see a $10k EV selling like wildfire - small, entry-level and not as big a commitment as a F-150 Lightning.

He was using sarcasm

Driving a small car on US highways is like being a deer in the middle of a herd of elephants.

Yes it's a cultural thing. The highest selling vehicles in the US every year are SUVs and pickup trucks, even in the middle of dense cities. The small 2-4 door cars you see all over Europe and Asia aren't sold here at all. Mazda 3, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic etc. are considered "compact" cars, and that size is the smallest people will even consider.

The last age of the small car, which was pretty much the late 1970s in the US:

- oil embargo

- cars went downhill very quickly (planned obsolesence)

- inflation meant new car buyers could buy less.

Small cars died steadily under four decades of cheap gas, globalized production and financing keeping larger cars affordable (or at least, financable). Cars got a lot better, so used cars would work perfectly fine so you chose between a crappy small new car and a much better used one.

Now?

- used cars since COVID are still really expensive

- inflation again, and even before inflation, the 7-10 year car loan was becoming really common

- gas prices are a lot more volatile in the consumer perspective, and from a political long term standpoint carbon taxes may come into play soon in addition to reduced financing for new petroleum projects

- cash for clunkers will likely appear again in the next decade / recession as a way to usher off old ICE cars off the market

- increasing urbanization of the US combined with decreased tolerance for car traffic may result in SUVs being banned from cities, or an exhorbitant tax

- the war on the younger generations means along with increased global warming awareness means that an affordable small EV is likely much more "socially" acceptable, maybe even desirable.

- All US car companies are global, and the Chinese car companies are doing quite well in international markets. If China wins this market segment (especially in the Indian/Chinese market where there are 2.5 billion people) then that provides enormous scale to assault all other market segments. They are already climbing the model ladder in Europe.

The SUV/Pickup is still king of the US, but let's face it that was always a product of marketing. Marketing can falter quickly. The most popular vehicles aren't even SUVs, they are station wagons dressed up in marketese as "crossovers". That shift has already begun.

Neat! Then we should allow them into the market, right?

This is exactly the size I want for my second car. Bring it on.

As it stands, I’ll end up spending $10k more on a used, 2023 Bolt EUV.

During the pandemic car shortage, a lot of car makers started over-producing their higher-end models. With the entry-level market being underserved and facing high interest rates, this might find a market. Not that people wouldn't rather upgrade, but it's a lot cheaper than a Mazda 2.

Indeed this article uses a weird framing, if anything this seems more like a threat to EU manufacturers that sell small cars in a market where people want smaller cars, not US manufacturers that mostly sell SUVs and Pickups in a market where people are picking ever-larger monstruosities.

The original VW Beetle begs to differ.

After 40 years of marketing for pickup trucks (that let manufacturers skirt emission regulations)?

On a forum that's funded entirely on the premise of small startups eating the lunch of big incumbents, this is a weird take.

These are not small startups. They are China government funded enterprises.

I'm not saying they're a startup. I'm saying that a company can take another's market share. No company is ever safe from another company coming along and disrupting the industry it's in. HN is about startups doing it, but it can with big companies as well.

The general cost of living is going to change that.

I mean, not from the domestic makers who want as much margin as possible, but when I was a kid, the Japanese imports had already gone from being seen as junk to praised as the most reliable cars you could buy, and Korean cars were just starting to come in.

Literally in that article a man who has more stake in the game than you, Elon musk, says it’s an existential threat. This must mean Elon is completely delusional. There is no threat and no market for sub 10k cars because they’re too small for Americans.

Elon musk needs a reality check.

Pretty sure if the article was titled "The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring Tesla" the person you are responding to wouldn't have commented, but the US auto industry is definitely not scared by small affordable cars seeing as that market is already dominated by South Korean and Japanese manufacturers in the US.

The difference is obvious. Current small Japanese and Korean cars compete directly with small American vehicles. They compete in the same classes and - by in large - follow the same product trends. A $10k or even $15k automobile would be in a class of its own in the American market.

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