Turchin's Terrifying Predictions
donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.com
donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.com
If it ain't, it looks like this is a guy who can be used for that purpose. I guess it all depends on how wedded he is to his 'terrifying predictions'? I too am interested to know what his theory makes of the period after the Great Depression.
I'm wary, put it that way. So often, this message is not an alarm bell, but a payload. You're meant to take on board his assumptions, but they can be suspect. He might be sincere.
Who cares what the gamed metrics say when Housing and food and education are pretty unaffordable for some people, arguably for a whole generation of Americans. The problem is worse outside of stem. Even inside stem jobs I see people choosing to stay childless due to the expense, literally planning to die young because retirement planning seems like a crazy ideal.
It’s not everyone but how many do we need to say there’s a problem? Not sure how people can still be in denial about these things.
To maintain his buying power since 1963, a blue-collar production worker should be earning about $5000 a week 60 years later. That just does not occur.
It's the main reason that the US is no longer as rich and powerful as it was in the 1960s. If the 'working man' is not able to spend as much as he once could, the economy is a lot weaker than it should have been.
East Asian cities are far more peaceful, safe, and advanced than any north american/europe counterpart. Much of the infrastructure in the latter are outdated, old, rustic even as the historical look & feel triumphs over efficiency. Whereas cities like Singapore blows backward cities like Vancouver out of the water on civic report card.
Even in cities widely marketed as a desirable "western liberal progressive bastions" are filled with corruption, ideological drives from special interest groups (ex. NIMBY/YIMBY), that makes it impossible for any sort of progress to happen at the rate that is beneficial to the citizens. Especially now we had the pendulum of compassion swing so far towards the left to the point of ridiculousness (ex. math is racist, 1x1=2) that everybody is so worried about losing their jobs about going against the narrative of their employers that they can't/won't introduce homeostasis when the equilibrium is knocked off. It's only NOW that this pendulum is swinging to the far right but extreme swings are not what produces peaceful progressive societies, they produce violence because of the absurdities that followers believe about themselves to support whatever narrative is being disseminated through their favourite echo chambers.
Most of the west's rich (double to five digit millionaires) are sending their offsprings to Singapore, not Paris or Berlin.
Both accurately predicted the rise of oppressive society that attempts to eliminate all sources of complexity, contradiction, and confusion to ensure uncomplicated happiness for all its citizens by making them believe excitement is happiness and chaos, boredom and order is oppressive (ironically).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_quality_of_life_indices
Wikipedia also has some data about immigration to Singapore
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Singapore
My dad was a demographer. There’s lots of demographic data, but it’s really hard to analyze. Migration is influenced as much (in many cases more) by policy than by personal preference.
Not just East Asian. In West Asian cities too, things are far more upmarket. The United Arab Emirates, for example, have cities that are far and away better in most respects than Western cities. Cleaner, tidier, more advanced buildings, bigger shopping centres, etc.
In fact, dare I point out the fourth turning which was written in the 1990s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio...
Now lets just go to the fourth turning predictions. Covid was predicted. This world war tension mainly between india and china; but with russia/ukraine as backdrop. This isn't significant enough for the end of the Millennial Saeculum, assuming the theory is set to repeat.
But lets consider, world war is a given in asia, china will shed their incels, and end this saeculum. But what comes after? By about 2030 we're going back to the 'american high' or the 'gilded age'. Optimism is to be expected bigtime.
Terrifying followed by grand success.