I think DOS/Windows is a pretty good analog, and it was very successful.
These days, desktop computers are as ubiquitous as they are ever going to get, and few people are demanding a replacement for the traditional Windows UI on the desktop. Unlike DOS, what Microsoft has is good enough for the mass desktop/laptop market. The fact that it's not good enough for mobile does not in any way justify tinkering with their successful desktop strategy. IMO, what we're seeing is yet another panicked, reactionary twitch from the Ballmer executive suite.