Twitter's pivot to x.com is a gift to phishers
krebsonsecurity.com
krebsonsecurity.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X.com_(bank)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/07/25/elon-musk-...
There's also xAI, which I think is technically another distinct company rather than part of X/Twitter.
I expected Twitter to crash and burn as soon as he took over; I was wrong. I guess it's like Truth Social - if you're fabulously wealthy, you can run a social media site that's a complete train-wreck, without it ruining you.
/me never had a Twitter account. Nor Faceache.
I do get the point you're trying to make though. Just thought that emphasis was a little off.
Just like with Elon, you have to consider that extreme outcomes are the result of extreme people or people that were forged in extreme circumstances (which is certainly true of Michael Jackson).
In that sense Michael Jackson having sleepovers in his bed with 12-year olds[1] and Musk's x.com rename are very similar.
[1]: taking the most generous interpretation; no comment on whether he was a nonce or not.
I agree with you but imagine if Elon had listened when people said the same thing about starting an electric car company, a reusable rocket company or a brain-interface company.
Or if Michael Jackson had listened to all the people that told him the sounds on his album were too crazy and fused too many genres together.
Ultimately it's a fine line between genius and crazy. You have to acknowledge that often where genius resides, so does crazy.
I mean look at Steve Jobs, clearly incredible talent - but also harbored some unconventional beliefs about medicine which many say ultimately led to his premature death.
Even Achilles had his heel.
And those weren't widely held views either so it's not even accurate.
The world would be such a simple place if it really was as simple as "shitty behavior = shitty person". It'd certainly make my life easier if this were the case.
But the world is so much more complicated and difficult to comprehend than that. Often the most interesting stuff happens in the gray areas where you have to wrestle with multitudes. We all contain multitudes ourselves.
He was deeply troubled, but he still had a huge, lasting impact
SpaceX's success is massively overstated, every time it's brought up. Their rockets are still not stable and if you actually tally up all the money they've received from the state, it'd be way more expensive - even adjusted to inflation - then the space shuttle launches from the nineties.
What other impact are you thinking of? The hyper loop? The solar rooftop's? His vaporware robots? The boring company? Everything turned out to be pure hype with hilariously overstated success. Or maybe the autopilot which is still only usable by people that enjoy gambling with pedestrian lives?
(Delivery on his wild promises, well, sometimes the true believers he hires make that happen, sometimes not.)
I wonder how long this lasts, though? The more we see of him, the less smart/magical he seems other than to devotees. I feel like his getting in the limelight has pulled the curtain back quite a bit.
I'm as cynical about Tesla as anyone, as my comment history will show. I think they played fast and loose with financial data when celebrity and anything tech put you above the rules. If he had the enemies he has now, I don't think they would have made it.
But...Elon Musk is a force. I was skeptical of him in, maybe, 2016, but the guy has managed to continue to do stuff no one else seems capable of, even in the face of haters. There's no way pre-Elon Tesla does what he did, I don't believe it for a second.
Even Twitter; yes he fired too many people and it's a bit of a fiasco (and hard to kill, apparently). But the fact that he's using it to explicitly push an agenda is wild. There's no one else like him.
What tomoyoirl said is correct. Musk's talent is mainly in raising hype which results in incredible funding. he's definitely the most successful person at that since Steve Jobs.
Everyone that ever worked in large enterprise knew that Twitter would be fine after the mass terminations. The only thing you lose at that point is the ability to maneuver, the platform will be mostly automated and barring incompetence or malice, things will just keep chugging along with a skeleton crew.
Given how shit even current EVs are compared to the early Model S, you are totally wrong. It was always at most a side project for ALL the existing OEMs as we now know. They have have had chance after chance after chance to prove the thesis that "if they cared, they could produce a Tesla killer overnight". None of the OEMs have produced anything that is competitive with Tesla in all metrics (price, range, features etc.) all of them compromise in one or more areas.
The only real serious competitors are the Chinese. There is a reason when teardown analysis reports are offered on all the EVs, the Chinese care about one company and one company only: Tesla. Everyone else is just a follower and the Chinese are not even bothering to waste their time looking at them. You even see it in their actions. Tesla is the only "legacy western" company without a JV partner in China. China can happily dump all the other losers any time they want. They can't afford to lose Tesla so they have accommodated them.
>SpaceX's success is massively overstated, every time it's brought up. Their rockets are still not stable and if you actually tally up all the money they've received from the state, it'd be way more expensive - even adjusted to inflation - then the space shuttle launches from the nineties.
Are you for real? In 2021 they launched ~380 Metric tons of mass to orbit while the rest of the world combined launched about 400 metric tons. In 2022? They were double what the rest of the world did and finally in 2023, they were 80% of all the mass to orbit launched. When I mean rest of world that includes: Rest of the US industry + Europe + India + China + Japan + Russia + everyone else. If you look at the other launch providers in the US they get far more subsidies and have delivered not even a fraction of what SpaceX has provided.
Can you think of many industries where a single company is doing 80% of worldwide effort? And they are on track to increase that by 50% this year (a metric they will likely achieve given their track record).
In the last couple years they have sent 42 humans to orbit and back. They year they are on track to do their first spacewalk.
Starlink now has 2.3 Million customers in over 70 countries.
I am seeing this outright dismissal of Musk more and more since the whole Twitter saga. Its reeks of ignorance just like all the people that repeatedly make fun of Apple users as idiots who just get duped by fancy marketing. Even in 2024 people here make that silly argument. Musk bashing is the new version of that. It just makes you look ignorant because you are so blinded by what you don't like that you have dismissed all these amazing achievements that no one else is doing.
Sounds like nonsense used to wave away his success with SpaceX.
If you look at his interviews, it seems like he is most involved in SpaceX of all his ventures. He can explain deep technical details of the product whereas this is less true for Tesla and has been proven many times that he cannot do the same for Twitter.
Elon had all the intricacies and parts of the rockets memorized and was just rattling off details like it was nothing.
Kind of makes me think human intelligence is a direct function of memory.
My point is that every product was hilariously under delivered, not that the product itself is unusable.
Let's address the products you're citing:
The Tesla model s was marketed heavily on price and the full self driving. There were essentially no electric cars in the 100k price range the Tesla cost, so comparing the cars at the time the car was announced with when the car actually was delivered, 5 yrs later is extremely questionable. But without Musk's hype, we probably wouldn't have the rivian etc, as they were all riding his hype wave. But we'd still have electric cars. Just less then we've got right now.
Now SpaceX's. It got billions of taxpayers money, there can be no second company because nobody else can get such funding. In the nineties pretty much everything was delivered by NASA. It just threw in the towel for price reasons, so Musk came along and promised a lunar base & manned missions to mars, netting him all contacts.
So yes, now we have SpaceX. The only player that can deliver things to orbit, because Russia is too poor, European nations somehow don't want to spend money on it and China is mostly interested for military applications, so they're not publishing what they're actually delivering to orbit. They're definitely shipping things however, you occasionally get leaked videos from failed launches that spread toxic fumes close to population centers and similar fuckups.
What you're using as an argument is really an inevitability.
Starlink is another highly exaggerated product, which is still decent value if you need/want an Internet connection in an area that doesnt have usable cable connections. It's not the cheapest, nor the most expensive. It's in the middle. It's a solid choice (and so are the Tesla), it just didn't have quite as much impact as people attribute to it.
I'm not even bashing Musk. What I said from the start is that his contributions are exaggerated.
Why do you think that? As far as I can tell, both electric cars and reusable rockets technically could have been done decades earlier. But for all this time nobody was crazy enough to go all-in on it, until Musk did.
His individual actions certainly bumped things forward. I suppose what I doubt is that no one else would have done that, or that steady gradual adoption wouldn’t have been as far off as we imagine.
I should add a disclaimer here that I don’t feel very strongly about this stuff, and I’m pretty comfortable with being wrong. I also don’t have any major hang ups about Musk; he has undeniably done some great work.
It does seem to me that extreme wealth is a severe risk factor for untreatable kookiness. And arguably, being a talented entertainer is a risk factor for extreme wealth.
I don't deny Jackson's talent, and I assume Musk is very good at several things I've never tried. I would cheerfully forgo even modest wealth, if the deal was I didn't have to be like them.
As Musk said it himself when asked what he thought about the fact that his tweets may cause billions of dollars of stock drops: "I don't care".
The emperor has no clothes.
Ultimately, Levchin gathered several other key people in the company, and went to the investors threatening to quit (and destroy the company) unless they brought back Thiel as CEO. The board sided with Levchin, Theil returned and Musk was out of day-to-day operations.
If you’re interested in the PayPal story, I highly recommend Jimmy Soni’s book, The Founders. https://www.amazon.com/Founders-Paypal-Entrepreneurs-Shaped-...
I mean, while nothing about the web was particularly mature at the time, the idea that Windows was more mature than Linux for it is… peculiar, from the point of view of someone who was messing around with web programming at the time. Note how much difficulty Microsoft had migrating Hotmail to Windows.
My take is that Musk then sorta went "f-it, I had to buy Twitter. I might as well try and make it into X."
There is strong nostalgia for aw-shucks persona of an inventor-turned-business-owner.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/16/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-transcri...
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/dealbook-summit-2023-el...
So let's say, hypothetically, they build in a redirect from twitter to x-dot-com. Off the top of my head...
- All logins are now busted. Some percentage of users is lost forever because they can't remember their login credentials and instead of going through the recovery flow, they go use Bluesky.
- A huge amount of third-party integrations are busted because they aren't using client libraries that understand redirects
- A full code audit is necessary. Someone has hard-coded twitter.com into a critical system somewhere. Other people have referenced a variable, but it's the wrong variable. Still others are looking up the value in a database somewhere that doesn't have a search frontend anyone knows about. And some other database has a huge cache of absolute URLs it vends and everyone who built it got fired by Musk. This is probably the most predictable-cost step, but it's still a cost to be paid.
- A significant number of users are confused. The median of web user is profoundly ignorant of how the web works, and no matter how much you warn them and how much you prepare them, day-of-switch they will panic. Staff up your support team. Customers-lost-forever-two-point-oh.
- Every business integration needs to be updated. Google App Store, Apple App Store, Amazon Appstore... They all have bindings to twitter.com, and some part of their flow will panic and flag a security issue if they see it's turned into a redirect to elsewhere. That probably triggers a security audit of every version of the Twitter client (and those companies aren't particularly inspired to foot the bill on Musk's behalf, billionaire that he is...). Hell, Google indexes twitter.com via a dedicated side-pipe. Will that side-pipe handle a redirect?
(source: I've been in the side-seat for a merger-become-rebrand, and the number of things people expect to "just work" and don't is impressive).
That includes everyone who had 2FA active before Musk made that a "premium" feature and subsequentially lost their 2FA device. What a clusterfuck, that one.
> Every business integration needs to be updated. Google App Store, Apple App Store, Amazon Appstore... They all have bindings to twitter.com, and some part of their flow will panic and flag a security issue if they see it's turned into a redirect to elsewhere.
And that's assuming the integrations even support changing the primary domain name in their OAuth backend, which a lot of them will not. Or you have appliances that got made years ago when Twitter integration was the fad of the day - I 'member there's a fridge out there that showed tweets on its screen -, game consoles or other devices that don't get firmware updates any more.
Most of those are probably already broken. Twitter dropped support for most third-party API clients a few years ago.
It's stupid and irrational because this wasn't a decision that was made based on reason - it was an emotional one. Elon is a bag-holder. He bought x.com in the dotcom boom and doesn't want to admit that the domain he paid a good chunk of money for is worthless - hence the (failed) attempt to make a brand out of it.
I mean, if nothing else, "X did [something stupid]" just looks like someone forgot to fill in a template; no-one is going to publish an article with 'X', unqualified, in it.
Sarcasm aside, they probably were hoping to convert the brand name twitter has to 'x', but failed to realize how sticky the name was/is.
Was thinking almost exactly this while reading a recent BBC article — their style guide appears to be that the company's name is "X, formerly Twitter,"
Stated goal is to gradually transform it into an “everything app” — https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-aims-to-turn-twitter-i...
It's not going to work, but it is the only story you can tell yourself and employees about how the Twitter saga ends in any way other than Musk losing interest and getting distracted by AI again and Twitter spiraling into the drain and possibly being dumped into bankruptcy by its debt load.
While Twitter wasn't making money hand over fist, it was bringing in $4,500million in ad revenue prior to the rebrand and had years where it was marginally profitable.
Musk's saddling Twitter with interest on the debt he paid to buy the company is one of the reasons it's immolating money.
Everything about the purchase and the way the company has been run since Elon took the reigns has been baffling. The bizarre forced-push of the X brand is just the tip of the iceberg.
I dunno, is it that baffling? It seems like he really loved using the product but didn't like the leadership, and he just wanted to own it so he could mess around and have fun following his own whims.
Once you get the idea that he doesn't actually care about financial success it all seems pretty reasonable. Like any hobby, for X/Twitter to be a "success" it just has to amuse him, and based on his usage of the platform it seems to be doing that.
The amounts of money he's losing are staggering to us but also meaningless to him. Our society has allowed him to accumulate so much wealth that nothing he could do "wrong" in a business sense would meaningfully impact his lifestyle.
This is the frustrating part. If I went around my office tomorrow endorsing nazi propaganda, I would be out of a job by the end of the day and probably struggling to pay my mortgage in a few months.
But this fuckstick can do whatever he wants and never face any real repercussions. He could bankrupt Twitter, SpaceX, and Tesla and just decide to retire early on a private island.
It's so incredibly hard to actually fuck things up when you're rich that it's downright impressive when someone like SBF comes along and manages to actually do it.
If anything, the problem is with your workspace which forces a particular political viewpoint on you.
I'm frustrated that being born into money can make you functionally immune to most of those consequences.
There are two sides to freedom of speech. You have the freedom to say dumb shit, and I have the freedom to not associate with you because I don't like the dumb shit you say. If one of my employees started expressing pro-Nazi sentiments at the office, I would fire them, because I have a right to do so and because I believe the rest of my employees have a right to a safe working environment where they don't have to put up with people who think they are inferior just because of their race or cultural background.
nazi speech would incur this consequence because it is classified as hate speech.
However, termination of employee cannot apply to just _any_ speech that the boss doesnt like. Of course, the boss would have other ways to "manage out" that troublesome employee, but directly firing for the speech cannot be one of them.
What I have zero tolerance for is hate speech. These infractions don't get second chances.
Yes, once one throws reason out the window, just about anything becomes "reasonable"
I always thought the rebrand was a complete shame, if only for the reason that "tweet", meaning "to make a posting on the Twitter online message service : to post a tweet" is in the dictionary!
What a waste to throw that away.
This is how it goes in all big companies :(
Stuff like this makes it obvious that the people who are still there no longer give a fuck, they just do what they are told with the minimum effort required to collect the paycheck.
1: HN won't let me paste the rune, not sure if it's limited to BMP on purpose but you can see it on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansuz_(rune)
The US doesn't have the same sort of naming laws that are common in European countries, but there are state-specific limits around what you can have in a legal name.
Specifically, in California, you cannot have diacritic marks in a name, which is part of why people were shocked that Musk was able to name his child X Æ A-12, when someone named Ramón Núñez will have their legal name as "Ramon Nunez" in California.
s/\btwitter\.com\b/x.com/ig
1. your version replaces at-twitter.com with at-x.com
2. your version replaces twitter.com.au with x.com.au
I probably would have pushed back against the replace in the first place.
Like, in my imagination, within five minutes of anyone seeing this, a person with responsibility would have stepped in and said "No, you can't do this. And if you insist on doing this, here's five layers of audits and sign-offs that this needs to go through first, because the thing you're proposing is potentially really dangerous". Am I thinking it about it wrongly?
I cannot understand at all.
Given all the Twitter bugs and issues, it seems they have all been laid off.
I think you mean "Elon Musks random demand".
There is none. Stop trying to understand - it's a fool's errand.
>a person with responsibility would have stepped in
There are none left. They were either laid off, or they left before that could happen.
>"No, you can't do this"
... is the last thing anyone says to Elon Musk before getting fired.
I can just take the scene of Musk being on a roof yelling at the crew to change how they install solar tiles late in the night and translate it to him berating a programmer in the office to make it look like x.com and not caring about the details.
Which part of "anyone who is not a Musk yes-man has already been fired or quit" are you having trouble with?
1) the sycophant who loves authoritarian institutions; the "true believers"
and
2) the young, brilliant visa holder who was the talk of his parents' social circle in Hyderabad three years ago when he graduated and was able to get on board at a household-name NorCal tech company, but who is now being abused by the employer who sponsors the thing that lets him stay in the US.
You'll always have type one; some humans simply love following a dolt. The second type is a result of our laws, and laws can be changed to keep people like Elon from taking advantage of workers.
The Twitter takeover (and subsequent layoffs, ultimatum, etc) happened in late 2022.[0]
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon...
1) They come from places that have much lower pay for software engineers. Seriously, people forget just how much more American tech companies pay their devs than just about anywhere else. That means that you can wave a smaller pay package in front of them and they'll be more likely to take it. Replacements from local labor markets are more likely to know what they're actually worth.
2) If they aren't making you 100% happy and they're at-will employees, you can hang their entire lives over their heads. Do you want to have to pack up everything in a few weeks and move back to your home country in shame after your families sacrificed so much to get you here? No? Sounds like you'd better sleep in that conference-room-turned-bedroom, then, and be ready to work 90 hour weeks until this company's in the black.
It's a trust and safety incident now, but it never should have been.
In other words, he destroyed it.
That said, outage frequency did rise following the mass layoffs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/technology/twitter-outage...
Why would you expect the website to stop running though? Keeping a site running with a smaller crew is easy amd baked in - all organizations with >10 engineers do this frequently, over the holidays or Lunar New year. What's harder is building new features at the same pace and quality as a larger engineering team.
Honestly it is only somewhat surprising to me that no one noticed the error ahead of time. On the one hand, this is the type of mistake I do see in reviews from time to time... usually in the form of a regex that is not anchored to the start of the string, or perhaps it uses a non escaped period which of course means "any character" in regex. On the other hand, it is revealing about the kinds of controls in place that it got through.
nothing more dangerous than "oh, that's easy, let's push it straight to prod"
"Looks good generally but this will serialize incorrectly if a date is ever negative."
<... pause while everyone digests that...>
"Why would a date ever be negative?"
Noone could think of a reason a date would ever be negative. The resulting code push cost millions in a single day.
[1] I was on the call because I was the SRE[2] responsible for doing the release
[2] We didn't call ourselves SREs because it was like 2001 and that terminology hadn't caught on yet. We called ourselves "Installmeisters" believe it or not.
It cost millions, because the serialization corrupted the USD treasury curve when we wrote it to the database, which meant that even though the code was reverted quickly, for a while no derivatives (like literally no derivatives) in the whole of the trading part of a big IB could price (because essentially all derivatives were priced in dollars using some sort of discounted cash flow mechanism which relies on the USD treasury curve). No price means no risk, because how you calculate risk of a derivative is by finding the underlyers, shocking those underlyers a little bit and calculating the new price (essentially an empirical method of finding the derivative of price with respect to each of those things).
But also, I can’t help but to think even /\w+\.twitter\.com/ will match unexpected domains like foo.twitter.com.evil.ai. I already gave you the hint it needs to be anchored!
Not particularly different from Bluesky allowing one guy to own all of S3.
This is what happens when you "cut the fat" and are left with an adversely-selected[1], skeleton crew of "hard core engineers." The site was never going to fail all at once, instead, it's a death by a thousand cuts and suboptimal engineering.
1. No disrespect to current Twitter engineers who can't leave easily, or believe in the mew mission. However those who survived layoffs but could leave have left.
LinkedIn has its problems too. I would say it's the least bad among the two.
It'll have a long way to fall... the total userbase is still around the same order of magnitude as the population of the United States. But when I read stories of decisions like this, I can't help but think that it indicates the adults are no longer in the room, and a 300-million-plus userbase becomes a massive target surface if it's being run by a team that doesn't really grok the Internet...
Definitely recommend closing your account if you're on the fence. Don't move to bluesky or whatever, just take this opportunity to cut all this crap out of your life. You don't need it.
People worry about what (web caused) divisive propaganda, erosion of social skills, and attention grabbing is doing to us — and I agree those are all real and serious threats — but the lack of boredom is worries me the most.
Please, no one tell them. It's funnier the longer it goes on. It's been like this since at least October (I told a friend on Telegram this), but it had already been like this for some months by then.
Extra fun, I asked gpt-4-0125-preview *:
Explain this regex: [a-zA-Z0-9\.\-]+\.([a-zA-Z]{r,63})
And part of the explanation was to fix the bug. Well, almost, it removed the () in the process, but it did know what was wrong.
When your AI's error can be explained by someone else's AI…
* Why this model? Because the https://chat.openai.com is currently throwing me the error: "You've reached the current usage cap for GPT-4. You can continue with the default model now, or try again later. Learn more" even though I've selected 3.5 in the popup, and my earlier attempt to use ChatGPT to give myself a PAYG chat interface to all the models was done when gpt-4-0125-preview was the best one available.
edit: from the responses looks like I was wrong; the urls still point to `carfatwitter.com`. Leaving my comment up in case others were confused like me.
e.g "https://twitter.com/{acc}/status/{id}" -> "https://x.com/{acc}/status/{id}".
So if you post "https://carfatwitter.com/scam" it will be rewritten to "https://carfax.com/scam". Essentially search and replace of twitter.com -> x.com, 's/x.com/twitter.com/g'.
Note I have no direct experience with this, it's just the only way this makes sense as a phishing vector. The alternative is that it is being presented as a phishing vector, but was never actually useful as such, and people are just jumping up to yell about a security issue without it actually being one. That happens too.
What am I missing?
Also, the article says:
> The domain “ametwitter.com” already redirects to the real americanexpress.com.
But it does not here.
Unless Twitter just fixed it within 1 hour, I think the author should mention it has been fixed (edit: or that it was limited to certain platform [iOS?], since it's not reproducible on web at least.)
> X eventually realized the issue and rolled out a patch later that same day for some of the domains affected by this change. "Netflitwitter.com" no longer shows up as "Netflix.com" for example.
> However, Mashable can confirm that the X for iOS app is currently still changing many other references of "Twitter.com" to "X.com." We noticed that in one instance we found, the change was happening when "Twitter.com" was being used in a subdomain for another URL.
> Update: It appears Twitter/X has corrected its mistake, and no longer truncates any domain ending in “twitter.com” to “x.com.”
Reasonable to doubt if this ever was thing as this seemed to only exist on iOS and due to the direction this went it didn't really do anything. Probably different if it had gone x -> twitter
new_host = host.replace( /twitter\.com/, “x.com” )
(I wonder if they have escaped the period?)I'm in awe. Does Twitter have any software developers left, or is it just Elon's nephew working his way through W3Schools?
It is a borderline racist trope that keeps being repeated (mostly by ex-Twitter developers with a chip on their shoulder) without any hard proof. It is equally likely they are upset over a lack of solidarity in quitting and are perpetuating a lie based on someone's citizenship status.
Does the text only get replaced, and the underlying link stays intact? Surely not?
Otherwise, the link would still go to fedex.com.
That is exactly what happens.
I’m not even sure his nephew is reading W3Schools.
In case you’re reading this, you may have missed this article:
Once you navigate to the link it will be the actual link in the URL bar however.
But this is an easy miss for people after they have already navigated to the link from twitter thinking it's a legitimate link.
I'm not sure what keywords I'd use to find an extension like that.
So, a plan with no drawbacks?
> it would make Google mad, so it won't happen.
Google doesn't control which browser extensions get written?
Please use your Microsoft gaming account to login to my phishing site, xbotwitter.com
Not many people in the field actually understand protocols at the RFC level. That's the real crux.
Possibly, as with the extremely 90s-feeling 'X' name, Musk is simply introducing retro bugs, to attract internet hipsters :)
Anyway some engineer wrote this change and deployed it. The product process failed though, as did the testing process. Rollback was a mess too, given this change was visible for hours (days?)
Twitter was not a marvel of engineering pre-Elon, despite the fantasy arrogant former developers keep perpetuating. Their infrastructure was barely held together with duct tape.
Something new on twitter breaks every week. It's wild.
There used to be a bug that wreaked havoc for a short time where you could force anybody to follow you. At the time I don't recall people blaming Twitter's leadership or culture--it was just a bug because software sometimes has bugs.
Yeah, I have. On multiple occasions before Musk took over, Twitter also had bugs.
Even if you think firing like 6/7th of Twitter's staff (or whatever) was a mistake, there's really no arguing that they're making more visible product changes than they have in years. That means that bugs happen. And frankly...proving that a tech company doesn't need that level of bloat is a valuable lesson for the entire software industry. If they overshot and have X% more bugs for now, that's fine. They'll still be dramatically leaner than before.
With this line of thinking, I could say climate change isn't happening because of the temperature outside my house.
I don't care at all, and am just reacting to the phenomenon of folks going "it's definitely worse now, and I know, because I used the product before". OK, great...I used the product before too, and don't perceive that to be true.
Making visible product changes is the easiest thing to do in software.
Yeah, this wasn't a simple staff reduction. Twitter fired something like 80% (?) of their employees. By conventional wisdom, they should have gone down hard and never recovered. There are lots of people in this comment thread who are (dubiously) trying to make the case that they did.
The Twitter example, for better or worse, revealed that tech companies are not just a little bit redundantly staffed...they're employing tons of people who effecitvely just make work for each other.
I've been arguing since the purge that Twitter was in the "Wile E Coyote ran off the cliff and is still treading air" phase, but that argument is getting harder and harder to justify as Twitter somehow stays alive. How could firing all those people really do nothing to the operational success of the company? What were they all doing? Companies don't hire people where they have nothing for them to do. I look at my (BigTech) company and everyone is running around like crazy with 3-5X more tasks in their backlog than they can possibly do. We always need more people. How do you get rid of 80% and just carry on??? Are they all just writing TPS reports for each other to read?
* project is done to 85% effectiveness by <= 1 FTE
* company is flush with cash, and can hire someone to backfill that last 15%
* new person is not fully occupied backfilling that 15%, and therefore *finds new things to do*...which creates more projects that are done to 85% effectiveness
* goto step 1
Also, of course, as companies mature, they inevitably start moving down the cost-effectiveness graph, and taking on projects with lower and lower expected value. There are all sorts of reasons for this, ranging from valid ("this effort might pay off 10x"), to pathological ("if my team doesn't grow, I don't get a promotion").Anyway, shovel enough money into the boiler during the "hypergrowth" phase, and you can easily end up with lots of people who are all very busy, but just not productive.
I think it's still an open question whether the business is damaged irrecoverably. I guess now they don't have the same reporting requirements, as a private company, but everything I've read suggests they're losing as much money as ever.
Although... you can certainly imagine a world where they both avoided infrastructure-death and managed to sustain the business (not pissing off advertisers, not pissing off power users, no pointless rebrands, etc).
This bug has been happening since the beginning of time. I saw that constantly pre-musk
Today the bugs are back. Things are constantly a problem. This isn't a "well all software has bugs" -- yeah true, but somehow for 7 years twitter was bug-free. Or rather the bugs were quickly caught and fixed. And now... nothing.
Musk got rid of all guardrails, and now we face the consequences.
- Twitter staff were needed - Twitter will fail if the firings continued - He just fired all these useful people
But at the end of the day, Twitter/X is still the same exact thing and runs exactly the same way. It does prove that firing all the slack can change very little but it's a good narrative to cry about Elon Musk and his "sinking soonTM ship".
I find it quite bizarre how some people still try to push some narrative about the site being broken. It's not more broken it was before the takeover outside the odd Spaces dropout (which is a new feature so doesn't really count), but is now better serving its actual mission as an actually unbiased speech platform, radical as that is in the current day. Now X just needs to stay unchanged for ten years to overcome any competition.
And now I click Install in the App Store and "something goes wrong". Simply can’t install it.
There must be UIKit people remaining at X, after all they’re updating the iOS app which must share the same code as the Mac app. But for some reason they don’t update, but leave a broken, uninstallable app on the App Store.
Unfortunately the CTO also owns the company.
I think Elon has kind of demonstrated that if you just keep stating that you did something with confidence long enough, some people will actually believe it.
So I'm not falling for his bullshit again. But I suppose that's why he wants to own the world's biggest megaphone — to ensure he doesn't run out of us suckers.
I'm very glad I didn't now, because I'm pretty convinced I would have done this half-baked quasi-self-driving feature and probably be dead, or worse killed someone else.
[1] I own a few ETFs that probably buys Tesla stock, so indirectly sure.
These aren't the confident boasts of a charlatan, we have very concrete proof this happened.
Moreover, I don't even know that I buy the idea that the CEO is really the reason for any company's success; are we going to claim that Bill Gates is responsible for the success of desktop computing? I mean, you can if you want but I would not personally say that. I think it's a combination of good marketing, right-place-right-time, and happening to hire the right people for the job.
Even before SpaceX got off the ground, since I was a kid, people have been complaining at how little NASA was accomplishing, so I think someone breaking into the commercial space flight was inevitable. Elon probably does deserve a bit of credit for funding it when he did but I'm not convinced that he was uniquely qualified to to it, and I absolutely reject the notion that "because he was successful with some businesses, he's going to save the world".
He also lies. A lot. Like, more often than he tells the truth. He just makes shit up. He has claimed we will have self-driving cars "next year" for the last 6 years. He has repeatedly claimed that it's something we can do "today". He claimed that the Boring Company can "pay for itself with brick production".
All of this to me kind of implies his success is more stochastic than any kind of eccentric genius.
[1] https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/In-Gear/2015/0312/Tesla-b...
Lying is pretty easy, and I can think of lots of habitual liars that I also think are very stupid. Without naming anyone specific, think of any politician that you dislike.
He did, but that doesn't come close to the whole story:
• July 1, 2003, Incorporated by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning
…
• August 2007, Eberhard was asked to step down by the board; Michael Marks was brought in as interim CEO
• December 2007, Ze'ev Drori became CEO and President
• May 2008, "The Truth About Cars" website launched a "Tesla Death Watch", as Tesla needed another round of financing to survive
• October 2008, Musk succeeded Drori as CEO and fired 25% of Tesla employees
Leading to:
• By January 2009, Tesla had raised US$187 million ($70 million from Musk) and delivered 147 cars.
Not 147 thousand, just 147. After 5.5 years.
> I don't even know that I buy the idea that the CEO is really the reason for any company's success; are we going to claim that Bill Gates is responsible for the success of desktop computing? I mean, you can if you want but I would not personally say that. I think it's a combination of good marketing, right-place-right-time, and happening to hire the right people for the job.
I think it's all those things, plus luck and skill. Likewise for all the other CEOs out there. It is the opposite side of the same coin as complaining that Musk didn't really found Tesla — yup, he wasn't in the room with Eberhard and Tarpenning, but it was Musk's choices and actions as leader which turned the company from "Tesla Death Watch" to a viable business rather than choosing to close it down and sell off the assets to compensate the shareholders, which would not have been unreasonable given how many people at the time (and even today) are going "Batteries? Pah! Give us hydrogen!" for whatever reason.
> Even before SpaceX got off the ground, since I was a kid, people have been complaining at how little NASA was accomplishing, so I think someone breaking into the commercial space flight was inevitable. Elon probably does deserve a bit of credit for funding it when he did but I'm not convinced that he was uniquely qualified to to it,
I'm excited to see what Relativity Space and Rocket Lab do in this space.
Conversely, Blue Origin (founded 18 months before SpaceX) hasn't done anything impressive.
Musk's qualification sure isn't unique, but that doesn't mean it's universal either.
> and I absolutely reject the notion that "because he was successful with some businesses, he's going to save the world".
Agreed; some of his recent hubris does seem related specifically to this.
> He also lies. A lot. Like, more often than he tells the truth. He just makes shit up. He has claimed we will have self-driving cars "next year" for the last 6 years. He has repeatedly claimed that it's something we can do "today". He claimed that the Boring Company can "pay for itself with brick production".
> All of this to me kind of implies his success is more stochastic than any kind of eccentric genius.
There's a phrase about putting people on pedestals, and the view from those on the ground looking up.
I view him as being a relatively unfiltered stochastic genius. D&D aligment, chaotic neutral. He may only be half as smart as he thinks he is, but he's not actually an idiot, just wildly (and in some cases horrifyingly) over-optimistic.
And his successes are all directly tied to the same personality traits as his failures: he has an idea, he won't let go of it, so he keeps bashing at it until progress happens. And he's an effective salesman so he can bring investors along for that ride.
Sure, maybe I was being overly simplistic, Tesla did grow under his watch so he probably deserves some credit for it. Again, though, I'm not sure how much the CEO actually has to do with that stuff, and I really don't believe that he was directly involved with the engineering.
> Agreed; some of his recent hubris does seem related specifically to this.
What really bothers me are his attempts to intervene in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, to a point where I think that the DHS might need to investigate his bank transactions. I must have missed the election where we decided to choose him to lead the ministry of defense.
> I view him as being a relatively unfiltered stochastic genius.
How much of this is "genius" and how much is just "a stopped clock being right twice a day"? I'm not going to pretend to know, but I could probably write a markov chain to generate a dozen ideas for a product, and if one of them happens to be successful, does that imply that the markov chain is some kind of complicated genius?
I think the way he's handled Twitter has demonstrated that he might not be the genius we thought; I wonder how many of his dumb ideas were quietly rejected when he had some oversight; if nothing else he had to answer to investors and whatnot with Tesla and SpaceX and the like. With Twitter, it's more of a dictatorship and it's a mess.
Reminiscent of George Lucas and the first Star Wars trilogy (IV-VI) versus the second (I-III): in one he had people around him pushing back (being part of a team), and the other he basically had carte blanche.
I think it's a mistake to think that most notable things are the result of "one person". Most big projects, good or bad, are a group effort, and which is why it really bothers me that people act like Elon is singularly responsible for every cool thing to come out of SpaceX or Tesla.
I've played with Markov chains, and… no. While you can totally generate some stuff with them, they're not even close to the level of ChatGPT — and ChatGPT is the reference point I use these days for "are you sure you know about this subject?", in part due to someone else describing it as "mansplaining as a service". For a lot of the stuff Musk suggests which horrifies domain experts (like how the tunnels are so narrow that if a car catches fire the people in it can't get out), what he says is stuff I'd put in this category.
But he seems to have more lucid and self-aware moments besides those, and many of which are also things which are more mocked than being horrifying (e.g. powered vertical landing to reuse rockets). It comes across to me (not a psychologist) as something of a bipolar personality — or as if some of his ideas resulted from snorting a white powdered stimulant (a category which includes caffeine, unwise as that is).
Even before ChatGPT you had things like Context Free Grammars [1] that could give results kind of like GPT, superficially. You could certainly get it to generate a bunch of sentences that could be used like business ideas. That's kind of what I was going for.
> powered vertical landing to reuse rockets
Most of your points are fair, but I reject that this is actually a clever thing on Musk's end. NASA experimented with reusable rockets in the 60's. The X-15, for example, while slightly different, demonstrates that this was something being toyed with quite awhile ago.
No doubt, SpaceX's achievement here is notable and cool, and to whatever extent Elon helped with that he deserves credit. But I think "having the idea" does not really count.
Indeed.
But between this and what you say of CFG generators, I think you misunderstood me.
He didn't just have the idea, he got it to work.
If it was just ideas that counted, I've got one for 3D printing diamond with CVD, and metal with electro-deposition, and a way to radically improve Farnsworth-type fusion.
You'll note I'm not even the most famous person with my own name, let alone for any of those things.
I guess what I was trying to say in regards to a reusable rocket is that it wasn't an idea that people laughed at. It's an idea that's pretty obvious: rockets are expensive, the way that the previous rocket stuff had worked is pretty wasteful, wouldn't it better if we can reuse more?
So hiring a bunch of engineers to build an obvious idea just doesn't impress me that much. The engineering impresses me, no doubt some very clever did something very cool, but I'm just not 100% sold that Elon deserves the lion's share of the credit on this.
And, as I stated in a sibling thread, he lies all the time. He just makes a lot of shit up. He acts like self driving cars are just around the corner, he pretends that the hyperloop is basically done, he says there's so much shit "we can do today". He calls people pedophiles if they don't want to use his stupid little submarine. There's overconfidence, and then there's grifting investors, and I think at this point it's thoroughly moved to the latter.
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39991316.
Edit: I suppose I need to add that this is not a muskpoint, it's just the principle of HN to try not to repeat things this much. Especially when the repetition is indignation-fueled.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
This makes no sense. The court forced him to pay the shareholders the agreed upon price. Consequently, the shareholders were paid, and now they're no longer shareholders. Why would they regret that?
(I'm grasping at straws, mostly because Elon's ability to spite the shareholders is fairly limited.)
That is assuming Muskbis doing this purposely.
Man, I swear media literacy is trash anymore.
Dorsey was not part of the lawsuit and in fact rolled over his Twitter shares with the acquisition instead of taking the payout, so again the "Revenge for being forced to honor his word at buying Twitter" theory makes no sense.
Nobody has yet made sense of that nonsensical theory.
Sometimes leadership just feels the need to put their stamp on things so everyone knows they're there.
(And when the answer is "someone knows how to pull his strings and push his buttons", that makes me more worried about prompt injection in organic intelligence than the same attack in artificial intelligence).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHTc77PTLVI&t=101s
Interviewer: Did you [buy Twitter] because you thought a court would make you do that?
Musk: Yes.
he spent half a year in court trying to get out the deal, and lost. so you probably shouldn't assume actually buying twitter was really his plan.
he bought a smaller stake first to get some influence and then offered to buy the rest when it didn't buy him the influence he hoped it would, presumably with no intention of following through. then the board called his bluff.
Musks multiple unforced fumbles might be the biggest boneheaded blunders in corporate history
I do believe he's just been obsessed with having x.com since he got it in the 90s and had a chance to use it and jumped at it just to put his own imprinter on the site.
He also wants to make X into an "everything" app where you'll do shopping, calls, chat with friends, send payments, etc. And if that was pulled off successfully it doesn't seem like the craziest thing to distance from the Twitter brand which has long been associated as an app primarily for news and shitposting? But he has a long way to go to get people to think of it as anything other than what it was before. Everyone on the platform is still calling it Twitter and refers to posts as tweets.
I feel like the way to go there would have been closer to the Meta/Facebook brand hierarchy.
X is the platform / super app and Twitter is the first app within X. Twitter accounts become X accounts but you still use them to Tweet on Twitter.
The destruction of the Twitter branding seems more out of spite than business development goals. Really the whole follow through of the Twitter purchase reeks of spite and destruction rather than building something new of value.
But I'm not a successful billionaire so I'm probably wrong.
If X became the first in America it would be quite powerful, but IMHO is very unlikely.
Google kills and relaunches products so often that I'm genuinely surprised Google Photos still exists and that my old data from when I had a Nexus 5 is still there, but I guess that's fair, I did forget them.
Microsoft doesn't have mobile payments but they do provide photo sharing via OneDrive.
FB/Whatsapp ofc is a massive one, and is the goto everything app globally outside of China and North America.
Most of these platforms are targeting developing countries now because any growth in market share that could be extracted in the west has been extracted.
This is why most ads made by Google, Meta, MS, etc tend to target the Indian, ASEAN, or Brazil markets now, and a lot of investment in localization is happening (eg. Meta/FB/Whatsapp partners with local telcos to install it's apps by default and integrate with telco platforms, Google has constantly massive ad campaigns in India, etc)
Meta is truly a behemoth
Specifically, Skoda — and when they did the transition, their adverts were very much aware of the need for an image change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWTJ_TPraLQ
"Have you heard about the new 16-valve Skoda? It's got eight valves in the engine and eight in the radio."
"How do you double the value of a Skoda? Fill the fuel tank."
Etc.
Or just incompetence. Plenty of that. Assuming just because he is billionaire that he's competent at everything related to any company and the reason for failure is something else is silly.
He had no idea what the fuck he is doing and he fucked up.
Oh there is likely plenty of that too. But I think there was at least some malice in being forced to follow through on his overvalued purchase offer, in the treatment of "blue check" verified accounts, in the treatment of laid-off employees and those who remained or tried to stick it out, and in the destruction of the Twitter brand.
> Assuming just because he is billionaire that he's competent at everything related to any company and the reason for failure is something else is silly.
Yes, that part was tongue-in-cheek.
[0] https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/10/15949862/elon-musk-x-com-...
And even then it usually doesn't work. It's _very_ unusual for full-scale rebrands of consumer-facing companies, where the original brand is utterly expunged, to stick.
It's not "X".
Not sure specifically why Mr. Musk lost the thread but very little involving Twitter has demonstrated whatever qualities were involved in the "positive" reputation he'd earned via Tesla and SpaceX.
The one thing for which I am thankful is that his various decisions have completely removed Twitter from my life, but that doesn't seem like the sort of outcome one wants for the platform.