The 2nd Demographic Transition

Here’s my recipe for getting fertility over 2:

1. Start with the Scandinavian model 2. Make sure parental leave covers all of the first year. Parental leave should cover the full salary. If you didn’t have a job before having the first child, the minimum payout should be generous. 3. Kindergarten should be guaranteed to be available from 1yo until school starts, and it should be free 4. 30 hour work week, either for everyone or for parents until the youngest child is in 2nd grade.

I don’t think you’ll start to see the benefits until you’ve got all the pieces in place.

The time/energy equation just doesn’t add up after the second kid, until perhaps the second kid is in school. I do know some people who has had a late third child, but by that point many parents are getting well into their forties or fifties and may feel too old to have a child.

You can also get some really perverse incentives if you’re getting a higher education where it doesn’t make sense to have the first child until you’ve worked for a few years.

It should be possible to get good compensation for parental leave even if you have a child first thing after graduating, if that’s what you want to do. Perhaps you could get compensated based on expected salary or by providing a job offer as documentation.