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Comment by ryandrake | Hacker News Reader

> The national security establishment is getting increasingly freaked out about the risk of a naval war with China.

I guess military professionals might know things we don’t, but doesn’t a hot war with China strike everyone else as utterly ridiculous? China’s economy is so inextricably intertwined with those of the rest of the world, it would make no sense for either side. Mutually assured economic destruction.

Yes, I know there are US hawk politicians constantly banging on the “China war” drums, but it seems so silly.

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A war in Europe probably seemed equally ridiculous in 1914, and yet it happened. The concern is that Xi Jinping has purged all rivals and has assumed personal control of all key strategic decisions. We don't know what's really going on but he seems increasingly prone to miscalculations and unwise decisions. There are reasons to suspect that yes-men in the inner circle are telling him what he wants to hear and he is acting based on faulty data. Thus there is a very real risk regardless of how silly the situation might seem to an unbiased observer.

> A war in Europe probably seemed equally ridiculous in 1914

Europe leading up to WWI was not exactly a land of peace and harmony. There were a number of hot wars in the years leading up to WWI.

> Europe leading up to WWI was not exactly a land of peace and harmony

As opposed to the South China Sea? (Keep in mind, we’re comparing pre- and post-nuclear strategy.)

Like Russia and Ukraine.

All China has to do is not invade Taiwan and there won’t be a war.

Or West to accept that sometimes countries claim things back.

The point isn’t the war. The point is the impossibility of war. If China gets a radical leader, they might start a hot war with the US over Taiwan or something. But not if the US has them clearly outgunned. It’s as much in China’s interest as the US’s.

This. Being on equal-or-better footing acts as a deterrent. Same reason countries don't keep all of their warfare technologies secret, e.g. the DoD makes press releases about new technologies and will publish just enough specs for an adversary to figure out that it defeats some advantage they had thought they had.

War is mutually assured EVERYTHING destruction. It is an anomaly that WW2 resulted in winners and losers. WW1 is more typical; everyone loses in a war.

But that didn’t stop Napoleon from invading Russia or Hitler from invading the USSR. If you peel back all the rhetoric, they did it because they thought it would be a pushover and a quick victory.

It is tempting to go to war if all your yes men tell you you will be at the enemy’s capitol before winter.

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