Comment by speedylight | Hacker News Reader

Comment by speedylight | Hacker News Reader

You know I am someone who likes to push the envelope near the point of breaking just to observe what would happen, and I more or less feel the same about AI; that said I can’t help but wonder how ill prepared we all are when such this shift to near total automation eventually happens.

Companies gravitate towards cheap, and maximally efficient labor… currently the best way to achieve that if you’re a US business is to outsource it oversees, ergo India and customer support.

What will happen when people not only compete against each other for work, but also against machines? (That probably already happens to an extent, I am talking systemic) It’s not even remotely fair for an individual to have to compete in this kind of environment.

There several solutions that I can think of (By “we” I mean the US in this case).

1. We can turn into a welfare state and start paying everyone a fixed income. 2. We could augment ourselves with technology that enhances cognitive and physical abilities, leveling the playing field with AI. 3. We could put performance limits on enterprise computer hardware and put a ceiling on the emergent capabilities of AI and therefore reduce the barrier to fairly compete.

I personally I’m gonna open up a bakery in France and just hope you all manage ok.

I'm skeptical that AI will automate away any truly valuable labor, but even assuming it will - what do you think is different this time compared to say, the Industrial Revolution?

That period rapid saw automation and reduction of cost of many, many peoples' livelihoods, but society is unarguably better for it. Eventually people were freed up to do higher-order work.

> I personally I’m gonna open up a bakery in France and just hope you all manage ok.

Sorry pal, smaller French (and EU) bakeries were decimated last year by soaring energy costs. Along with many real jobs.

Actually it seems rising energy prices are much more effective to shrink workforce than AI...

> Companies gravitate towards cheap, and maximally efficient labor… currently the best way to achieve that if you’re a US business is to outsource it oversees, ergo India and customer support.

Who do restaurants still have waiters/waitresses if you can just order the food on the tablet at the table? Probably because some research shows the average person going out to eat is probably a certain age and wants the "human experience" and might "undersell" (not get upsold) if they just order themselves. Might get frustrated and order less.

4. The difference between the "haves" vs the "have nots" will blow up exponentially, augmented by AI computing power used unilaterally. A new gilded age will form where the "have-nots" once again become domestic servants, like serfs serving their techno-feudal lords.

Insanely relevant thread from 2018, the article is great and worth the read:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17350645

#3 is impossible because you are talking about lot of value and lot of motivations. If we stop, as example, China is not going to stop, etc. This is like the arm race, no one will stop developing and whoever limit itself, will lose big at the end #1 is tough one. Two issues, human need to be busy with something. While not needing to work seems great, but long term it makes us depressed, drug addict, and we lose our skill and become weaker and dumb. Second issue is whoever pays you, can tell you what to do or not. A huge wellfare system moves power from people to state, and can kill democracy. However,in limited version is generally better than starving people. #2 seems to be a decent option

So some version of #1 and #2?

What will happen when people not only compete against each other for work, but also against machines?

The structure of capitalism allocates human workers away from things machines are better at, the market value of that product comes down, the owner of the machines builds wealth. Standard stuff.

The unsolved part is how to more gracefully transition human workers. We have usually done a rotten job at that, but if change really will continue to accelerate it will become a core competency for a nation.

1) You can either have a good welfare state or a lot of illegal immigrants. It is not possible to have both. 2) That’s Sci-Fi and not an action item. 3) That’s government overreach with all the nice unintended consequences they usually come with.

Conclusion: Fix the illegal immigration problem or good luck winning any election after the chicken have come home.

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