This was otherwise an interesting article.
This was otherwise an interesting article.
It’s even mentioned in the article that the airlines love flight miles because they can play with the redemptions to sell unused capacity for what the customer sees as real money. It also encourages loyalty.
To give you an example, a business class ticket from Seattle to Taipei with EVA (a very nice airline) is about $8000 round trip or $6000 one way. You can book it for 75,000 Aeroplan points one way. That is 1-2 credit card signups.
But Aeroplan also lets you have a stopover in the middle of a trip and lets you string together up to 6 flights and only pay based on the distance.
So you could do Seattle, do a layover in Taipei, have a stopover in Manila, stay a day in Singapore, and then land in Darwin Australia for 92,500. Which is closer to 2 credit cards, but still easily achievable in a month or two. But the value of that trip when I did something similar was closer to $12,000. Prices out at around $9000 for my test dates for the flights I did.
Now, you need to take many trips a year to do that as a single individual (which I am), but the referral streams for credit card signups are also very powerful, so get a Player 2 as it is called, and you can easily get 20-30% more on your signup bonuses and each person can also do the bonus.
And that is just business class. Once you start getting into First Class redemptions (hard to do, but the serious people manage it), the value can easily be the equivalent of a 12K for a simple round trip, yet alone stacking First Class products as many programs let you do.
Some of the pricing is also probably last minute. Points costs fall last minute, but cash prices rise. That boosts your cost per point, or CPP as we call it.
If you're specifically interested in Japan flights, I recommend checking out this podcast: https://thedailychurnpodcast.com/ep-58-how-to-book-ana-japan...
As far as general advice, many people acquire Chase UR points predominantly for Hyatt and acquire Amex MR predominantly for flights. If you're in 2 player mode then you earn points a lot faster because you can refer each other.
If you have a source of business expenses, it’s easy. With regular consumer spend it’s more challenging but doable.
We empathized time at destination. If you’re going for value, you target airline and other upgrades. Our focus being time, we usually targeted hotel redemptions. There used to be a path to “launder” AMEX points and convert to a multiple of Hilton points through airline programs.
I'm guessing (but could be wrong) that you would not actually have paid $60K for business class seats for your family had you not had points that would cover. (I have gotten really good deals using points for something I'd have paid for anyway--but it's been rare.)
If you have some specific flight that you pay for regularly, e.g. to visit family, then replacing that flight's average cost with points gives a concrete number on point value.
If you are using points to fly first class on a trip you would not be taking at all but for the point redemption, then the value gets a lot more muddled.
If you want higher ROI on spreadsheet hobby start using it for your own financial/retirement planning. Playing with numbers in that field can change outcomes by hundreds of thousands dollars.